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Hartmut Blank

Publications and source records attributed to Hartmut Blank.

5 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: the Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics.

We present a new conceptualization of hindsight bias in terms of three separate hindsight components (foreseeability impressions, perceptions of necessity and memory distortions) and report three kinds of supporting evidence from an internet study (N = 101) of the unsuccessful application of the City of Leipzig to host the Olympic Games: (1) strongly diverging hindsight effects, (2) low intercorrelations between the components, and (3) dissociative effects of third variables on them. Specifically, experiencing the failure of the application as personally negative (due to a pro-application attitude and previous commitment), led to perceiving it as inevitable but also as unforeseeable. This surprising result helps to resolve seeming contradictions between previous findings (Louie, 1999; Mark et al., 2003; Tykocinski, 2001) by relating the opposite hindsight effects to differences in the nature and functions (dissonance reduction vs. coping with disappointment) of the foreseeability and necessity components.

Adaptation, Psychological↗
PubMed2005

Another look at retroactive and proactive interference: a quantitative analysis of conversion processes.

Traditionally, the causes of interference phenomena were sought in "real" or "hard" memory processes such as unlearning, response competition, or inhibition, which serve to reduce the accessibility of target items. I propose an alternative approach which does not deny the influence of such processes but highlights a second, equally important, source of interference-the conversion (Tulving, 1983) of accessible memory information into memory performance. Conversion is conceived as a problem-solving-like activity in which the rememberer tries to find solutions to a memory task. Conversion-based interference effects are traced to different conversion processes in the experimental and control conditions of interference designs. I present a simple theoretical model that quantitatively predicts the resulting amount of interference. In two paired-associate learning experiments using two different types of memory tests, these predictions were corroborated. Relations of the present approach to traditional accounts of interference phenomena and implications for eyewitness testimony are discussed.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

The role of horizontal categorization in retroactive and proactive interference.

Four paired-associate experiments with a total N of 291 participants investigated the effects of horizontal categorization on retroactive and proactive interference. (Exclusively) horizontal categorization means that unique categorical relationships hold across the A-B and A-C stimulus-response pairs of successive word lists (e.g., fruit--pear, river--Thames, in list 1; and fruit--plum, river--Wolga, in list 2). Experiment 1 found no significant amounts of interference with this type of list organization. However, strong interference arose with the same materials when the categorical structure was destroyed in Experiment 2. A third experiment contrasted two alternative explanations for these results, and Experiment 4 replicated the effect of horizontal categorization (vs. no categorical relationship) in a within-participants design. The results of the four experiments largely fit with a response competition explanation proposed by Bower, Thompson-Schill, and Tulving (1994), adapted to the within-participants designs used here. Overall, the present findings add to a body of evidence demonstrating limits to retroactive and proactive interference.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Hindsight bias in political elections.

Two studies on political hindsight bias were conducted on the occasions of the German parliament election in 1998 and the Nordrhein-Westfalen state parliament election in 2000. In both studies, participants predicted the percentage of votes for several political parties and recalled these predictions after the election. The observed hindsight effects were stronger than those found in any prior study on political elections (using percentage of votes as the dependent variable). We argue that the length of the retention interval between original judgement and recollection is mainly responsible for this difference. In our second study, we investigated possible artifacts in political hindsight biases using a control-group design where half of the participants recalled their predictions shortly before or after the election. Hindsight bias was preserved, reinforcing the results of earlier studies with non-control-group designs. Finally, we discuss the possibility that the hindsight experience (in political judgement and in general) actually consists of three different, partly independent components.

Adult↗