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Howard Burkom

Publications and source records attributed to Howard Burkom.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Issues in applied statistics for public health bioterrorism surveillance using multiple data streams: research needs.

The objective of this report is to provide a basis to inform decisions about priorities for developing statistical research initiatives in the field of public health surveillance for emerging threats. Rapid information system advances have created a vast opportunity of secondary data sources for information to enhance the situational and health status awareness of populations. While the field of medical informatics and initiatives to standardize healthcare-seeking encounter records continue accelerating, it is necessary to adapt analytic and statistical methodologies to mature in sync with sibling information science technologies. One major right-of-passage for statistical inference is to advance the optimal application of analytic methodologies for using multiple data streams in detecting and characterizing public health population events of importance. This report first describes the problem in general and the data context, then delineates more specifically the practical nature of the problem and the related issues. Approaches currently applied to data with time-series, statistical process control and traditional inference concepts are described with examples in the section on Statistics and the Role of the Analytic Surveillance Data Monitor. These are the techniques that are providing substance to surveillance professionals and enabling use of multiple data streams. The next section describes use of a more complex approach that takes temporal as well as spatial dimensions into consideration for detection and situational awareness regarding event distributions. The space-time statistic has successfully been used to detect and track public health events of interest. Important research questions which are summarized at the end of this report are described in more detail with respect to the methodological application in the respective sections. This was thought to help elucidate the research requirements as summarized later in the report. Following the description of the space-time scan statistical application; this report extends to a less traditional area of promise given what has been observed in recent application of analytic methods. Bayesian networks (BNs) represent a conceptual step with advantages of flexibility for the public health surveillance community. Progression from traditional to the more extending statistical concepts in the context of the dynamic status quo of responsibility and challenge, leads to a conclusion consisting of categorical research needs. The report is structured by design to inform judgment about how to build on practical systems to achieve better analytic outcomes for public health surveillance. There are references to research issues throughout the sections with a summarization at the end, which also includes items previously unmentioned in the report.

Algorithms↗

Algorithms for rapid outbreak detection: a research synthesis.

The threat of bioterrorism has stimulated interest in enhancing public health surveillance to detect disease outbreaks more rapidly than is currently possible. To advance research on improving the timeliness of outbreak detection, the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency sponsored the Bio-event Advanced Leading Indicator Recognition Technology (BioALIRT) project beginning in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to provide a synthesis of research on outbreak detection algorithms conducted by academic and industrial partners in the BioALIRT project. We first suggest a practical classification for outbreak detection algorithms that considers the types of information encountered in surveillance analysis. We then present a synthesis of our research according to this classification. The research conducted for this project has examined how to use spatial and other covariate information from disparate sources to improve the timeliness of outbreak detection. Our results suggest that use of spatial and other covariate information can improve outbreak detection performance. We also identified, however, methodological challenges that limited our ability to determine the benefit of using outbreak detection algorithms that operate on large volumes of data. Future research must address challenges such as forecasting expected values in high-dimensional data and generating spatial and multivariate test data sets.

Algorithms↗

A systems overview of the Electronic Surveillance System for the Early Notification of Community-Based Epidemics (ESSENCE II).

The Electronic Surveillance System for the Early Notification of Community-Based Epidemics, or ESSENCE II, uses syndromic and nontraditional health information to provide very early warning of abnormal health conditions in the National Capital Area (NCA). ESSENCE II is being developed for the Department of Defense Global Emerging Infections System and is the only known system to combine both military and civilian health care information for daily outbreak surveillance. The National Capital Area has a complicated, multijurisdictional structure that makes data sharing and integrated regional surveillance challenging. However, the strong military presence in all jurisdictions facilitates the collection of health care information across the region. ESSENCE II integrates clinical and nonclinical human behavior indicators as a means of identifying the abnormality as close to the time of onset of symptoms as possible. Clinical data sets include emergency room syndromes, private practice billing codes grouped into syndromes, and veterinary syndromes. Nonclinical data include absenteeism, nurse hotline calls, prescription medications, and over-the-counter self-medications. Correctly using information marked by varying degrees of uncertainty is one of the more challenging aspects of this program. The data (without personal identifiers) are captured in an electronic format, encrypted, archived, and processed at a secure facility. Aggregated information is then provided to users on secure Web sites. When completed, the system will provide automated capture, archiving, processing, and notification of abnormalities to epidemiologists and analysts. Outbreak detection methods currently include temporal and spatial variations of odds ratios, autoregressive modeling, cumulative summation, matched filter, and scan statistics. Integration of nonuniform data is needed to increase sensitivity and thus enable the earliest notification possible. The performance of various detection techniques was compared using results obtained from the ESSENCE II system.

Bioterrorism↗