Hormuzd Katki | PubMed Health

PubMed2006

Serum concentrations of 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane (DDT) and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene (DDE) and risk of primary liver cancer.

BACKGROUND: 1,1,1-Trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane (DDT) exposure has been demonstrated to cause liver tumors in laboratory rodents. DDT's persistent metabolite and environmental degradation product, 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene (DDE), has also been associated with liver tumors in laboratory animals. Whether DDT and DDE are associated with hepatocarcinogenesis in humans is not clear. METHODS: We carried out a nested case-control study among the participants of the Nutritional Intervention Trials in Linxian, China. The case group included 168 individuals who developed liver cancer during the trials, and the control group included 385 individuals frequency-matched on age and sex who were alive and well at the end of the study. Serum concentrations of DDT and DDE were measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using multivariable analysis. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted models, the risk of developing liver cancer increased with increased serum DDT concentration (OR for quintile 1 versus quintile 5 = 3.8, 95% CI = 1.7 to 8.6, P(trend) = .0024). In contrast, there was no statistically significant association between liver cancer and serum DDE concentration. The association between high serum DDT concentration and liver cancer was stronger among individuals with DDE concentrations below the median value (odds ratio for tertile 3 versus tertile 1 = 3.55, 95% CI = 1.45 to 8.74) than those with concentrations above the median (OR = 1.70, 95% CI = 0.97 to 2.98). A calculation of crude liver cancer risk found that there would be 26 liver cancers per 100 000 persons per year in the lowest quintile of DDT exposure versus 46 liver cancers per 100 000 persons per year in the highest quintile of DDT exposure. CONCLUSIONS: DDT may be a risk factor for liver cancer, particularly among persons with lower DDE concentrations. Risk may be particularly increased among persons exposed directly to DDT (resulting in a higher ratio of DDT to DDE) or, alternatively, risk may be associated with individual ability to metabolize DDT to DDE.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Quantifying epidemiologic risk factors using non-parametric regression: model selection remains the greatest challenge.

Logistic regression is widely used to estimate relative risks (odds ratios) from case-control studies, but when the study exposure is continuous, standard parametric models may not accurately characterize the exposure-response curve. Semi-parametric generalized linear models provide a useful extension. In these models, the exposure of interest is modelled flexibly using a regression spline or a smoothing spline, while other variables are modelled using conventional methods. When coupled with a model-selection procedure based on minimizing a cross-validation score, this approach provides a non-parametric, objective, and reproducible method to characterize the exposure-response curve by one or several models with a favourable bias-variance trade-off. We applied this approach to case-control data to estimate the dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and risk of oral cancer among African Americans. We did not find a uniquely 'best' model, but results using linear, cubic, and smoothing splines were consistent: there does not appear to be a risk-free threshold for alcohol consumption vis-à-vis the development of oral cancer. This finding was not apparent using a standard step-function model. In our analysis, the cross-validation curve had a global minimum and also a local minimum. In general, the phenomenon of multiple local minima makes it more difficult to interpret the results, and may present a computational roadblock to non-parametric generalized additive models of multiple continuous exposures. Nonetheless, the semi-parametric approach appears to be a practical advance.

Black or African American↗