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H R Thieme

Publications and source records attributed to H R Thieme.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

On the formulation and analysis of general deterministic structured population models. II. Nonlinear theory.

This paper is as much about a certain modelling methodology, as it is about the constructive definition of future population states from a description of individual behaviour and an initial population state. The key idea is to build a nonlinear model in two steps, by explicitly introducing the environmental condition via the requirement that individuals are independent from one another (and hence equations are linear) when this condition is prescribed as a function of time. A linear physiologically structured population model is defined by two rules, one for reproduction and one for development and survival, both depending on the initial individual state and the prevailing environmental condition. In Part I we showed how one can constructively define future population state operators from these two ingredients. A nonlinear model is a linear model together with a feedback law that describes how the environmental condition at any particular time depends on the population size and composition at that time. When applied to the solution of the linear problem, the feedback law yields a fixed point problem. This we solve constructively by means of the contraction mapping principle, for any given initial population state. Using subsequently this fixed point as input in the linear population model, we obtain a population semiflow. We then say that we solved the nonlinear problem.

Animals↗

Uniform persistence and permanence for non-autonomous semiflows in population biology.

Conditions are presented for uniform strong persistence of non-autonomous semiflows, taking uniform weak persistence for granted. Turning the idea of persistence upside down, conditions are derived for non-autonomous semiflows to be point-dissipative. These results are applied to time-heterogeneous models of S-I-R-S type for the spread of infectious childhood diseases. If some of the parameter functions are asymptotically almost periodic, an almost sharp threshold result is obtained for uniform strong endemicity versus extinction in terms of asymptotic time averages. Applications are also presented to scalar retarded functional differential equations modeling one species population growth.

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Epidemic and demographic interaction in the spread of potentially fatal diseases in growing populations.

The spread of a potentially fatal infectious disease is considered in a host population that would increase exponentially in the absence of the disease. Taking into account how the effective contact rate C(N) depends on the population size N, the model demonstrates that demographic and epidemiological conclusions depend crucially on the properties of the contact function C. Conditions are given for the following scenarios to occur: (i) the disease spreads at a lower rate than the populations grows and does not modify the population growth rate: (ii) the disease initially spreads at a faster rate than the population grows and lowers the population growth rate in the long run and the following three subscenarios are possible: (iia) the population still grows exponentially, but at a slower rate; (iib) population growth is limited, but the population size does not decay; (iic) population increase is converted into population decrease.

Animals↗

A competitive exclusion principle for pathogen virulence.

For a modified Anderson and May model of host parasite dynamics it is shown that infections of different levels of virulence die out asymptotically except those that optimize the basic reproductive rate of the causative parasite. The result holds under the assumption that infection with one strain of parasite precludes additional infections with other strains. Technically, the model includes an environmental carrying capacity for the host. A threshold condition is derived which decides whether or not the parasites persist in the host population.

Animals↗

How to estimate the efficacy of periodic control of an infectious plant disease.

Certain infectious plant diseases are controlled by inspection and subsequent hand removal of diseased parts. In this paper we give two sets of criteria from which one can conclude whether this control effort is adequate or not. These criteria do not require knowledge of the infection- or detection rate of the disease but only use the structure of the contact matrix. Computer experiments give a feeling of how many inspections are needed in order to draw a conclusion.

Epidemiologic Methods↗

A model for the spatial spread of an epidemic.

We set up a deterministic model for the spatial spread of an epidemic. Essentially, the model consists of a nonlinear integral equation which has an unique solution. We show that this solution has a temporally asymptotic limit which describes the final state of the epidemic and is the minimal solution of another nonlinear integral equation. We outline the asymptotic behaviour of this minimal solution at a great distance from the epidemic's origin and generalize D. G. Kendall's pandemic threshold theorem (1957).

Disease Outbreaks↗

Recurrent outbreaks of childhood diseases revisited: the impact of isolation.

The recurrent outbreaks of measles and other childhood diseases have previously been explained by an interaction of intrinsic epidemiologic forces generating dampened oscillations and of seasonal and/or stochastic excitation. We show that isolation (i.e., sick individuals stay at home and have a reduced infective impact) can create self-sustained oscillations provided that the number of per capita contacts is largely independent of the number of individuals present. This means that the bilinear mass action term for disease incidence is modified by dividing it by the number of nonisolated individuals.

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