Biomedical subjects

H Possingham

Publications and source records attributed to H Possingham.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2001

The use and abuse of population viability analysis.

A recent study by Brook et al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al. included in their analyses. We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note that although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2001

Patch dynamics and metapopulation theory: the case of successional species.

We present a mathematical framework that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of patch succession. We draw an analogy between the epidemiological categorization of individuals (infected, susceptible, latent and resistant) and the patch structure of a spatially heterogeneous landscape (occupied-suitable, empty-suitable, occupied-unsuitable and empty-unsuitable). This approach allows one to consider life-history attributes that influence persistence in patchy environments (e.g., longevity, colonization ability) in concert with extrinsic processes (e.g., disturbances, succession) that lead to spatial heterogeneity in patch suitability. It also allows the incorporation of seed banks and other dormant life forms, thus broadening patch occupancy dynamics to include sink habitats. We use the model to investigate how equilibrium patch occupancy is influenced by four critical parameters: colonization rate, extinction rate, disturbance frequency and the rate of habitat succession. This analysis leads to general predictions about how the temporal scaling of patch succession and extinction-colonization dynamics influences long-term persistence. We apply the model to herbaceous, early-successional species that inhabit open patches created by periodic disturbances. We predict the minimum disturbance frequency required for viable management of such species in the Florida scrub ecosystem.

Disasters↗

PubMed1988

Recruitment dynamics in complex life cycles.

Organisms living in the marine rocky intertidal zone compete for space. This, together with predation, physical disruption, and differing species tolerances to physiological stress, explains the structure of the ecological communities at some sites. At other sites the supply of larvae is limiting, and events in the offshore waters, such as wind-driven upwelling, explain the composition of intertidal communities. Whether the community ecology at a site is governed by adult-adult interactions within the site, or by limitations to the supply of larvae reaching the site, is determined by the regional pattern of circulation in the coastal waters. Models combining larval circulation with adult interactions can potentially forecast population fluctuations. These findings illustrate how processes in different ecological habitats are coupled.

Animals↗