Re: "Time-to-event analysis of longitudinal follow-up of a survey: choice of the time-scale".
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to J J Feldman.
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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate risk of late life coronary heart disease associated with being overweight in late middle or old age and to assess whether weight change modifies this risk. DESIGN: Longitudinal study of subjects in the epidemiological follow up study of the national health and nutrition examination survey I. SETTING: United States. SUBJECTS: 621 men and 960 women free of coronary heart disease in 1982-84 (mean age 77 years). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Body mass index of 27 or more in late middle age was associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease in late life (relative risk = 1.7 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.1)) while body mass index of 27 or more in old age was not (1.1 (0.8 to 1.5)). This difference in risk was due largely to weight loss between middle and old age. Exclusion of those with weight loss of 10% or more increased risk associated with heavier weight in old age (1.4 (1.0 to 1.9)). Thinner older people who lost weight and heavier people who had gained weight showed increased risk of coronary heart disease compared with thinner people with stable weight. CONCLUSIONS: Heavier weight in late middle age was a risk factor for coronary heart disease in late life. Heavier weight in old age was associated with an increased risk once those with substantial weight loss were excluded. The contribution of weight to risk of coronary heart disease in older people may be underestimated if weight history is neglected.
Little is known about the relation of overweight to risk of coronary heart disease in older women. In this paper, the authors used measured weight for 1,259 white women aged 65-74 years from the Epidemiologic Follow-up Study of the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to examine the effect of overweight on coronary heart disease incidence (mean length of follow-up, 14 years). They also used reported lifetime maximum weight to examine the effect of weight loss on this association. Women with a Quetelet index (weight (kg)/height (m)2) of 29 or more showed an increased risk of coronary heart disease (relative risk (RR) = 1.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1) after adjustment for age and smoking in comparison with those with a Quetelet index of less than 21, while women with a Quetelet index of 23-24 had a lower risk of coronary heart disease (RR = 0.6, 95% CI 0.4-0.9). However, the pattern of risk associated with measured weight was modified by weight loss. Among heavier women whose weight was relatively stable, those with a Quetelet index of 29 or more had an increased risk of heart disease (RR = 2.7, 95% CI 1.7-4.4). Among those with greater weight loss, the relation between Quetelet index and risk of coronary heart disease was J-shaped. Overweight is an independent risk factor for coronary heart disease in older women, a finding strengthened after previous weight loss is accounted for. Reasons for the unexpected increase in risk of coronary heart disease in thinner women who lost weight are unclear, and further investigation is warranted.
United States national data were used to assess factors responsible for the increase of brain tumor mortality. Between 1968 and 1988, death rates increased 50% among those aged 65-74 years, 200% among those aged 75-84 years, and 800% in the oldest old. Rate of increase and maximum death rate have changed over time. Death rate among the population aged 65-74 years peaked in the mid-1980s, while among those aged 85 years and older it is projected to continue increasing throughout the 1990s. The patterns of rate increases were almost identical in the two sexes, as well as among whites and nonwhites. There was a strong correlation over time of death rates with head diagnostic procedures (r = 0.96) and with the pace of computerized axial tomography installation (r = 0.91). The authors conclude that the reported increase in brain tumor mortality is not genuine, but represents a combination of three factors: availability of more sophisticated, noninvasive diagnostic technology; change in the attitude toward care of the elderly; and introduction of support programs such as Medicare that facilitate diagnostic procedures in the elderly.
OBJECTIVE: To identify US counties (1) that had either significantly high or significantly low firearm homicide rates among black males 15 through 19 years of age in 1983 through 1985 and in 1987 through 1989, and/or (2) that experienced a significant increase in the firearm homicide rate between 1983 through 1985 and 1987 through 1989. DESIGN: Using the Compressed Mortality File, a county-level mortality and population database maintained by the National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control, Hyattsville, Md, county-level firearm homicide rates are analyzed. SETTING: Eighty counties with a population of at least 10,000 black males 15 through 19 years of age in 1987 through 1989. SUBJECTS: Black males 15 through 19 years of age whose underlying cause of death was classified as firearm homicide (E965.0 through E965.4, or E970) in the ICD-9 (International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries, and Causes of Death, Ninth Revision). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: County-specific firearm homicide rate. RESULTS: In 1983 through 1985 and in 1987 through 1989, seven and 13 counties, respectively, were identified that had significantly high firearm homicide rates. Firearm homicide rates were significantly high in both time periods in the following counties: Los Angeles, California; Wayne, Michigan; Kings, New York; St Louis City, Missouri; and Baltimore City, Maryland. Firearm homicide rates increased significantly between 1983 through 1985 and 1987 through 1989 in 34 of the 80 counties. Twenty counties had significantly low rates in both time periods. Several counties with low rates in 1983 through 1985 experienced significant increases and by 1987 through 1989 were among those with high rates. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance of firearm homicide rates at the county levels in counties with high and with low rates is a necessary first step in the development of successful violence prevention programs. Those counties where rates are high and increasing are the counties that are in greatest need for intervention strategies. Knowledge of the incidence of nonfatal firearm injuries is also needed.
OBJECTIVE: To examine trends (1979 through 1989) and current status in firearm and nonfirearm homicide rates by level of urbanization among persons 15 through 19 years of age. DESIGN: The Compressed Mortality File, a county-level mortality and population database maintained by the National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control, Hyattsville, Md, and the 1980 Human Resource Profile County Codes are used to analyze age-, sex-, and race-specific firearm and nonfirearm homicide rates by urbanization level. SETTING: United States, 1979 through 1989. SUBJECTS: Black and white males and females 15 through 19 years of age whose underlying cause of death was either firearm homicide (E965.0 through E965.4 or E970) or nonfirearm homicide (E960 through E964, E965.5 through E969, or E971 through E978) in the ICD-9 (International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries, and Causes of Death, Ninth Revision). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Urbanization level-specific firearm and nonfirearm homicide rates. RESULTS: The 1989 firearm homicide rate in metropolitan counties was nearly five times the rate in nonmetropolitan counties (13.7 vs 2.9 deaths per 100,000 population). Firearm homicide rates were highest in core metropolitan counties, 27.7 per 100,000 population; rates were higher for black males than for any other race-sex group in each of five county urbanization strata for 1979 through 1989. Nonfirearm homicide rates are considerably lower, with smaller urban differentials; the rate in metropolitan counties was 1.4 times the rate in nonmetropolitan counties (2.6 vs 1.8 per 100,000 population). From 1979 through 1984, firearm homicide rates declined in each of the county strata. From 1984 through 1987, firearm homicide rates increased, and from 1987 through 1989 they increased rapidly, from 23% to 35% per year in the four metropolitan strata. From 1979 through 1989, nonfirearm homicide rates declined or remained stable. CONCLUSIONS: Large urbanization differentials in firearm homicide and smaller differentials in nonfirearm homicide are identified. Firearm homicide rates are highest and increasing the fastest among black teenage males in the core, fringe, and medium metropolitan strata.
The relationship of low serum cholesterol and mortality was examined in data from the NHANES I Epidemiologic Followup Study (NHEFS) for 10,295 persons aged 35-74, 5833 women with 1281 deaths and 4462 men with 1748 deaths (mean (followup = 14.1 years). Serum cholesterol below 4.1 mmol/l was associated with increased risk of death in comparison with serum cholesterol of 4.1-5.1 mmol/l (relative risk (RR) for women = 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) = (1.2, 2.3); for men RR = 1.4, CI = (1.1, 1.7)). However, the low serum cholesterol-mortality relationship was modified by time, age, and among older persons, activity level. The low serum cholesterol-mortality association was strongest in the first 10 years of followup. Moreover, this relationship occurred primarily among older persons (RR for low serum cholesterol for women 35-59 = 1.0 (0.6, 1.8), for women 70-74, RR = 2.1 (1.2, 3.7); RR for low serum cholesterol for men 35-59 = 1.2 (0.8, 2.0), for men 70-74, RR = 1.9 (1.3, 2.7)). Among older persons, however, the low serum cholesterol-mortality association was confined only to those with low activity at baseline. Factors related to underlying health status, rather than a mortality-enhancing effect of low cholesterol, likely accounts for the excess risk of death among persons with low cholesterol. The observed low cholesterol-mortality association therefore should not discourage public health programs directed at lowering serum cholesterol.
This report describes the plan and operation for the 1987 data collection wave of the Epidemiologic Followup to the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I). Tracing and data collection were conducted on 11,750 persons 25-74 years of age at NHANES I who were not known to be deceased in the 1982-84 and 1986 data collection waves of the NHANES I Epidemiologic Followup Study.
This method represents a nontraditional approach to platysma tightening in which the muscle is moved primarily in an anterior direction. A long infolded, multilayered midline seam approximates the two platysma halves into a single sheet of shaped muscle across the entire front of the neck. Vertical submandibular muscle pleats and sling sutures further refine neck contour. No muscle is resected or transected. Subplatysmal lipectomy can be done without the risk of central neck depression or laryngeal skeletonization. A bulging submandibular salivary gland can often be corrected.
This report describes a method for standardizing definitions of episodes of nursing home care in the 1985 National Nursing Home Survey. The method shows how the information on nursing home admissions and discharges collected on the Current and Discharged Resident Questionnaires can be used to redefine the endpoints of nursing home stays. The report also explains how errors caused by missing and inconsistent nursing home admission and discharge data were resolved.
Ptosis of the chin pad is common and can be seen in patients of all ages. It may be associated with too little or (at times) too much anterior chin projection. Often there is an associated deep submental skin crease present. Frequently, the primary concern of the patient is the appearance or exaggeration of chin ptosis in smiling ("dynamic" ptosis). This report describes a flexible approach to the correction of developmental (and some iatrogenic) ptotic chin deformities. The key element in the approach is the direct excision of sagging or excess chin fat, muscle, and skin. No attempt is made to reposition or lift ptosis-prone soft tissues. If a deep submental skin crease is present, it too is excised. If the chin needs added anterior projection, it is accomplished with a stable alloplastic chin implant. The approach is uniquely suited to correct anterior overprojection caused by an excess of soft tissue at the front of the chin and has been successful in correcting the "dynamic" ptosis that appears with smiling.
To determine whether associations of elevated resting pulse rate with CHD incidence or death in white men are independent of other risk factors and whether such associations exist for women and blacks, data were examined from the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. Over a follow-up period of 6 to 13 years, elevated RR for CHD incidence were found for older white men with baseline pulse greater than 84 beats/min compared with less than 74 beats/min after controlling multiple risk factors (RR = 1.37, 95% CL 1.02, 1.84). Risks of death from all causes, cardiovascular diseases, and noncardiovascular diseases were also elevated for white men with elevated pulse rate independent of other risk factors. CHD incidence was increased in white women with elevated pulse rate. Risks of death from all causes, cardiovascular diseases, and noncardiovascular diseases, were also elevated for white men with elevated pulse rate independent of other risk factors. CHD incidence was increased in white women with elevated pulse rate. Risk of death from all causes and cardiovascular diseases was elevated in black men and women with elevated pulse rate. Risk of death from noncardiovascular disease was elevated in black men with elevated pulse rate. The association with cardiovascular death was particularly striking in black women, even after adjusting for baseline risk factors (RR 3.03, 95% CL 1.46, 6.28). Further studies are needed to assess associations of pulse rate with CHD in blacks and to elucidate mechanisms in all groups.
The authors studied distributions of body weight for height, change in body weight with age, and the relationship between body mass index and mortality among participants in the Epidemiologic Follow-up Study of the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHEFS) (n = 14,407), a cohort study based on an representative sample of the U.S. population. Percentiles of body weight for height according to age and sex are presented. Cross-sectional analyses of body weight suggest that mean body weight increases with age until late middle age, then plateaus and decreases for older aged persons. However, longitudinal analysis of change in weight with age shows that younger persons in the lower quintile at baseline tend to gain more than those in the higher quintile. Older persons in the higher quintile at baseline have the greatest average loss in weight. The relationship of body mass index to mortality is a U-shaped curve, with increased risks in the lowest and highest 15% of the distribution. Increased risk of mortality associated with the highest 15th percentile of the body mass index distribution, as well as the highest 15% of the joint distribution of body mass index and skinfold thickness, is statistically significant for white women. However, the risk diminishes when adjusted for the presence of disease and factors related to disease. More noteworthy is the fact that there is a statistically significant excess risk of mortality for both race and sex groups in the lowest 15% of the body mass index distribution after adjusting for smoking history, and presence of disease. Those in the lowest 15% of the joint body mass index and skinfold thickness distribution, were also at increased risk. Risk of mortality for both men and women who have lost 10% or more of their maximum lifetime weight within the last 10 years is statistically significant, even when controlling for current weight. This study has replicated previously reported relationships, while correcting for several methodological issues.
We present a case example that illustrates the diagnostic and treatment difficulties engendered by adult psychiatric patients with primary behavioral problems and neurocognitive disorders. In the case cited, the neuropsychological evaluation plays a significant role in reconceptualizing a patient who had accrued multiple psychiatric diagnoses including schizophrenia, borderline personality, and impulse control disorder. Formal examination revealed deficits in language, executive, and attentional functions that were far greater than had been expected and led to a major change in treatment strategy, including successful trial of imipramine and nadolol and more structured milieu therapy. The cognitive deficit and intrapsychic conflict models are used to demonstrate the critical aspects of our diagnostic reclassification of the patient to Neurodevelopmental Disorder of Unknown Etiology and Auditory Attention Deficit Disorder.
Although coronary heart disease remains a leading cause of death and disability in old age, the relationship of serum cholesterol level to risk of coronary heart disease in old age is controversial. Data for 2,388 white persons aged 65-74 who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study (NHEFS) were examined to determine the relationship of serum cholesterol level to coronary heart disease incidence and whether activity level would modify this relationship. While there was no overall relationship between serum cholesterol level and coronary heart disease risk in either men or women, the relationship between serum cholesterol level and coronary heart disease differed within activity groups. For persons who were more active, serum cholesterol level was associated with a graded increase in risk of coronary heart disease, from 1.3 (95% CI 0.7, 2.3) in those with serum cholesterol level of 4.7-5.1 to 1.7 in those with serum cholesterol level of 6.2 mmol/L or more (95% CI 1.0, 2.7), when compared with those with serum cholesterol level below 4.7. For the least active persons, all levels of cholesterol were associated with a significant inverse relative risk, including cholesterol of 6.2 mmol/L or more (Relative risk = 0.4 (95% CI 0.2, 0.7]. These data suggest that factors such as activity level may modify the serum cholesterol-coronary heart disease association in old age. The serum cholesterol-coronary heart disease association in more active older persons resembles that seen in younger populations, whereas the association in less active persons is that of serum cholesterol level and risk of cancer or death. The modification of the serum cholesterol-coronary heart disease association by activity level may have implications for appropriate clinical management as well as appropriate design of research studies of this association.
The objectives of this report are to document methods used to identify health service areas for the United States and to describe and evaluate these areas. A health service area is defined as one or more counties that are relatively self-contained with respect to the provision of routine hospital care. Service areas that include more than one county are characterized by travel between the counties for routine hospital care.
Contemporary surgery to rejuvenate the aging neck commonly includes some type of platysma modification. Most currently used methods of platysmaplasty involve upper midline plication, muscle resection, or transection. These methods, however, have their shortcomings, often producing necks that display persistent or recurrent paramedian muscle bands, visible submandibular gland bulges, and various contour irregularities. Corset platysmaplasty was developed to avoid these postoperative imperfections. After an adequate subcutaneous and subplatysmal lipectomy has been performed, the two medial edges of the platysma are joined together with a continuous suture that runs down, and up, and down almost the full-height of the neck to create a smooth, flat, multilayered seam, leaving no free muscle edges to return as visible bands. Progressive side-to-side tightening along the midline seam defines the "waistline" of the neck. Additional submandibular suturing is then done to create strong, flat, vertical muscle pleats that correct submandibular gland bulging and refine the jawline and anterolateral neck contours. Corset platysmaplasty is useful for all patients with visible paramedian muscle bands and all patients who would benefit from having a decussated upper neck platysma opened for submuscular defatting, including patients with oblique, palpably firm necks that suggest a vertically short platysma muscle or low-lying hyoid bone. The paper is based on the results with 75 patients having undergone corset platysmaplasty, most having been followed for 1 to 3 years.
This report describes the plan and operation for the 1986 data collection wave of the Epidemiologic Followup to the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I). Tracing and data collection were conducted on 3,980 persons 55-74 years of age at NHANES I who were not known to be deceased in the 1982-84 data collection wave of the NHANES I Epidemiologic Followup Study.