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Biomedical subjects

J Lubitz

Publications and source records attributed to J Lubitz.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2000

The effect of longevity on spending for acute and long-term care.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of the population made up of elderly persons in the United States is projected to increase from 13 percent of the population in 2000 to 20 percent by 2030. The implications for health care expenditures may be profound, because elderly persons use health care services at a greater rate than younger persons. We estimated total expenditures for acute and long-term care from the age of 65 years until death and in the last two years of life. METHODS: We combined data from Medicare, the National Mortality Followback Survey, and the National Medical Expenditure Survey to estimate total national expenditures for health care according to the age at death. We also simulated expenditures with the use of projected demographic characteristics of two cohorts: people turning 65 in 2000 and those turning 65 in 2015. RESULTS: Total expenditures (in 1996 dollars) from the age of 65 years until death increase substantially with longevity, from $31,181 for persons who die at the age of 65 years to more than $200,000 for those who die at the age of 90, in part because of steep increases in nursing home expenditures for very old persons. Spending in the last two years of life also increases with longevity, but a reduction in Medicare expenditures ($37,000 for persons who die at the age of 75 years and $21,000 for those who die at the age of 95) moderates the effect of the increase in nursing home expenditures ($6,000 for those who die at the age of 75 years and $32,000 for those who die at the age of 95). Health care spending for women is consistently higher than that for men, after adjustment for the increased longevity of women. Simulations show that increased longevity after the age of 65 years has a relatively small effect on the anticipated increase in spending, especially for services covered by Medicare, from 2000 to 2015. The effects of the larger number of people born in 1950 than in 1935 and the larger number of people surviving to the age of 65 years are much more important. CONCLUSIONS: In the United States, the effect of longevity on expenditures for acute care differs from its effect on expenditures for long-term care. Acute care expenditures, principally for hospital care and physicians' services, increase at a reduced rate as the age at death increases, whereas expenditures for long-term care increase at an accelerated rate. Increases in longevity after the age of 65 years may result in greater spending for long-term care, but the increase in the number of elderly persons has a more important effect on total spending.

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PubMed1999

Capitated payment approaches for Medicaid-financed long-term care services.

In the following analysis, the authors examine the capitated payment approaches for long-term care (LTC) services of five programs: the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE), the Arizona Long-Term Care System (ALTCS), the Texas STAR + PLUS, the Minnesota Senior Health Option (MSHO), and the Monroe County Continuing Care Networks (CCNs) in New York. The authors describe key aspects in the design of these programs, with an emphasis on Medicaid reimbursement, and discuss differences and commonalities in the approaches taken by the programs in setting capitation rates.

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PubMed1998

Benefit of a favorable cardiovascular risk-factor profile in middle age with respect to Medicare costs.

BACKGROUND: People without major risk factors for cardiovascular disease in middle age live longer than those with unfavorable risk-factor profiles. It is not known whether such low-risk status also results in lower expenditures for medical care at older ages. We used data from the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry to assess the relation of a low risk of cardiovascular disease in middle age to Medicare expenditures later in life. METHODS: We studied 7039 men and 6757 women who were 40 to 64 years of age when surveyed between 1967 and 1973 and who survived to have at least two years of Medicare coverage in 1984 through 1994. Men and women classified as being at low risk for cardiovascular disease were those who had the following characteristics at the time they were initially surveyed: serum cholesterol level, <200 mg per deciliter (5.2 mmol per liter); blood pressure, < or =120/80 mm Hg; no current smoking; an absence of electrocardiographic abnormalities; no history of diabetes; and no history of myocardial infarction. We compared Medicare costs for the 279 men (4.0 percent) and 298 women (4.4 percent) who had this low-risk profile with those for the rest of the study group, who were not at low risk. Health Care Financing Administration charges for services to Medicare beneficiaries were used to estimate average annual health care costs (total costs, those for cardiovascular diseases, and those for cancer). RESULTS: Average annual health care charges were much lower for persons at low risk - the total charges for the men at low risk were less than two thirds of the charges for the men not at low risk ($1,615 less); for the women at low risk, the charges were less than one half of those for the women not at low risk ($1,885 less). Charges related to cardiovascular disease were lower for the low-risk groups of men and women than for those not at low risk (by $979 and $556, respectively), and charges related to cancer were also lower (by $134 and $189). CONCLUSIONS: People with favorable cardiovascular risk profiles in middle age had lower average annual Medicare charges in older age. Having optimal status with respect to major cardiovascular risk factors may result not only in greater longevity but also in lower health care costs.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Medicare Part A utilization and expenditures for psychiatric services: 1995.

This study provides an overview of Medicare's current coverage and payment policies regarding hospitalization for psychiatric disorders, and presents new information on demographic, diagnostic, utilization, and expenditure characteristics associated with inpatient psychiatric care among 1995 Medicare beneficiaries. Results suggest that utilization and expenditure patterns for Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for psychiatric illness in 1995 differ across demographic (e.g., age, sex, race) and diagnostic categories. The implications of these findings for current management of the Medicare program as well as the evolution of Medicare managed care systems for behavioral health services are discussed.

Demography↗
PubMed1995

Longevity and Medicare expenditures.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, the elderly account for over one third of health care spending. The total population over the age of 65 is projected to increase, as is life expectancy beyond the age of 65. We studied current patterns of Medicare expenses according to age at death and the possible effect of future demographic changes on Medicare spending. METHODS: We used data from the Medicare program to estimate lifetime Medicare expenses for a sample of 129,166 beneficiaries, 65 or older, who died in 1989 and 1990, according to age at death. Spending for nursing home care not covered by Medicare was excluded. (Nursing home costs represent about 20 percent of total health care spending for the elderly and increase with age.) Through simulation, we assessed the lifetime payments by Medicare for enrollees who turned 65 in 1990 and those who will do so in 2020. RESULTS: Estimated lifetime Medicare payments (in 1990 dollars) ranged from $13,044 for persons who died at 65 years of age, to $56,094 for those who died at 80, to $65,633 for those who died at 101 or older. The payments associated with an additional year of life and the average annual payments over an enrolle's lifetime both decreased as the age at death increased. The estimated 7.9 percent increase in life expectancy beyond 65 years that will have taken place between 1990 and 2020 (19.1 years past the age of 65 in 2020, as compared with 17.7 years in 1990) was associated with an estimated increase of 2.0 percent in lifetime Medicare payments. Of the estimated $98 billion increase in total lifetime payments (in 1990 dollars) from the 1990 group to the 2020 group, 74.3 percent was due to the larger size of the original birth cohort who will reach the age of 65 in 2020, 22.5 percent to an increase in the proportion of that birth cohort projected to survive to 65 years of age, and 3.2 percent to improved life expectancy beyond 65. CONCLUSIONS: The effect on Medicare spending of increased longevity beyond the age of 65 may not be great. Total Medicare payments will be more substantially affected by the expected increase in the absolute number of elderly people.

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PubMed1993

Medicare beneficiaries: adverse outcomes after hospitalization for eight procedures.

Rehospitalization following surgery is widely recognized as an important outcome measure. The purpose of this study was to identify rehospitalizations for adverse events following 8 procedures, using diagnosis and procedure codes contained in Medicare claims files. Adverse events were broadly defined as: 1) complications; 2) failure of the procedure to achieve its therapeutic goal; and 3) untoward events associated with the natural history of the disease being treated with the procedure. Expert panels identified specific diagnosis and procedure codes that might indicate an adverse event if they appeared on the Medicare record of a rehospitalization. Among patients undergoing percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, almost 36% were rehospitalized for an adverse event within a year of surgery; among patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery, 20% were rehospitalized for an adverse event. Following the other 6 procedures (cholecystectomy, partial excision of the large intestine, total knee replacement, total hip replacement, replacement of the head of the femur, and reduction of fracture of the femur) between 4% and 9% of patients were rehospitalized for an adverse event. Findings from this exploratory study indicate that rehospitalizations for adverse events appear to be a useful outcome measure for the cardiac procedures; they appear to be less useful for the other procedures, at least at the individual hospital or small area level, because of their relative rarity. Future studies should investigate procedures associated with more frequent rehospitalizations, and medical admissions, which often tend to be associated with higher rehospitalization levels.

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PubMed1993

A longitudinal perspective on patterns of Medicare payments.

To provide insight into the stream of Medicare payments over time, a sixteen-year longitudinal study examines three age cohorts of beneficiaries, looking separately at beneficiaries who died during the study period and those who survived. The common wisdom that a small minority of the population accounts for a large majority of health care expenditures is tempered when health care use is examined over an extended period of time. By putting high average costs in the final years of life in the context of a cohort's total lifetime experience, the study shows a leveling of spending over time, resulting in a lower concentration of health care resources on a small fraction of the population.

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PubMed1991

U.S. initiatives and approaches for outcomes and effectiveness research.

This paper provides an overview of the new Federal initiative underway to promote research in outcomes and effectiveness of services provided in the U.S. It discusses the factors that stimulated the U.S. government ot undertake this initiative and summarizes past research and current efforts to advance knowledge about utilization and outcomes of care. A focal point of this initiative is to take advantage of information in large, administrative data bases to monitor the use, costs and outcomes of medical services. As part of this initiative, the Federal Government for the first time assembled detailed data, by geographic area and by demographic groups, on the hospitalization, mortality and rehospitalization experience of the entire Medicare population. The paper describes this project and illustrates uses of these data.

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PubMed1991

Enrollee health status under Medicare risk contracts: an analysis of mortality rates.

Previous studies comparing the health status of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled under HMO risk contracts to that of Medicare beneficiaries in fee-for-service (FFS) have generally focused on demonstration projects conducted before 1985. This study examines mortality rates in 1987 for approximately 1 million aged Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in 108 HMOs. We estimated adjusted mortality ratios (AMR) for each HMO and across all HMOs, by dividing the actual number of deaths among HMO enrollees by the "expected" number of deaths. The expected number of deaths was based on death rates among local FFS populations, adjusting for age, sex, Medicaid buy-in status, and institutional status. The AMR for all HMO enrollees pooled together was 0.80. For persons newly enrolled in 1987, the AMR was 0.69; in general, AMRs were higher for beneficiaries who had been enrolled for longer periods of time. Among individual HMOs, none exhibited an AMR substantially above 1.00. Regression analysis indicated lower AMRs for staff model HMOs than for either IPA or group models. Low mortality among Medicare HMO enrollees is consistent with favorable selection or with improvements in the health status of enrollees due to better access or quality of care in HMOs. In either case, health status differences between HMO enrollees and FFS beneficiaries have implications for the appropriateness of Medicare's Adjusted Average Per Capita Cost (AAPCC) payment formula for HMOs.

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PubMed1990

Trends and patterns in place of death for Medicare enrollees.

Two changes in the Medicare program in 1983 may have affected where aged persons die--the change from retrospective hospital reimbursement to the prospective payment system and passage of the Medicare hospice benefit. Patterns and trends in where people die--hospitals, other institutions such as nursing homes, decedents' homes, and other places--for persons 65 years of age or over from 1980 through 1986 are examined. The proportion of deaths in hospitals declined somewhat after implementation of prospective payment. The hospice benefit may have caused the shift among cancer patients away from hospital deaths toward deaths at home.

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PubMed1987

Nursing home costs for those dually entitled to Medicare and Medicaid.

The focus of this article is the impact of nursing home care on total Medicare and Medicaid expenditures for the aged population entitled to both programs. To determine these costs for 1981, data in the Health Care Financing Administration's Medicare Statistical System were linked, for the first time, to data in the Medicaid system for four States. Also examined are expenditure patterns for survivors and decedents using nursing home services. Results indicate that the two most significant factors influencing costs or the dually entitled elderly are the use of nursing home services and the costs of care in the last months of life. An unexpected finding was that of the 73 percent who neither died nor were in a nursing home, per capita expenditures were remarkedly constant across all age groups.

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PubMed1987

The use and costs of Medicare services by cause of death.

The high costs and difficult ethical and medical issues often associated with care of the dying are of special interest to the Medicare program, because enrollees in their last year of life account for over one-fourth of total Medicare expenditures. In this study, we look at those costs by cause of death for aged Medicare beneficiaries who died in 1979. We found that expenditures varied markedly by cause of death. Cancer was the most expensive leading cause of death, with per capita expenses of $8,021, compared with $4,012 for heart disease. Because of the greater number of deaths from heart disease, expenses for heart disease decedents accounted for 8.2% of the total Medicare budget in 1979 compared with 7.2% for cancer. These data provide a baseline with which to evaluate the effects of major changes in Medicare on care for the dying.

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PubMed1987

Health status adjustments for Medicare capitation.

The issue of biased selection has taken on increased importance because of the growing numbers of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in capitated systems. One way to deal with biased selection is through adjusting payment to health plans to reflect enrollee health status. This paper reviews proposed health status adjustors based on perceived health status, functional health status, health service use, program entitlement data, mortality, and risk factors. There is evidence that almost all of these could perform better in a statistical sense than the current Medicare HMO payment formula. For policy purposes, the most practical adjustors at present are measures based on prior use of services. These could be tested and perhaps implemented now as work proceeds on other adjustors.

Capitation Fee↗
PubMed1987

Medicare utilization by disabled-worker beneficiaries: a longitudinal analysis.

Medicare eligibility for Social Security disabled-worker beneficiaries begins after 2 years of cash benefit receipt. Extension of the current coverage is often proposed as a way to encourage beneficiaries to return to work. Little is known, however, about the long-run Medicare costs for the disabled and how costs vary by demographic and health characteristics. This article describes Medicare utilization and reimbursement amounts for 1974-81 for a cohort of disabled-worker beneficiaries under age 62 and first entitled to cash benefits in 1972. The data come from a first-time linkage of Disability Insurance program data with data on Medicare utilization. The tables provide a detailed look at several factors that are associated with variation in Medicare costs among beneficiaries and over time.

Persons with Disabilities↗
PubMed1986

Changes in distribution of Medicare expenditures among aged enrollees, 1969-82.

In this article, we examined the concentration of Medicare expenditures among the aged for 1969, 1975, and 1982 to determine if expenditures have become more concentrated among a few heavy users of service over time. Despite an increase in reimbursements for the aged from $6.0 billion in 1969 to $41.8 billion in 1982, the distribution of those expenses remained remarkably stable, with a slight lessening in the concentration of reimbursements in 1982. Patterns were similar for both Part A (hospital insurance) and Part B (supplementary medical insurance) services. The concentration of expenditures was much greater among survivors than among people who died in both 1975 and 1982, with little change in the distribution of expenditures within either group.

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