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Biomedical subjects

I dos Santos Silva

Publications and source records attributed to I dos Santos Silva.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2005

Birthweight and other pregnancy outcomes in a cohort of women with pre-gestational insulin-treated diabetes mellitus, Scotland, 1979-95.

AIMS: To assess pregnancy outcomes, in particular birthweight, in a large population-based cohort of women in Scotland with pre-gestational insulin-treated diabetes mellitus. METHODS: Data about diabetes from the Diabetes UK cohort were linked to data on births from the Scottish Hospital In-Patient Record System. This identified 1112 eligible singleton deliveries during 1979-95 to 706 insulin-treated women. RESULTS: One thousand and eighty-four (97.5%) deliveries resulted in a live-born infant and 28 (2.5%) in a stillbirth. There were 13 (1.2%) neonatal deaths. The mean birthweight of the live-born infants was 3421 g, 1.06 standard deviations greater than that of infants in the Scottish general population after correcting for sex and gestational age. Forty-three per cent of live-born babies in the study were large (> Scottish 90th percentile) and 4% small (< 10th percentile) for their sex and gestational age. Macrosomia, defined as birthweight > or = 4000 g, occurred in 23% live-born babies and its prevalence was significantly inversely related to duration of maternal diabetes. However, the mean birthweight of infants born to mothers with diabetes for 20 or more years was still 0.90 standard deviations greater than in the general population. Prevalence of macrosomia increased with increasing number of previous pregnancies, but was not associated with maternal height or smoking habits. Stillbirth and neonatal death rates were, respectively, 4.7 (95% confidence interval = 3.3, 6.8) and 2.4 (1.4, 4.1), times higher than those in the general population. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with pre-existing insulin-treated diabetes was much higher than in the Scottish general population, and changed little during the study period. A detailed quantification of the independent effect of duration of mother's diabetes on birthweight revealed a continuous inverse correlation between these two variables.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Is the association of birth weight with premenopausal breast cancer risk mediated through childhood growth?

Several studies have found positive associations between birth weight and breast cancer risk at premenopausal ages. The mechanisms underlying this association are not known, but it is possible that it may be mediated through childhood growth. We examined data from a British cohort of 2176 women born in 1946 and for whom there were prospective measurements of birth weight and of body size throughout life. In all, 59 breast cancer cases occurred during follow-up, 21 of whom were known to be premenopausal. Women who weighed at least 4 kg at birth were five times (relative risk (RR)=5.03; 95% confidence interval=1.13, 22.5) more likely to develop premenopausal breast cancer than those who weighed less than 3 kg (P-value for linear trend=0.03). This corresponded to an RR of 2.31 (0.95, 5.64) per 1 kg increase in birth weight. Birth weight was also a predictor of postnatal growth, that is, women who were heavy at birth remained taller and heavier throughout their childhood and young adulthood. However, the effect of birth weight on premenopausal breast cancer risk was only reduced slightly after simultaneous adjustment for height and body mass index (BMI) at age 2 years and height and BMI velocities throughout childhood and adolescence (adjusted RR=1.94 (0.74, 5.14) per 1 kg increase in birth weight). The pathways through which birth weight is associated with premenopausal breast cancer risk seem to be largely independent of those underlying the relation of postnatal growth to risk.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Childhood growth and breast cancer.

Adult height is known to be positively associated with breast cancer risk. The mechanism underlying this association is complex, since adult height is positively correlated with age at menarche, which in turn is negatively associated with breast cancer risk. The authors used prospective data from a British cohort of 2,547 girls followed from birth in 1946 to the end of 1999 to examine breast cancer risk in relation to childhood growth. As expected, adult height was positively associated with age at menarche and breast cancer. In childhood, cases were taller and leaner, on average, than noncases. Significant predictors of breast cancer risk in models containing all components of growth were height velocity at age 4-7 years (for a one-standard-deviation increase, odds ratio (OR) = 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13, 2.09) and age 11-15 years (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 0.97, 1.71) and body mass index velocity (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)/year) at age 2-4 years (OR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.48, 0.83). The effects of these variables were particularly marked in women with early menarche (age <12.5 years). These findings suggest that women who grow faster in childhood and reach an adult height above the average for their menarche category are at particularly increased risk of breast cancer.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Heterogeneity of breast cancer risk within the South Asian female population in England: a population-based case-control study of first-generation migrants.

South Asian women in England have a lower breast cancer risk than their English-native counterparts, but less is known about variations in risk between distinct South Asian ethnic subgroups. We used the data from a population-based case-control study of first-generation South Asian migrants to assess risks by ethnic subgroup. In all, 240 breast cancer cases, identified through cancer registries, were individually matched on age and general practitioner to two controls. Information on the region of origin, religious and linguistic background, and on breast cancer risk factors was obtained from participants. Breast cancer odds varied significantly between the ethnic subgroups (P=0.008), with risk increasing in the following order: Bangladeshi Muslims (odds ratio (OR) 0.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.10, 1.06), Punjabi Hindu (OR 0.59, 95% CI: 0.33, 1.27), Gujarati Hindu (1=reference group), Punjabi Sikh (OR 1.23, 95% CI: 0.72, 2.11) and Pakistani/Indian Muslims (OR 1.76, 95% CI: 1.10, 2.81). The statistically significant raised risk in Pakistani/Indian Muslims increased with adjustment for socioeconomic and reproductive risk factors (OR 2.12, 95% CI: 1.25, 3.58), but was attenuated, and no longer significant, with further adjustment for waist circumference and intake of nonstarch polysaccharides and fat (OR 1.49, 95% CI: 0.85, 2.63). These findings reveal differences in breast cancer risk between South Asian ethnic subgroups, which were not fully explained by reproductive differences, but were partly accounted for by diet and body size.

Asia, Southeastern↗
PubMed2004

The relationship between the epidermal growth factor (EGF) 5'UTR variant A61G and melanoma/nevus susceptibility.

The inheritance of a G allele in position 61 in the 5'UTR of the epidermal growth factor (EGF) gene has been reported to increase melanoma susceptibility, a finding we have investigated in this study. The most potent phenotypic risk factor for melanoma is the atypical mole syndrome (AMS) phenotype. Our hypothesis is that the AMS is genetically determined and that nevus genes are also low penetrance melanoma susceptibility genes. We report that the G allele frequencies were the same in 697 healthy women and 380 melanoma cases (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.8-1.2 p=0.76). We therefore found no evidence that this polymorphism is a melanoma susceptibility gene. Furthermore, we found no evidence that the polymorphism controls the nevus phenotype (nevus number, number atypical nevi or AMS phenotype). We did find some evidence that the G allele may be associated with decreased tumor Breslow thickness (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.9) for the A/A genotype versus A/G and G/G combined in tumors of thickness >3.5 vs < or =3.5 mm and may therefore act as a predictor of survival, although this finding is not in accord with the original report. This is the second study to find no association between EGF +61 and melanoma susceptibility.

5' Untranslated Regions↗
PubMed2003

Life-course body size and perimenopausal mammographic parenchymal patterns in the MRC 1946 British birth cohort.

Dense mammographic parenchymal patterns are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. Certain features of body size have been found to be associated with breast cancer risk, but less is known about their relation to breast density. We investigated the association of birth size, childhood growth and life-course changes in body size with Wolfe grade in 1298 perimenopausal women from a British cohort of women born in 1946. The cohort benefits from repeated measures of body size in childhood and adulthood. We obtained mammograms for 90% of women who at age 53 years reported having previously had a mammogram. We found no associations with birth weight or maximum attained height. Body mass index (BMI) at age 53 years and breast size were independently and inversely associated with Wolfe grade (P-value for trend <0.001 for both). Women who reached puberty later were at a greater odds of a higher Wolfe grade than women who had an earlier puberty (odds ratio associated with a 1 year delay in menarche 1.14, 95% CI: 1.01-1.27, adjusted for BMI and breast size at mammography). A higher BMI at any age during childhood or adult life was associated with a reduction in the odds of a higher Wolfe grade, after controlling for breast size and BMI at mammography, for example, standardised odds ratio for height at age 7 was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.81). These findings reveal the importance of taking life-course changes in body size, and not just contemporaneous measures, into account when using mammographic density as an intermediate marker for risk of breast cancer.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Survival from breast cancer among South Asian and non-South Asian women resident in South East England.

Ethnic differences in breast cancer survival have been observed in the USA but have not been examined in Britain. We aimed to investigate such differences between South Asian (i.e. those with family roots in the Indian subcontinent) and non-South Asian (essentially British-native) women in England. Primary breast cancer cases incident in 1986 -1993 and resident in South East England were ascertained through the Thames Cancer and Registry and followed up to the end of 1997. Cases of South Asian ethnicity were identified on the basis of their names by using a previously validated computer algorithm. A total of 1037 South Asian and 50 201 non-South Asian breast cancer cases were included in the analysis; 30% of the South Asian (n=312) and 44% (n=22 201) of the non-South Asian cases died during follow-up. South Asian cases had a higher relative survival than non-South Asians throughout the follow-up period. The 10-year relative survival rates were 72.6% (95% confidence interval: 69.0, 75.9%) and 65.2% (64.5, 65.8%) for South Asians and non-South Asians, respectively. The excess mortality rates experienced by South Asians were 82% (72, 94%) of those experienced by non-South Asians (P=0.004). The magnitude of this effect was slightly reduced with adjustment for differences in age at diagnosis, but was strengthened with further adjustment for differences in stage at presentation and socioeconomic deprivation (excess mortality rates in South Asians relative to non-South Asians=72% (63, 82%), P&<0.001). These findings indicate that the higher survival from breast cancer in the first 10 years after diagnosis among South Asian was not due to differences in age at diagnosis, socioeconomic deprivation or disease stage at presentation.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Fetal growth and subsequent risk of breast cancer: results from long term follow up of Swedish cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether size at birth and rate of fetal growth influence the risk of breast cancer in adulthood. DESIGN: Cohort identified from detailed birth records, with 97% follow up. SETTING: Uppsala Academic Hospital, Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: 5358 singleton females born during 1915-29, alive and traced to the 1960 census. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of breast cancer before (at age <50 years) and after (> or = 50 years) the menopause. RESULTS: Size at birth was positively associated with rates of breast cancer in premenopausal women. In women who weighed > or =4000 g at birth rates of breast cancer were 3.5 times (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 9.3) those in women of similar gestational age who weighed <3000 g at birth. Rates in women in the top fifths of the distributions of birth length and head circumference were 3.4 (1.5 to 7.9) and 4.0 (1.6 to 10.0) times those in the lowest fifths (adjusted for gestational age). The effect of birth weight disappeared after adjustment for birth length or head circumference, whereas the effects of birth length and head circumference remained significant after adjustment for birth weight. For a given size at birth, gestational age was inversely associated with risk (P=0.03 for linear trend). Adjustment for markers of adult risk factors did not affect these findings. Birth size was not associated with rates of breast cancer in postmenopausal women. CONCLUSIONS: Size at birth, particularly length and head circumference, is associated with risk of breast cancer in women aged <50 years. Fetal growth rate, as measured by birth size adjusted for gestational age, rather than size at birth may be the aetiologically relevant factor in premenopausal breast cancer.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

Development and validation of a computerized South Asian Names and Group Recognition Algorithm (SANGRA) for use in British health-related studies.

BACKGROUND: Studies on ethnic variations in health have played an important role in aetiological and health services research. Most routine datasets, however, do not include information on ethnicity. South Asians, one of the largest minority ethnic groups in Britain, have distinctive names that also allow differentiation of the main sub-groups with their important differences in health-related exposures and disease risks. METHODS: A computerized name recognition algorithm (SANGRA) was developed incorporating directories of South Asian first names and surnames together with their religious and linguistic origin. SANGRA was validated using health-related data with self-ascribed information on ethnicity. RESULTS: SANGRA was successful in recognizing South Asian origin in reference datasets, with sensitivity of 89-96 per cent, specificity of 94-98 per cent, positive predictive value (PPV) of 80-89 per cent and negative predictive value (NPV) of 98-99 per cent. Religious origin was correctly assigned in the majority of cases: sensitivity, specificity and PPV were 94 per cent, 91 per cent and 90 per cent for Hindus; 90 per cent, 99 per cent and 98 per cent for Muslims; and 76 per cent, 99 per cent and 94 per cent for Sikhs. SANGRA correctly identified 76 per cent Gujerati and 70 per cent Punjabi names, although only 62 per cent of Gujerati names were sufficiently distinct to be allocated to the Gujerati-only category and only 53 per cent Punjabi names were allocated to the Punjabi-only category. However, specificity and PPV were high for both languages (respectively 97 per cent and 93 per cent for Gujerati, and 99 per cent and 97 per cent for Punjabi). CONCLUSIONS: SANGRA provides a practical and valid method of ascertaining South Asian origin by name and, to a lesser degree of accuracy, of differentiating between the main religious and linguistic subgroups living in Britain. This algorithm will be useful in health-related studies where information on self-ascribed ethnicity is not available or is of a limited nature.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2001

Urinary estrogen metabolites and mammographic parenchymal patterns in postmenopausal women.

It has been hypothesized that women who metabolize their endogenous estrogens predominantly via 16(alpha)-hydroxylation rather than via 2-hydroxylation and, as a result, have a low ratio of 2-hydroxyestrone (2-OHE1):16(alpha)-hydroxyestrone (16(alpha)-OHE1) are at an increased risk of breast cancer. Epidemiological evidence in support of this hypothesis is scarce and mostly based on measurements made after the onset of the disease. To gain insight into the role of these metabolites in the etiology of breast cancer, we assessed their relationship with high-density Wolfe mammographic parenchymal patterns (P2/DY), a recognized indicator of risk of this tumor. The study was nested within a large cross-sectional survey on determinants of mammographic patterns carried out in a population-based breast screening program in Northern Greece. Urinary levels of 2-OHE1 and 16(alpha)-OHE1 were measured in a random sample of 70 postmenopausal women with P2/DY mammographic patterns and in a random sample of 70 women with N1 mammographic patterns, individually matched to the P2/DY women on year of birth, years since menopause and date of urine collection. Women with a P2/DY pattern had, on average, 58% higher levels of 2-OHE1 (P = 0.002) and 15% higher levels of 16(alpha)-OHE1 (P = 0.37) than those with an N1 pattern. The ratio of 2-OHE1:16(alpha)-OHE1 was 35% higher (P = 0.005) in women with a P2/DY pattern. Women in the highest one-third of this ratio were six times more likely to have a P2/DY pattern than those in the lowest one-third after adjusting for potential confounders (prevalence odds ratio, 6.2; 95% CI, 1.7-22.9; test for linear trend, P = 0.002). These findings seem to suggest that a high, rather than a low, 2-OHE1:16(alpha)-OHE1 ratio may be associated with an increase in breast cancer risk at postmenopausal ages, unless the pathway through which estrogen metabolites may affect breast cancer risk is unrelated to mammographic parenchymal patterns.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

Incidence of testicular germ-cell malignancies in England and Wales: trends in children compared with adults.

The incidence of testicular cancer has been increasing markedly in most industrialised countries. This rise is known to have affected young adults, but it is less clear whether it has affected other age groups, particularly children. We used data from the National Cancer Registry file at the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and the National Registry of Childhood Tumours to examine trends in testicular germ-cell malignancies overall in England and Wales from 1962 to 1990 and in children from 1962 to 1995. The incidence of testicular cancer at all ages rose by 3.4% (95% CI 3.3-3.6%) per annum from 1962 to 1990. A similar rise in the incidence of germ-cell malignancies occurred during the years for which histological information was available in the ONS files, 1971-1989 (3.4%; 3.1-3.6%), to which both seminomas and non-seminomas contributed equally. The incidence of non-seminomas in adults rose in men under age 55 years and declined in older men, whereas there were increases in the incidence of seminomas in both young and older men. Cohort analysis at young ages showed a marked rise in the risk of germ-cell malignancies up to the cohort born in 1955-1959 but no further rise for those born subsequently. The rise in the incidence of these tumours in young adults was paralleled by a similar trend, although less marked, in children aged under 15 years (1.3% per annum; 0.2-2.5%). The increase in risk for children in this very large data set alongside the rise in young adults is compatible with the hypothesis that childhood and adult testicular germ-cell malignancies may have some common risk factors, presumably pre-natal.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

Mortality in the Portuguese thorotrast study.

The Portuguese Thorotrast study cohort consists of a group of patients who received Thorotrast for diagnostic reasons between 1929 and 1956, and a group of similar patients who were given nonradioactive contrast agents. The cohort members were identified from medical records that contained information on reasons for the radiological investigation, type of procedure employed, and name and dose of the contrast medium used. This cohort was assembled in 1961, but its follow-up was interrupted in 1976. We have now reactivated this cohort and extended its follow-up through the end of 1996. Similar methods were used to follow up and ascertain cause of death for the Thorotrast-exposed and unexposed subjects. A total of 1931 patients who received Thorotrast systemically and 2258 unexposed subjects were initially identified from medical records. We were able to successfully follow up 58.6% (1131) of the Thorotrast patients and 45.7% (1032) of the unexposed patients. By the end of 1996, 92.2% of the Thorotrast patients and 75.2% of the unexposed patients were dead. Mortality from all causes was increased in the Thorotrast patients compared to those who were not exposed. This excess in mortality increased with time since exposure, peaking 30 years after administration of Thorotrast. The rise in overall mortality was essentially due to neoplasms [relative risk (RR) adjusted for sex, age and period = 6.04, 95% CI = 4.42-8.26], nonmalignant liver disorders (RR = 5.67, 95% CI 3.13-10.3) and nonmalignant hematological conditions (RR = 14.2, 95% CI = 2.54-79.3). The increase in mortality from neoplasms was explained mainly by increases in the risk of liver cancer (RR = 70.8, 95% CI = 19.9-251.3) and, to a much lesser extent, leukemia (RR = 15.2, 95% CI = 1. 28-181.7).

Adolescent↗
PubMed1998

Trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Scotland: description and possible explanations.

Secular and cohort trends in mortality from cancer in Scotland during 1953-93, and incidence during 1960-90, were analysed using individual records from the national mortality and registration files. For certain cancer sites, the secular analyses of mortality were extended back to 1911 by use of published data. Mortality from cancer at older ages in Scotland has increased over the last 40 years. In each sex, this trend has been dominated by the effects of smoking: all-cancer rates and rates of lung cancer, now the most common fatal cancer in men and in women in Scotland, reached a peak in the cohort of men born at the turn of the century and the cohort of women born in the 1920s. For much of the period, the Scottish all-age rates of lung cancer were the highest reported in the world; they are now decreasing on a secular basis in men, but are still increasing in women. There have also been large increases at older ages in the incidence and mortality rates for cancer of the prostate in recent years. bladder cancer, nervous system cancer, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, myeloma and leukaemia; for each there is likely to be a considerable artefactual element to the increase, with differing degrees of possibility that there may in addition be an element of real increase. Substantial decreases in mortality at all ages have occurred for stomach and colorectal cancers and substantial increases at all ages for pleural cancer and melanoma. Rates of mortality from breast cancer, the most common cancer in women in Scotland, have generally increased over the past 80 years; a temporary cessation in this upward trend occurred in the years during and after the Second World War, and recently rates have turned downward, probably at least in part because of better treatment. Mortality from ovarian cancer, the second most common reproductive-related female tumour in Scotland, has also increased at older ages. At younger ages, mortality from cancer in Scotland has decreased, especially in men, whereas incidence has not. This divergence, which has been a consequence of better treatment, has occurred especially for cancers of the testis and ovary, Hodgkin's disease and leukaemia. There have been increases at young adult ages, however, in both mortality from and incidence of oral and pharyngeal, oesophageal and laryngeal cancers in men, and melanoma and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in each sex. Cervical cancer rates at young ages also increased, but this trend has reversed for incidence in the most recent birth cohorts. Incidence rates have also increased for testicular cancer in young adults and leukaemia in children. With the possible exceptions of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and childhood leukaemia, the increasing rates are likely largely to reflect real rises in incidence, and they highlight the need for investigation of the causes of these cancers, and, when causes are known, for preventive action.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1997

Socioeconomic differences in reproductive behaviour.

There are marked socioeconomic variations in the risk of female reproductive cancers. We examine here data from the World Fertility Surveys, the Demographic and Health Surveys, and other national surveys, to assess whether these variations in cancer risk might be explained, at least in part, by socioeconomic variations in reproductive behaviour. There were marked socioeconomic differentials in achieved parity, age at first birth, final childlessness, duration of breastfeeding, and possibly also age at menopause. These differentials were present in almost all settings: countries with low and high levels of modernization, and countries with low and high levels of fertility. In general, women of higher socioeconomic status and with more education had lower fertility and later age at first birth, but a greater prevalence of childlessness, shorter duration of breastfeeding and later age at menopause. However, the size and even the direction of these differentials varied markedly from country to country according to its level of economic development and, within each country, from generation to generation of women. It is possible that some of these socioeconomic differences may be narrowing in recent generations in Western countries. There was little evidence of socioeconomic variations in age at menarche. The observed socioeconomic differentials in most aspects of reproductive behaviour could potentially account for some of the socioeconomic variation in the risk of female reproductive cancers. However, this relationship could not be assessed directly because such analysis would require birth-cohort-specific data on socioeconomic variations in reproductive behaviour and in cancer risks. Unfortunately, these data are not available.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Sex differences in time trends of colorectal cancer in England and Wales: the possible effect of female hormonal factors.

Differences between the sexes in time trends of colorectal cancer incidence 1962-87 and mortality 1960-91 in England and Wales are examined in relation to changes in female hormonal factors. There was a trend in the sex ratio of this tumour, particularly marked for the descending colon, whereby the female excess in risk at young ages has almost disappeared but the male excess at older ages has increased. This trend started for cohorts born since the 1920s and coincided with the increase in the use of oral contraceptives and, to a lesser extent, with increases in fertility. The decline has been particularly pronounced for women at young ages born since 1935-39, coinciding with the spread of oral contraceptive use to younger age groups. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that female hormonal factors may play a role in the aetiology of colorectal cancer and with the possibility that oral contraceptive use might exert a protective effect in the descending colon.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1995

Is the apparent rise in cancer mortality in the elderly real? Analysis of changes in certification and coding of cause of death in England and Wales, 1970-1990.

The effect of changes in recording and coding of cause of death on trends in cancer mortality in England and Wales in persons aged 45 and over during 1970-1990 is reviewed. During this period, all-cancer mortality rates increased only at ages over 75 in males and over 55 in females. Rises in cancer mortality were largely due to increases in cancer of lung, prostate and unspecified site in men, and of lung, breast and unspecified site in women. Death coding and certification artefacts were much larger in older persons. In those aged 75-84, a change in the position of recording cancer on the death certificate could potentially account for 46% of the recorded increase in prostate-cancer mortality and 28% of the increase in breast-cancer mortality. The decrease in recorded mortality from ill-defined terminal events was far greater than the increase in cancer mortality in this age group. The rise in all-cancer mortality in the elderly was partly due to an increase in lung-cancer mortality, and data artefacts explained a large proportion of the increase in the other common specified cancers in those aged 75-84. The use of routine mortality statistics to chart progress against cancer lacks validity at older ages because of imprecision in certification of cause of death.

Aged↗
PubMed1995

Recent trends in incidence of and mortality from breast, ovarian and endometrial cancers in England and Wales and their relation to changing fertility and oral contraceptive use.

Reproductive-related factors play a major role in the aetiology of cancers of the breast, ovary and endometrium. Pregnancy history influences the risk of each of these cancers, and oral contraceptive use modifies the risks of ovarian and endometrial cancers, although its effect on breast cancer risk is less certain. We analysed recent time trends in the incidence and mortality of these cancers in England and Wales and assessed whether they can be explained by changes in fertility and oral contraceptive use. During 1962-87, there were significant increases in the overall incidence of breast cancer (0.95% increase per annum) and ovarian cancer (0.76% per annum) but little increase in endometrial cancer (0.13% per annum). At young ages incidence of each of the cancers has declined in recent years, whereas at older ages there have been substantial increases. Mortality data show similar time trends. In analyses by birth cohort, incidence of each of the cancers increased steeply for successive cohorts born before the turn of the century, and more slowly for cohorts thereafter, reaching a maximum for those born in the 1920s, and decreased for those born subsequently. The increases in incidence for women born before the turn of the century paralleled marked declines in their fertility. The fall in risk for women born after the 1920s was not accompanied by significant increases in their fertility, but coincided with the introduction and increase in use of oral contraceptives. For ovarian and endometrial cancers this accords with strong evidence from person-based studies of the protective effect of oral contraceptives. For breast cancer, the reasons for the recent decline are not clear. It would accord with recent suggestions of a long-term protective effect of oral contraceptives, on which further studies are needed. It is also possible, however, that changes in other risk factors such as dietary fat intake and menarcheal age might have contributed to the recent declines in the risk of these cancers.

Adolescent↗