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Biomedical subjects

H P Selker

Publications and source records attributed to H P Selker.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2001

The future of capitation: the physician role in managing change in practice.

Capitation-based reimbursement significantly influences the practice of medicine. As physicians, we need to assure that payment models do not jeopardize the care we provide when we accept higher levels of personal financial risk. In this paper, we review the literature relevant to capitation, consider the interaction of financial incentives with physician and medical risk, and conclude that primary care physicians need to work to assure that capitated systems incorporate checks and balances which protect both patients and providers. We offer the following proposals for individuals and groups considering capitated contracts: (1) reimbursement for primary care physicians should recognize both individual patient encounters and the administrative work of patient care management; (2) reimbursement for subspecialists should recognize both access to subspecialty knowledge and expertise as well as patient care encounters, but in some situations, subspecialists may provide the majority of care to individual patients and will be reimbursed as primary care providers; (3) groups of physicians should accept financial risk for patient care only if they have the tools and resources to manage the care; (4) physicians sharing risk for patient care should meet regularly to discuss care and resource management; and (5) physicians must disclose the financial relationships they have with health plans and medical care organizations, and engage patients and communities in discussions about resource allocation. As a payment model, capitation offers opportunities for primary care physicians to influence the future of health care by improving the management of resources at a local level.

Capitation Fee↗
PubMed2000

Missed diagnoses of acute cardiac ischemia in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Discharging patients with acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina from the emergency department because of missed diagnoses can have dire consequences. We studied the incidence of, factors related to, and clinical outcomes of failure to hospitalize patients with acute cardiac ischemia. METHODS: We analyzed clinical data from a multicenter, prospective clinical trial of all patients with chest pain or other symptoms suggesting acute cardiac ischemia who presented to the emergency departments of 10 U.S. hospitals. RESULTS: Of 10,689 patients, 17 percent ultimately met the criteria for acute cardiac ischemia (8 percent had acute myocardial infarction and 9 percent had unstable angina), 6 percent had stable angina, 21 percent had other cardiac problems, and 55 percent had noncardiac problems. Among the 889 patients with acute myocardial infarction, 19 (2.1 percent) were mistakenly discharged from the emergency department (95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 3.1 percent); among the 966 patients with unstable angina, 22 (2.3 percent) were mistakenly discharged (95 percent confidence interval, 1.3 to 3.2 percent). Multivariable analysis showed that patients who presented to the emergency department with acute cardiac ischemia were more likely not to be hospitalized if they were women less than 55 years old (odds ratio for discharge, 6.7; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.4 to 32.5), were nonwhite (odds ratio, 2.2; 1.1 to 4.3), reported shortness of breath as their chief symptom (odds ratio, 2.7; 1.1 to 6.5), or had a normal or nondiagnostic electrocardiogram (odds ratio, 3.3; 1.7 to 6.3). Patients with acute infarction were more likely not to be hospitalized if they were nonwhite (odds ratio for discharge, 4.5; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.8 to 11.8) or had a normal or nondiagnostic electrocardiogram (odds ratio, 7.7; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.9 to 20.2). For the patients with acute infarction, the risk-adjusted mortality ratio for those who were not hospitalized, as compared with those who were, was 1.9 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.7 to 5.2), and for the patients with unstable angina, it was 1.7 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.2 to 17.0). CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of patients who present to the emergency department with acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina who are not hospitalized is low, but the discharge of such patients is associated with increased mortality. Failure to hospitalize is related to race, sex, and the absence of typical features of cardiac ischemia. Continued efforts to reduce the number of missed diagnoses are warranted.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

The potential use of ECG-based prognostic instruments in clinical trials and cost-effectiveness analyses of new therapies in acute cardiac ischemia.

The dramatic improvements in outcomes in acute cardiac ischemia because of therapeutic advances has led to "diminishing returns" with increasingly intensive therapies. This article explores the potential of electrocardiograph (ECG)-based prognostic instruments to identify patients likely to benefit from intense regimens, even in the absence of overall average benefit in the population, with 2 clinical examples: 1) Reperfusion therapy in acute myocardial infarction (AMI); and 2) anticoagulation/antiplatelet therapy in unstable angina. Based on previously developed, ECG-based prognostic instruments we explored the distribution of potential benefits in individual patients from increasingly intense therapy in both AMI and unstable angina. Predictions were obtained on community-based patient samples with both AMI and unstable angina to examine the distribution of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. For both AMI and unstable angina, much of the benefit of intensifying therapy can be obtained by targeting a subgroup of patients that can be identified in multivariable dimensions by clinical and ECG characteristics. Treatment of these patients with more potent agents (such as hirudin or the glycoprotein inhibitors in unstable angina) is likely to be both effective and cost-effective. However, treatment of "low benefit" patients is unlikely to be effective or cost-effective, and some candidates for therapy are more likely to be harmed, than to benefit, by the more intensive regimens. Multivariable stratification can improve clinical and economic outcomes in acute cardiac ischemia, particularly when such models help identify "high benefit" patients early in their clinical course. Additionally, using validated models in the planning and execution of clinical trials of new therapies can improve the power of the trial and help target the therapies to patients most likely to benefit.

Angina, Unstable↗
PubMed2000

Acute cardiac ischemia in patients with cocaine-associated complaints: results of a multicenter trial.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To describe the characteristics of a large group of patients who presented to emergency departments with cocaine-associated symptoms consistent with acute cardiac ischemia (ACI) and to determine the incidence of confirmed ACI including acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in this population. METHODS: We performed a substudy on all patients in a multicenter prospective clinical trial (the Acute Cardiac Ischemia-Time Insensitive Predictive Instrument [ACI-TIPI] Clinical Trial) that enrolled ED patients with chest pain or other symptoms consistent with ACI including subjects with identified cocaine use. Demographic and clinical features, including initial and follow-up clinical data, ECGs, and tests to determine serum creatine kinase isoenzyme MB subunit concentrations, were analyzed. Diagnoses of AMI followed the World Health Organization criteria for AMI and of angina pectoris, the Canadian Cardiovascular Society Classification. RESULTS: Of the 10,689 patients enrolled in the trial, 293 (2.7%) had cocaine-associated complaints. Among the 10 participating hospitals, the incidence of patients with cocaine-associated symptoms varied from 0.3% to 8.4%. Only 6 patients (2.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76% to 4.4%) had a diagnosis of ACI; 4 (1.4%, 95% CI 0.37% to 3.5%) had unstable angina, and 2 (0.7%, 95% CI 0.08% to 2.4%) had AMI. Although patients with cocaine-induced complaints were as likely to be admitted to the coronary care unit compared with all study patients without cocaine use (14% versus 18%, P =.14, difference not significant), these patients were much less likely to have confirmed unstable angina (1.4% versus 9.3%, P <.001) or AMI (0. 7% versus 8.6%, P <.001). Compared with patients younger than 45 years, patients with cocaine usage were more likely to be admitted to the ICU (14% versus 8.0%, P =.0018) but less likely to have confirmed AMI (0.7% versus 2.8%, P =.033). CONCLUSION: Patients presenting to EDs with cocaine-associated chest pain or related symptoms infrequently had ACI, and even less so, AMI. This suggests the need for selectivity in the hospitalization of patients with such cocaine-associated symptoms.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed2000

National Heart Attack Alert Program position paper: chest pain centers and programs for the evaluation of acute cardiac ischemia.

The National Heart Attack Alert Program (NHAAP), which is coordinated by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), promotes the early detection and optimal treatment of patients with acute myocardial infarction and other acute coronary ischemic syndromes. The NHAAP, having observed the development and growth of chest pain centers in emergency departments with special interest, created a task force to evaluate such centers and make recommendations pertaining to the management of patients with acute cardiac ischemia. This position paper offers recommendations to assist emergency physicians in EDs, including those with chest pain centers, in providing comprehensive care for patients with acute cardiac ischemia.

Chest Pain↗
PubMed1998

Use of the acute cardiac ischemia time-insensitive predictive instrument (ACI-TIPI) to assist with triage of patients with chest pain or other symptoms suggestive of acute cardiac ischemia. A multicenter, controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 6 million U.S. patients present to emergency departments annually with symptoms suggesting acute cardiac ischemia. Triage decisions for these patients are important but remain difficult. OBJECTIVE: To test whether computerized prediction of the probability of acute ischemia, used with electrocardiography, improves the accuracy of triage decisions. DESIGN: Controlled clinical trial. SETTING: 10 hospital emergency departments in the midwestern, southeastern, and northeastern United States. PATIENTS: 10689 patients with chest pain or other symptoms suggestive of acute cardiac ischemia. INTERVENTION: The probability of acute ischemia predicted by the acute cardiac ischemia time-insensitive predictive instrument (ACI-TIPI), either automatically printed or not printed on patients' electrocardiograms. MEASUREMENTS: Emergency department triage to a coronary care unit (CCU), telemetry unit, ward, or home. Other measurements were the bed capacity of the CCU relative to that of the telemetry unit; training or supervision status of the triaging physician; and patient diagnoses and outcomes based on clinical, electrocardiographic, and creatine kinase data. RESULTS: For patients without cardiac ischemia, in hospitals with high-capacity CCUs and relatively low-capacity cardiac telemetry units, use of ACI-TIPI was associated with a reduction in CCU admissions from 15% to 12%, a change of -16% (95% CI, -30% to 0%), and an increase in emergency department discharges to home from 49% to 52%, a change of 6% (CI, 0% to 14%; overall P=0.09). Across all hospitals, for patients evaluated by unsupervised residents, use of ACI-TIPI was associated with a reduction in CCU admissions from 14% to 10%, a change of -32% (CI, -55% to 3%); a reduction in telemetry unit admissions from 39% to 31%, a change of -20% (CI, -34% to -2%); and an increase in discharges to home from 45% to 56%, a change of 25% (CI, 8% to 45%; overall P=0.008). Among patients with stable angina, in hospitals with high-capacity CCUs, use of ACI-TIPI was associated with a reduction in CCU admissions from 26% to 13%, a change of -50% (CI, -70% to -17%), and an increase in discharges to home from 20% to 22%, a change of 10% (CI, -29% to 71%; overall P=0.02). At hospitals with high-capacity telemetry units, use of ACI-TIPI was associated with a reduction in telemetry unit admissions from 68% to 59%, a change of -14% (CI, -27% to 1%), and an increase in emergency department discharges to home from 10% to 21%, a change of 100% (CI, 22% to 230%; overall P=0.02). Among patients with acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina, use of ACI-TIPI did not change appropriate admission (96%) to the CCU or telemetry unit at hospitals with high-capacity CCUs or telemetry units. CONCLUSIONS: Use of ACI-TIPI was associated with reduced hospitalization among emergency department patients without acute cardiac ischemia. This result varied as expected according to the CCU and cardiac telemetry unit capacities and physician supervision at individual hospitals. Appropriate admission for unstable angina or acute infarction was not affected. If ACI-TIPI is used widely in the United States, its potential incremental impact may be more than 200000 fewer unnecessary hospitalizations and more than 100000 fewer unnecessary CCU admissions.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1998

A national survey of emergency department chest pain centers in the United States.

Although chest pain centers are promoted as improving emergency cardiac care, no data exist on their structure and processes. This national study determines the 1995 prevalence rate for emergency department (ED)-based chest pain centers in the United States and compares organizational differences of EDs with and without such centers. A mail survey was directed to 476 EDs randomly selected from the American Hospital Association's database of metropolitan hospitals (n = 2,309); the response rate was 63%. The prevalence of chest pain centers was 22.5% (95% confidence interval 18% to 27%), which yielded a projection of 520 centers in the United States in 1995. EDs with centers had higher overall patient volumes, greater use of high-technology testing, lower treatment times for thrombolytic therapy, and more advertising (all p <0.05). Hospitals with centers had greater market competition and more beds per annual admissions, cardiac catheterization, and open heart surgery capability (all p <0.05). Logistic regression identified open heart surgery, high-admission volumes, and nonprofit status as independent predictors of hospitals having chest pain centers. Thus, chest pain centers have a moderate prevalence, offer more services and marketing efforts than standard EDs, and tend to be hosted by large nonprofit hospitals.

Angina Pectoris↗
PubMed1998

Insurance type and the transportation to emergency departments of patients with acute cardiac ischemia: the ACI-TIPI Trial Insurance Study.

The relationship of insurance type to treatment-seeking behavior (ie, the transportation to emergency departments of patients with symptoms suggestive of acute cardiac ischemia) was evaluated. The focus was on comparing patients belonging to a health maintenance organization (HMO) with patients who had indemnity insurance. Data were collected prospectively on 10,783 patients presenting to emergency departments of 10 adult care hospitals in the Eastern and Midwestern United States between April and December 1993 as part of a clinical trial. A total of 6,604 patients presented within 24 hours of symptom onset. Although these patients as a group had a wide range of demographic and clinical characteristics, persons belonging to an HMO and those with indemnity insurance were very similar. The main outcome measures were whether the patient was transported by ambulance and the duration of time from symptom onset to emergency department arrival. A hospital-matched sample of HMO-insured and indemnity-insured patients allowed multivariable regression: HMO membership was not associated with a different rate of ambulance use (odds ratio = 1.0; 95% confidence interval = 0.73, 1.35) or duration of time from symptom onset to emergency department presentation (6 minutes less, P = 0.8). HMO participation was not related to treatment-seeking behavior, as reflected by ambulance use and duration of time from symptom onset to emergency department arrival. However, studies of more constrained managed care organizations and of broader ranges of patients are needed.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Patient-specific predictions of outcomes in myocardial infarction for real-time emergency use: a thrombolytic predictive instrument.

BACKGROUND: Thrombolytic therapy can be life-saving in patients with acute myocardial infarction. However, if given too late or insufficiently selectively, it may provide little benefit but still cause serious complications and incur substantial costs. OBJECTIVE: To develop a thrombolytic predictive instrument for real-time use in emergency medical service settings that could 1) identify patients likely to benefit from thrombolysis and 2) facilitate the earliest possible use of this therapy. DESIGN: Creation and validation of logistic regression-based predictive instruments based on secondary analysis of clinical data. PATIENTS: 4911 patients who had acute myocardial infarction and ST-segment elevation on electrocardiogram; 3483 received thrombolytic therapy. MEASUREMENTS: Data were obtained from 13 major clinical trials and registries and directly from medical records, including electrocardiograms obtained at presentation. Input variables include presenting clinical and electrocardiography features; predictive models generate probabilities for acute (30-day) mortality if and if not treated with thrombolysis, 1-year mortality rates if and if not treated with thrombolysis, cardiac arrest if and if not treated with thrombolysis, thrombolysis-related intracranial hemorrhage, and thrombolysis-related major bleeding episode requiring transfusion. Together, these models constitute the thrombolytic predictive instrument. RESULTS: The predictive models generated the following mean predictions for patients in the Thrombolytic Predictive instrument Database: 30-day mortality rate, 7.1%; 1-year mortality rate, 10.9%; rate of cardiac arrest, 3.7%; rate of thrombolysis-related intracranial hemorrhage. 0.6%; and rate of other thrombolysis-related major bleeding episodes, 5.0%. They discriminated with between persons having and those not having the predicted outcome; areas under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve were between 0.77 and 0.84 for the five outcomes. Calibration between each instrument's predicted and observed served rates was excellent. Validation of the predictive instruments of 30-day and 1-year mortality, done on a separate test dataset, yielded areas under the ROC curve of 0.76 for each CONCLUSIONS: After the basic features of a clinical presentation are entered into a computerized electrocardiograph, the predictions of the thrombolytic predictive instrument can be printed on the electrocardiogram report. This decision aid may facilitate earlier and more appropriate use of thrombolytic therapy in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Cerebral Hemorrhage↗
PubMed1997

The physician's role in minimizing prehospital delay in patients at high risk for acute myocardial infarction: recommendations from the National Heart Attack Alert Program. Working Group on Educational Strategies To Prevent Prehospital Delay in Patients at High Risk for Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Physicians and other health care professionals play an important role in reducing the delay to treatment in patients who have an evolving acute myocardial infarction. A multidisciplinary working group has been convened by the National Heart Attack Alert Program (which is coordinated by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health) to address this concern. The working group's recommendations target specific groups of patients: those who are known to have coronary heart disease, atherosclerotic disease of the aorta or peripheral arteries, or cerebrovascular disease. The risk for acute myocardial infarction or death in such patients is five to seven times greater than that in the general population. The working group recommends that these high-risk patients be clearly informed about symptoms that they might have during a coronary occlusion, steps that they should take, the importance of contacting emergency medical services, the need to report to an appropriate facility quickly, treatment options that are available if they present early, and rewards of early treatment in terms of improved quality of life. These instructions should be reviewed frequently and reinforced with appropriate written material, and patients should be encouraged to have a plan and to rehearse it periodically. Because of the important role of the bystander in increasing or decreasing delay to treatment, family members and significant others should be included in all instruction. Finally, physicians' offices and clinics should devise systems to quickly assess patients who telephone or present with symptoms of a possible acute myocardial infarction.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1997

Hospital mortality in women and men with acute cardiac ischemia: a prospective multicenter study.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine gender differences in hospital mortality in patients with acute cardiac ischemia. BACKGROUND: It is unclear why women experience higher mortality from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) than men and whether this applies to all patients with acute ischemia. METHODS: We analyzed data from a prospective multicenter study involving patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with symptoms suggestive of acute ischemia. RESULTS: Of 10,783 patients, 5,221 (48.4%) were women. Mean age was 60.5 years for women and 56.9 for men (p < 0.001). Women had more hypertension (54.6% vs. 45.9%, p < 0.001) and diabetes (23.3% vs. 17.0%, p < 0.001) than men but fewer previous AMIs (21.1% vs. 28.9%, p < 0.001). Acute ischemia was confirmed in 1,090 women (20.8%) and 1,451 men (26.1%, p < 0.001), including AMI in 322 women (6.2%) and 572 men (10.3%, p < 0.001). Women with an AMI were in a higher Killip class than men: class I in 60.3% versus 72.2%, class II in 19.3% versus 16%, class III in 15.5% versus 8.7% and class IV in 5% versus 3.1%, respectively (p = 0.001). There was no significant difference in mortality from acute ischemia between genders (4.0% vs. 3.5%, p = 0.6), but there was a trend for higher AMI mortality in women (10.3% vs. 7.4%, p = 0.1). After controlling for age, diabetes, heart failure and presenting blood pressure, gender did not predict mortality from acute ischemia (odds ratio 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.5 to 1.4, p = 0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients presenting to the ED with acute cardiac ischemia, gender does not appear to be an independent predictor of hospital mortality. The trend for higher mortality in women from AMI can be explained by their older age, greater frequency of diabetes and higher Killip class on presentation.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Combining single patient (N-of-1) trials to estimate population treatment effects and to evaluate individual patient responses to treatment.

When treating individual patients, physicians may face difficulties using the evidence from center-based randomized control trials (RCTs) due to limitations in these studies generalizability. Therefore, they often perform their own "informal" tests of treatment effectiveness. Single patient ("N-of-1") trials provide a structured design for more rigorous assessment of medical treatments of chronic diseases, but are applied only to the index patient. We present a hierarchical Bayesian random effects model to combine N-of-1 studies to obtain an estimate of treatment effectiveness for the population and to use this population information to aid in the evaluation of an individual patient's trial results. The model's treatment effect estimates are adjustments between the population estimate and the individual's observed results. This adjustment is based upon the within-patient and between-patient heterogeneity. We demonstrate this patient-focused method using published data from 23 N-of-1 trial results comparing amitriptyline and placebo for the treatment of fibromyalgia.

Amitriptyline↗
PubMed1997

A logistic regression model when some events precede treatment: the effect of thrombolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction on the risk of cardiac arrest.

When outcomes occur in clinical trials before treatment can be given, neither intent-to-treat nor according-to-protocol analyses give optimal estimates of the treatment effect. A better approach employs a time-dependent variable for treatment. Intent-to-treat analyses are conservative, biasing against treatment; according-to-protocol analyses bias in favor of treatment. We show how to measure the effect of a time-dependent variable in a logistic regression using person-time intervals as units of measurement and describe appropriate methods for reporting model performance. The method is applied to develop a model to predict the probability that a patient with a myocardial infarction will have a sudden cardiac arrest within 48 hours of presentation to emergency medical services both when treated with thrombolysis and when not treated. We use a time-dependent treatment variable because many patients went into cardiac arrest while awaiting treatment. This technique has been programmed into an electrocardiograph for real-time use in an emergency department.

Aged↗