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Biomedical subjects

J L Griffith

Publications and source records attributed to J L Griffith.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
PubMed1997

Causes of chest pain and symptoms suggestive of acute cardiac ischemia in African-American patients presenting to the emergency department: a multicenter study.

This study examines whether race is a significant determinant of the diagnoses of acute myocardial infarction or angina pectoris in patients with symptoms suggestive of acute cardiac ischemia. The study population was comprised of 3401 (34%) African-American and 6600 (66%) white patients who presented to emergency departments with symptoms suggestive of acute cardiac ischemia. The main outcome measure was a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction or angina pectoris. African Americans were younger, predominantly female, and more often had hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or smoked. The diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction was confirmed in 6% of African-American and 12% of white men, and in 4% of African-American and 8% of white women. After adjusting for age, gender, medical history, signs and symptoms, and hospital, African Americans were half as likely to develop acute myocardial infarction and were 60% as likely to have acute cardiac ischemia. Despite having less acute cardiac ischemia, African Americans in this study had high risk levels for coronary artery disease.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1996

The use of empiric clinical data in the evaluation of practice guidelines for unstable angina.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the applicability to emergency department (ED) clinical practice of a nationally disseminated practice guideline on the disposition of patients with a diagnosis of unstable angina, and to determine the potential impact of the guideline on hospital admissions and demand for intensive care beds. DESIGN: Application of guideline criteria for ED disposition decisions to a validation sample derived from a prospective clinical trial. SETTING: Five hospitals, including 2 urban general teaching hospitals, 2 urban tertiary care university hospitals, and 1 suburban university-affiliated community hospital. PATIENTS: A consecutive sample of 457 patients who presented with symptoms suggestive of acute cardiac ischemia and who had "unstable angina" or "rule out unstable angina" diagnosed by ED physicians. Greater than 90% of eligible patients were enrolled in the clinical trial; follow-up data sufficient for assignment of a definitive diagnosis were obtained for 99% of subjects. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Acute myocardial infarction and unstable angina, based on blind review of initial and follow-up clinical data, including cardiac enzyme levels and electrocardiograms. After completion of the trial, without knowledge of final diagnosis or outcome, the investigators classified patients into risk groups specified by the unstable angina guideline. RESULTS: Of subjects with an ED diagnosis of unstable angina, only 6% (n=28) met the guideline's criteria corresponding to low risk for adverse events and were therefore suitable for discharge directly to home. Fifty-four percent (n=247) met the intermediate-risk criteria; 40% (n=182) met the high-risk criteria and were identified as requiring admission to an intensive care unit. Actual ED disposition differed from guideline recommendations in 2 major areas: only 4% (1/28) of low-risk patients were discharged to home with outpatient follow-up, and only 40% (72/182) of high-risk patients were admitted to an intensive care unit. CONCLUSIONS: Although the guideline was intended to reduce hospitalization by identifying a low-risk group, the small size of this group among ED patients suggests that little reduction in hospitalization can be expected. Indeed, the guideline may increase demand for the limited number of intensive care beds to accommodate patients with unstable angina considered high-risk but currently placed elsewhere. These results emphasize the need to use empiric data from target clinical settings to assess the likely actual impact of guidelines on clinical care prior to national dissemination.

Angina, Unstable↗
PubMed1996

Influence of sex on the use of cardiac procedures in patients presenting to the emergency department. A prospective multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Reports about the use of cardiac procedures have produced conflicting results as to whether there is a sex bias in the use of thrombolytic therapy, cardiac catheterization, or revascularization procedures. The present study was undertaken with the hope of resolving some of these different findings by examining the use of these therapies in women and men who presented to the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of acute cardiac ischemia. METHODS AND RESULTS: During 7 consecutive months in 1993, 10673 individuals > or = 30 years old who presented with chest pain or other symptoms suggestive of acute cardiac ischemia were enrolled in the Acute Cardiac Ischemia Time-Insensitive Predictive Instrument Clinical Trial at 10 hospitals in the East and Midwest. This study included 2542 patients (24% of all patients) who had confirmed acute myocardial infarction or angina pectoris. There were significant sex differences with respect to demographic and clinical characteristics and the use of cardiac procedures. Among patients with acute myocardial infarction, the use of thrombolytic therapy, cardiac catheterization, and revascularization procedures was similar in women and men after multivariate adjustment. However, in the group with angina pectoris, women were considerably less likely to undergo these procedures, even after adjustment for significant baseline covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Women with angina pectoris were less likely to undergo cardiac catheterization or revascularization procedures, although unmeasured factors could in part explain the observed differences.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Prediction of the infarct-related artery in acute myocardial infarction by a scoring system using summary ST-segment and T-wave changes.

We developed a scoring system to predict the artery responsible for an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) using ST-segment and T-wave changes on the initial electrocardiogram (ECG) using data from 228 patients (development set) with symptoms compatible with AMI and tested in a similar group of 223 patients (test set) from the Thrombolysis and Angioplasty in Myocardial Infarction (TAMI-5) Trial. Using stepwise logistic regression we were able to accurately predict the left anterior descending (LAD), right, or left circumflex (LC) coronary artery as the infarct-related artery using 2 variables: (1) the summation of the ST-segment elevation in leads V1 to V4; and (2) the summation of the T-wave negativity in leads I, aVL, and V5. In the development set, these 2 variables demonstrated respective sensitivity and specificity of 98% and 90% for LAD lesions, 82% and 85% for right narrowings, and 82% and 84% for LC narrowings. In the test set, the sensitivity and specificity were 97% and 95% for LAD lesions, 85% and 86% for right lesions, and 73% and 60% for LC coronary artery lesions. Information easily obtained on the ECG can accurately predict the likelihood of the LAD, right, or LC artery as the infarct-related artery. This may be useful in the decision to administer thrombolytic treatment.

Coronary Disease↗
PubMed1995

A comparison of performance of mathematical predictive methods for medical diagnosis: identifying acute cardiac ischemia among emergency department patients.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in mathematical methods for the prediction of medical outcomes. Three methods have attracted particular attention: logistic regression, classification trees (such as ID3 and CART), and neural networks. To compare their relative performance, we used a large clinical database to develop and compare models using these methods. METHODS: Each modeling method was used to generate predictive instruments for acute cardiac ischemia (which includes acute myocardial infarction and unstable angina pectoris), using prospectivel-collected clinical data on 5773 patients, who presented over a two year period to six hospitals' emergency departments with chest pain or symptoms suggesting acute ischemia. This data set was then split into training (n = 3453) and test (n = 2320) sets. Of 200 available variables, modeling was restricted to those available within the first 10 minutes of emergency department care (history, physical exam, and electrocardiogram). RESULTS: When the number of variables was limited to eight, representing a practical number for input in the real-time clinical setting, the logistic regression's receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve area, as a measure of diagnostic performance, was 0.887; the classification tree model's ROC curve area was 0.858, and the neural network's ROC curve area was 0.902. When the number of variables used by a model was not limited, the logistic regression's ROC area was 0.905, the classification tree model's 0.861, and the neural network's 0.923. Among these models the neural networks had noticeably poorer calibration. When the outputs from each of these unrestricted models were presented to each of the other methods as an additional independent variable, the ROC areas of the new "hybrid" models were not significantly better than the original unlimited models (ROC areas 0.858 to 0.920). CONCLUSIONS: Logistic regression, classification tree, and neural network models all can provide excellent predictive performance of medical outcomes for clinical decision aids and policy models. Their ultimate limitations seem due to the availability of the information in data (a "data barrier") rather than their respective intrinsic properties. Choices between these methods would seem to be most appropriately based on the needs of the specific application, rather than on the premise that any one of these methods is intrinsically more powerful.

Adult↗
PubMed1994

Electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy in patients with suspected acute cardiac ischemia--its influence on diagnosis, triage, and short-term prognosis: a multicenter study.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the diagnostic and short-term prognostic significance of electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH) for patients who present to the emergency department with symptoms suggesting acute cardiac ischemia, defined as new or unstable angina pectoris or acute myocardial infarction. DESIGN: Subgroup analysis of a multicenter, prospective study of coronary care unit admitting practices in the prethrombolytic era. SETTING: The emergency departments of six New England hospitals: two urban medical school teaching hospitals, two medical school-affiliated community hospitals in smaller cities, and two rural non-teaching teaching hospitals. PATIENTS: 5,768 patients presenting with symptoms suggesting possible acute cardiac ischemia, including 413 patients who had ECG-LVH defined by the Romhilt-Estes point score criteria and 5,355 patients who had other electrocardiogram (ECG) findings. MAIN RESULTS: Only 26% of the 413 patients who had ECG-LVH were ultimately judged to have had acute cardiac ischemia, compared with 72% of patients who had primary ST-segment and T-wave abnormalities (p < 0.001) and 36% of those who had other ECG abnormalities (p < 0.001). Overall, the ECG-LVH patients were one-third less likely than the patients who did not have ECG-LVH to have had acute cardiac ischemia, after controlling for other predictors of acute ischemia by logistic regression (relative risk = 0.66, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.94). The patients who had ECG-LVH were only one-fourth as likely to have had acute myocardial infarctions as were the patients presenting with primary ST-segment and T-wave changes (12% vs 48%, p < 0.001). Instead, a much larger proportion had had congestive heart failure or hypertension. The admitting physicians had identified ECG-LVH poorly on the admitting ECGs: only 22% of those who had ECG-LVH had been correctly identified, and for more than 70%, the secondary ST-segment and T-wave changes of ECG-LVH had been read as being primary. The short-term mortality for the patients who had ECG-LVH was 7.5%. This was intermediate between the mortality for patients who had primary ST-segment and T-wave abnormalities (10.6%) and those who had other ECG abnormalities (5.1%). Mortality was not affected by whether the admitting physician had recognized ECG-LVH initially. CONCLUSION: ECG-LVH was not a benign ECG finding among the patients who had presented with symptoms suggesting an acute cardiac ischemic syndrome: short-term mortality among the patients who had ECG-LVH (7.5%) approached that for the patients who had primary ST-segment and T-wave abnormalities (10.6%, p = 0.10). However, the patients who had ECG-LVH were one-third less likely to have had any acute cardiac ischemia than were the patients who did not have ECG-LVH, after logistic regression was used to control for other predictors of acute ischemia. Specifically, acute myocardial infarction was only one-fourth as likely when LVH was present on the admitting ECG (12%) as it was when primary ST-segment and T-wave abnormalities were present (48%, p < 0.001). Instead, congestive heart failure and hypertensive heart disease were more common. Thus, routine use of thrombolytic therapy for patients who have ECG-LVH does not seem warranted. ECG-LVH was poorly recognized (in only 22% of cases) by the physicians in the present study. Better recognition of this common ECG finding may lead to more effective patient management.

Aged↗
PubMed1994

Impact of the acute cardiac ischemia time-insensitive predictive instrument (ACI-TIPI) on the speed of triage decision making for emergency department patients presenting with chest pain: a controlled clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: Emergency department (ED) triage for acute cardiac ischemia in the primary teaching hospital in Geneva, Switzerland, is very accurate, but at the cost of very long ED stays. Thus, the authors sought: 1) to determine the impact of the acute cardiac ischemia time-insensitive predictive instrument (ACI-TIPI), incorporated into a computerized electrocardiograph, on length of stay and speed of triage decision making for ED patients presenting with symptoms suggesting acute cardiac ischemia, and 2) to study the ACI-TIPI's impact on physicians of different training levels. DESIGN: A seven-month prospective clinical trial with alternating-month experimental and control periods. SETTING: An urban major teaching hospital in Geneva, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Patients over the age of 18 years presenting to the ED with chest pain or other symptoms suggesting acute cardiac ischemia (acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina pectoris). Emergency department physicians, classified as novice (those in their first ED rotations) and experienced (those in their second or later ED rotations). Patients staying overnight in the ED (n = 111) were excluded from the analysis. INTERVENTION: During the experimental months, the computerized electrocardiograph printed the ACI-TIPI probability of acute cardiac ischemia at the top of each subject's electrocardiogram. During control months, the probability was not provided. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among the 418 study subjects, for patients with acute ischemia seen by novice clinicians, the use of the ACI-TIPI decreased ED time from presentation to triage decision and ED release by 0.7 hour (19%) (p = 0.007). Subgroup analyses for patients with acute myocardial infarction, patients with unstable angina pectoris, and patients given thrombolytic therapy also showed analogous decreases in ED time consistent with this finding. Other key determinants of ED length of stay included: age, whether the coronary care unit was full, whether patients received thrombolytic therapy, and whether admission was during the night shift. The experimental and control groups did not differ in triage disposition appropriateness or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: For ED patients with acute cardiac ischemia evaluated by novice clinicians, the ACI-TIPI substantially speeded ED decision making and triage. The suggestion of an impact on different cardiac ischemia subgroups and mortality deserves further larger clinical trials.

Coronary Care Units↗
PubMed1994

A time-insensitive predictive instrument for acute hospital mortality due to congestive heart failure: development, testing, and use for comparing hospitals: a multicenter study.

The purpose of this study was to develop a "time-insensitive" predictive instrument (TIPI) for acute hospital mortality due to congestive heart failure. In Phase 1, based on prospectively collected data on 401 congestive heart failure patients among 5,773 study patients who presented to six New England hospitals over a 2-year period whose chief complaints were chest pain, shortness of breath, or other cardiac symptoms, a multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the TIPI for acute mortality. Discrimination between patients who lived and those who died was reflected by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve area of 0.90. Predicted mortality was found to not vary significantly from actual mortality rates across deciles of predicted probabilities from 0% to 100%. In Phase 2, the six hospitals' actual mortality rates for their congestive heart failure patients were compared to their respective rates predicted by the TIPI. Actual hospital mortality rates ranged from 3.6% to 11.3%, with no hospital having a statistically significantly higher rate. Predicted mortality rates ranged from 4% to 9%, with one hospital having a significantly lower predicted rate (P = .01), and one hospital having a borderline significantly higher predicted rate (P = .07). Individual hospitals' differences between actual and predicted mortality ranged from -3.8% to +4.7% (all NS). When grouped by hospital type, respectively for urban teaching, smaller city teaching, and rural non-teaching hospitals, the actual mortality rates were 5.1%, 10.5%, and 5.4%, (NS). The predicted mortality rates were 8.3%, 6.1%, and 5.4%, respectively, with the rate for urban major teaching centers being significantly higher (P = .03). No hospital type had significant differences between their actual and predicted mortality rates (NS). This congestive heart failure mortality TIPI (CHFM-TIPI) shows potential for risk-adjusted studies of hospitals, mortality for multi-hospital groups, hospital-to-hospital comparisons, and potentially for within-hospital assessment and if further validated, potentially also for real-time clinical use.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1994

Predicting recovery of severe regional ventricular dysfunction. Comparison of resting scintigraphy with 201Tl and 99mTc-sestamibi.

BACKGROUND: Regional 201Tl activity after resting injection, imaged early and after redistribution, reflects viable myocardium and can predict improved isotope uptake as well as regional and global ventricular function after revascularization. 99mTc-sestamibi, a perfusion tracer with favorable imaging characteristics, has distinct kinetics compared with 201Tl, demonstrating minimal redistribution; this property may give 201Tl an advantage for detecting viable myocardium, particularly in segments with resting hypoperfusion. The purpose of this study was to compare regional activities of 201Tl and 99mTc-sestamibi after resting injections in patients with coronary artery disease and regional or global left ventricular dysfunction and to assess their comparative abilities for predicting recovery of severe regional ventricular dysfunction after revascularization. METHODS AND RESULTS: Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of rest and redistribution 201Tl activity and sestamibi activity 1 hour after rest injection were performed in 31 patients with coronary artery disease and left ventricular dysfunction. Quantitative analysis of three short-axis tomograms per patient was performed by use of circumferential profiles that allowed analysis of 12 segments per patient. Two-dimensional echocardiography was used to assess wall motion and thickening in segments corresponding to the single photon emission computed tomography data. Concordance between regional 201Tl activity at redistribution imaging and regional sestamibi activity by semiquantitative visual analysis demonstrated concordant regional activity in 87% of segments; among discordant segments, no significant skew was seen, indicating enhanced uptake of one agent over the other. Quantitative analysis for all segments showed significant correlation (r = .86, P < .001) between quantitative regional 201Tl redistribution activity and 1-hour post-rest injection sestamibi activity in individual segments. Eighteen of these patients were revascularized, and echocardiography was repeated 20 +/- 16 days later; segments exhibiting significant regional ventricular dysfunction before revascularization were classified as having reversible or irreversible dysfunction on the basis of the change in wall motion and thickening. 201Tl and sestamibi regional activities were similar in those segments with reversible (72 +/- 11% [percent of peak activity] versus 75 +/- 9%, respectively, P = NS) as well as irreversible ventricular dysfunction (51 +/- 11% versus 50 +/- 8%, P = NS). Positive (75% versus 80% for 201Tl and sestamibi, respectively) and negative (92% versus 96%, respectively) predictive values for recovery of regional ventricular dysfunction after revascularization were similar for the two agents. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with coronary artery disease and left ventricular dysfunction, quantified sestamibi activity 1 hour after rest injection parallels redistribution 201Tl activity after a resting injection, suggesting that uptake and subsequent handling of sestamibi are more complex than can be explained by a pure flow tracer with no redistribution. Quantitative analysis of regional activities of both 201Tl and sestamibi after resting injections can differentiate viable from nonviable myocardium, and the two agents comparably predict reversibility of significant regional wall motion abnormalities after revascularization in such patients to a similar degree.

Adult↗
PubMed1994

Presenting pulse pressure predicts thrombolytic therapy-related intracranial hemorrhage. Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (TPI) Project results.

BACKGROUND: In selecting patients with acute myocardial infarction for thrombolytic therapy, it is important to identify patients who are at high risk for intracranial hemorrhage, for whom thrombolytic therapy is ill advised. We hypothesized that presenting pulse blood pressure, representing the "hammer" effect on cerebral vessels and the effects of age on arterial compliance, might predict thrombolysis-related intracranial hemorrhage better than systolic, diastolic, or mean arterial blood pressures. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 3483 Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (TPI) Project subjects receiving thrombolytic therapy for acute infarction, we identified and obtained detailed clinical data on the 19 with treatment-related intracranial hemorrhages confirmed by computed tomography and on 175 matched controls. Systolic, diastolic, mean arterial, and pulse blood pressures were each significantly related to the occurrence of intracranial hemorrhage, with pulse pressure most highly related. The mean pulse pressure in patients who developed intracranial hemorrhage was 63 mm Hg, 34% higher than the 47 mm Hg mean value for those not developing hemorrhage (P = .0001). Excess pulse pressure, defined as the extent to which a patient's pulse pressure exceeded 40 mm Hg for systolic blood pressures of at least 120 mm Hg, was even more strongly related: its mean value of 23 mm Hg for patients was 130% higher than its mean value of 10 mm Hg for controls (P < .0001). With logistic regression models to estimate the relative risks (odds ratios) for intracranial hemorrhage conferred by each form of blood pressure, the relative risk for hemorrhage was greatest for excess pulse pressure: for each 10-point pulse pressure excess, the relative risk for intracranial hemorrhage was increased by 1.85 (P = .0002; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34 to 2.55) by itself and 1.76 (P = .001; 95% CI, 1.26 to 2.46) when adjusted for age. In this sample, excess pulse pressure by itself predicted hemorrhage as well as systolic pressure and age together. When excess pulse pressure was combined with age to make a logistic regression model predicting intracranial hemorrhage, age contributed less to the prediction than when combined with the other blood pressure forms, even though this model predicted better than any other combination of age and pressure (receiver-operating characteristic curve area, 0.82 versus 0.77 with systolic pressure and age, 0.75 with mean arterial pressure, 0.71 with diastolic pressure, and 0.81 with both systolic and diastolic pressures). CONCLUSIONS: We found that excess pulse blood pressure predicted thrombolysis-related intracranial hemorrhage better than other forms of pretreatment blood pressure, perhaps better describing the pathophysiology of intracranial hemorrhage, including the effect of age. These findings will need confirmation in larger studies with comparable clinical detail.

Aged↗
PubMed1993

A comparison of logistic regression to decision-tree induction in a medical domain.

This paper compares the performance of logistic regression to decision-tree induction in classifying patients as having acute cardiac ischemia. This comparison was performed using the database of 5773 patients originally used to develop the logistic-regression tool and test it prospectively. Both the ability to classify cases and the ability to estimate the probability of ischemia were compared on the default tree generated by the C4 version of ID3. They were also compared on a tree optimized on the learning set by increased pruning of overspecified branches, and on a tree incorporating clinical considerations. Both the LR tool and the improved trees performed at a level fairly close to that of the physicians, although the LR tool definitely performed better than the decision tree. There were a number of differences in the performance of the two methods, shedding light on their strengths and weaknesses.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1991

Development of sustained achlorhydria in a patient with the Zollinger-Ellison syndrome treated with omeprazole.

Spontaneous remission of gastric acid hypersecretion in the Zollinger-Ellison syndrome occurs rarely. This study shows the development of gastric secretory mucosal atrophy resulting in achlorhydria and loss of pepsin secretion in a 63-year-old woman with the Zollinger-Ellison syndrome. Reduced secretion began soon after starting treatment with omeprazole, and achlorhydria became complete 6 months later. The patient remains well with normal endoscopy results and is achlorhydric 4 years after the start of treatment and 34 months after stopping omeprazole. She was not colonized with Helicobacter pylori until 36 months after developing achlorhydria. Serum gastrin has increased from 1000 to between 5000 and 12,500 ng/L (pg/mL), was not suppressible by gastric acidification, and was not associated with G-cell hyperplasia. She also has a normal Schilling test and normal immunoglobulins, and lacks antibodies to parietal cells or H+, K(+)-ATPase. Moderate enterochromaffinlike cell hyperplasia is apparent for the first time on the latest biopsy sample.

Achlorhydria↗
PubMed1991

A tool for judging coronary care unit admission appropriateness, valid for both real-time and retrospective use. A time-insensitive predictive instrument (TIPI) for acute cardiac ischemia: a multicenter study.

This study developed and tested a tool to assess the likelihood of patients having acute cardiac ischemia and thus the appropriateness of admitting them to the coronary care unit (CCU). It is valid both for real-time clinical use and for retrospective review: a time-insensitive predictive instrument (TIPI). The authors' earlier acute ischemia predictive instrument, not designed specifically to support retrospective use, could not offer the advantage of a single tool usable by both clinicians and reviewers of care. Over a two-year period, the authors prospectively collected data on 5,773 emergency room patients seen in six New England hospitals for symptoms suggesting acute cardiac ischemia. In the Developmental Phase, based on 3,453 such patients seen during the first year, the authors developed a logistic regression-based TIPI for acute cardiac ischemia. Using seven clinical features reliably ascertainable both in the emergency room setting and by medical record review, the TIPI expressed a patient's probability of having acute ischemia as between 0-100%. In this phase, a risk category system based on the TIPI scale was also devised, which created four similar-sized groups, by cutting at 10%, 25%, and 55%. In the Test Phase, when prospectively tested on the 2,320 emergency room patients seen during the second year, the TIPI showed excellent diagnostic performance. Its receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve area of 0.88 was comparable to the original predictive instrument and the ROC curve path suggested performance comparable to physicians as well. Its slope of the relationship between predicted and observed probabilities of having acute ischemia was 1.11 (R2 = 0.97) with a correlation of 0.99 (P less than 0.0001), suggesting excellent calibration of predictions throughout the probability range. For patients who proved to have acute ischemia, the average TIPI probability was 59%, whereas for those without ischemia, the average TIPI value was 21% (P less than 0.0001). This differentiation was maintained even for those given different (including inappropriate) triage to the CCU, ward, or home (P less than 0.0001 for each disposition). When the performance of the four TIPI-based risk groups was prospectively tested on year-two patients, among the 552 patients in the low probability group, only 1.6% had acute cardiac ischemia, including only 0.7% with acute infarctions. Among the 484 patients in the high probability group, 81.6% had acute ischemia, and 53.3% acute myocardial infarctions, suggesting these to be clinically relevant groups for aiding or assessing emergency room triage.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Adult↗
PubMed1991

A time-insensitive predictive instrument for acute myocardial infarction mortality: a multicenter study.

This study develops a "time-insensitive" predictive instrument for acute myocardial infarction mortality that would be useful both as a real-time clinical decision aid in the emergency medical setting and also for retrospective assessment and comparison of medical care based on risk-adjusted mortality predictions. This was done using prospectively-collected data on 5,773 patients with chief complaints of chest pain or other symptoms suggesting acute cardiac ischemia who came to six New England hospitals over a 2-year period. In phase one, based upon 4,099 patients, multivariate logistic regression was used to develop the predictive instrument. In phase two, its accuracy and diagnostic performance were tested on an independent sample of 1,387 patients presenting with symptoms compatible with acute cardiac ischemia. Discrimination between patients who lived and those who died was reflected by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve areas of 0.85, 0.80, and 0.76, respectively, for all emergency department study subjects regardless of final diagnosis, subjects who proved to be having acute cardiac ischemia, and subjects who proved to be having acute infarction. Good calibration was shown by the fact that the predicted mortality was found to not vary significantly from actual mortality rates across deciles of predicted probabilities from 0% to 100%. In phase three, based on all 945 study subjects with acute myocardial infarction, each of the six hospitals' actual mortality rates were compared to their rates predicted by the predictive instrument. Actual hospital mortality rates ranged from 9.9% to 19.3%, with one hospital having a significantly higher rate (P = 0.005) and two hospitals both). Predicted mortality rates ranged from 13.4% to 19.4%, with one hospital having a significantly higher predicted rate (P = 0.005) and two hospitals having significantly lower predicted rates (P = 0.04 and P = 0.03). Individual hospitals' differences between actual and predicted mortality ranged from -3.4% to +3.1% (all NS). When grouped by hospital type, the actual mortality rates were 14.9%, 17.3%, and 13.0%, respectively, for urban teaching, smaller city teaching, and rural nonteaching hospitals (all NS). The predicted mortality rates were 16.5%, 17.1%, and 13.6%, respectively, with the rate for rural nonteaching hospitals being significantly lower (P = 0.009). No hospital type had significant differences between their actual and predicted mortality rates (NS). The time-insensitive predictive instrument for acute infarction mortality shows potential for risk-adjusted studies of hospitals mortality for multihospital groups, hospital-to-hospital comparisons, and within-hospital assessment.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Adult↗
PubMed1990

Mind-body problems in family therapy: contrasting first- and second-order cybernetics approaches.

Using detailed case examples, we contrast first- and second-order cybernetics approaches to family problems involving somatic symptoms in a family member. A second-order cybernetics approach views the reality of the problem as linguistically shaped by those interacting around it, including the therapist and observing team members. This co-constructed reality, the story of the problem, inadvertently contributes to the problem's endurance by narrowing the choice of more effective solutions. In our approach, the therapist elicits from each person his or her story about the illness in the family. The therapist then facilitates a therapeutic conversation that provides a context for new linguistic distinctions to be drawn, including the way mind and body may interact to generate the symptoms. Shifts in beliefs and behaviors follow, and more innovative solutions to the problem can then emerge. Unlike the approach in our previously published work based upon ecosystemic patterns as "system diagnoses," this approach uses only descriptions and explanations of the problem as are collaboratively constructed within this therapeutic conversation.

Adult↗