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Biomedical subjects

J M Cultice

Publications and source records attributed to J M Cultice.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1999

Eliminating primary care health professional shortage areas: the impact of Title VII generalist physician education.

Most policy-makers and researchers agree that although the United States is headed for a significant physician surplus, problems of equity in access to care still remain. To help meet this challenge, Title VII of the Public Health Service Act focuses on producing generalist physicians to serve in medically underserved areas (MUAs). This study estimates the impact Title VII support for generalist training has on reducing and eliminating health professional shortage areas (HPSAs) under multiple scenarios that vary either the Title VII funding level or the percentage of Title VII-funded program graduates who practice in MUAs. For each scenario, the number of Title VII-funded residency graduates who initially practice in MUAs and the time it would take to eliminate HPSAs are estimated. Using 1996 rates, the analysis predicts that 1,214 generalist physicians will enter practice in HPSAs annually, leading to elimination of HPSAs in 24 years. In 1997, Title VII-funded programs increased the rate of graduates entering HPSAs, resulting in 1,357 providers and reducing the time for HPSA elimination to 15 years. Doubling the funding for these programs would increase the number of Title VII-funded generalist physicians entering MUAs and could decrease the time for HPSA elimination to as little as 6 years. The study concludes that eliminating HPSAs requires broader Title VII influence and continuous improvement in rates of production of graduates who practice in MUAs. Without Title VII graduates and continuous improvement of Title VII program, MUA rates, the number of HPSAs and the number of Americans with reduced access to essential health care will continue to expand.

Forecasting↗
PubMed1997

Forecasting the need for physicians in the United States: the Health Resources and Services Administration's physician requirements model.

OBJECTIVE: The Health Resources and Services Administration's Bureau of Health Professions developed a demographic utilization-based model of physician specialty requirements to explore the consequences of a broad range of scenarios pertaining to the nation's health care delivery system on need for physicians. DATA SOURCE/STUDY SETTING: The model uses selected data primarily from the National Center for Health Statistics, the American Medical Association, and the U.S. Bureau of Census. Forecasts are national estimates. STUDY DESIGN: Current (1989) utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient medical specialty services were obtained for the population according to age, gender, race/ethnicity, and insurance status. These rates are used to estimate specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to physician requirements by applying per-physician productivity estimates. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Secondary data were analyzed and put into matrixes for use in the mainframe computer-based model. Several missing data points, e.g., for HMO-enrolled populations, were extrapolated from available data by the project's contractor. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The authors contend that the Bureau's demographic utilization model represents improvements over other data-driven methodologies that rely on staffing ratios and similar supply-determined bases for estimating requirements. The model's distinct utility rests in offering national-level physician specialty requirements forecasts.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1996

Effect of debt on U.S. medical school graduates' preferences for family medicine, general internal medicine, and general pediatrics.

The authors assess the importance of educational debt in graduates' primary care specialty choices, and the variety of mechanisms through which debt may influence career decisions. Logistic regression models were used to identify significant predictors of the primary care specialty choices made by the 1991 and 1992 graduates of U.S. medical schools. These predictors were debt itself; other financial indicators; certain medical school characteristics; certain practice location plans; certain demographic factors; aspects of academic performance; and students' predisposition to a primary care specialty. Data for this study were gathered from a variety of sources at the Association of American Medical Colleges and from the Health Education Assistance Loans program. Both direct and indirect effects of debt were identified under specific conditions. The study revealed complex relationships between debt and the other predictors identified. For example, debt operated in relation to the levels of the graduates' expected incomes; debt from subsidized loan sources was significant for women who chose general internal medicine; debt was important in choices of family practice; and debt by itself was significant for those planning to practice in the West and who chose general internal medicine. Also, seemingly opposing effects of debt occurred. For example, in the family practice model used in this study, the threshold effect of debt was positive, while the linear effect of debt above the threshold was negative. Such vriations help explain the conflicting findings of some past research. These and other findings prompt the authors to state that when investigating the effects of debt, it is not fruitful to ask what the effect of the debt is on all three primary care fields as a group. It is more appropriate to ask several questions, such as: under what conditions does debt influence specialty plans? Among which groups of students does debt have an impact on specialty plans? Are all of the primary care specialties similarly affected by the issues surrounding debt? Does the effect of debt change over time? The authors conclude by indicating possible policy implications of their findings.

Career Choice↗
PubMed1996

Matching physician supply and requirements: testing policy recommendations.

Managed care has been growing and likely will increase market share. This movement will require fundamental alterations in the number and specialty distribution of physicians. Under current production, future supply does not appear well-matched with requirements. Although the adequacy of generalist supply is of concern, the oversupply of specialists is the overriding problem. Neither reducing the number of first-year residents nor increasing the generalist output alone would bring both generalist and specialist supply within requirement ranges. Combining an increase in generalist production to 50% with a reduction in first-year residents to 110% of the number of U.S. medical graduates would minimize the projected specialty surplus while maintaining generalist supply within the requirement range.

Education, Medical, Graduate↗
PubMed1993

The elusive generalist physician. Can we reach a 50% goal?

National attention has focused on the goal of attaining 50% primary care practitioners to facilitate patient access and cost-effectiveness. To determine how long it might take to achieve this goal, we used the Bureau of Health Professions' aggregate physician supply model to forecast the generalist-specialist balance. Assuming that 30% of graduates will enter generalist practice after 1993 (the percentage in the mid-1980s), the number of generalists would increase from 174,940 in 1990 to 232,000 in 2040 (77 per 100,000 population), but the percentage would remain at about 30%; specialists would continue to make up about 70% of all active physicians, but their total number would grow from 345,600 to 537,000 (178 per 100,000 population). If 50% of graduates were to enter generalist practices, by the year 2040 the number of generalists would grow to 373,000, or 124 per 100,000 (48.4% of all physicians). If entry into generalist practice falls to 20%, as suggested by recent medical student preferences, the number of generalists would peak at 192,000 (26.4%) in 2010 and would fall to 160,000 (21%) by 2040, resulting in 53 generalists and 201 specialists per 100,000 population. We discuss the implications of these findings on aggregate physician supply and on policy initiative affecting the ratio of generalists to specialists. Reform proposals affecting the specialty mix should clearly identify the desired future ratio of generalists and specialists per capita.

Family Practice↗
PubMedDate not supplied

How many pharmacists are in our future? The Bureau of Health Professions Projects Supply to 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To describe a Bureau of Health Professions model for estimating the numbers and selected demographic characteristics of active pharmacists in the United States and to relate the model's findings. DESIGN: We constructed a model using as base counts data from the Pharmacy Manpower Project census of 1989 to 1991 and advancing the counts annually based on estimates of pharmacists entering and leaving the workforce. The total number of active pharmacists in any year was the sum of the male and female cohorts from age 24 through age 75. The model and its underlying assumptions included consideration of U.S. graduates through 1998, international pharmacy graduates who become licensed in the United States, new schools, type of entry-level degrees, and separation rates. A basic series and high and low alternative series were constructed based on different assumptions. RESULTS: The basic series projected 196,011 active pharmacists in 2000, 224,524 by 2010, and 249,086 by 2020. Estimated pharmacists per-100,000 population were 71.2 in 2000, 74.9 in 2010, and 76.7 in 2020. The workforce was projected to consist increasingly of women: 32% in 1991, 46% in 2000, 50% in 2003, and 64% in 2020. Percentages of graduates receiving the BS degree fell from 94% (1980) to 64.4% (1998) and were projected to decrease to 0% by 2005. Estimated U.S. graduates were 7,945 in 2000, 8,133 in 2010, and 8,452 in 2020. The mean age in 2000 was 38 years for women pharmacists, 46 for men, and 42 overall. Estimates of total pharmacists in 1998 were similar to those from other sources, increasing confidence in the model. CONCLUSION: The Bureau of Health Professions model, which can be readily revised as more and better data become available, provided estimates of active pharmacists by age and sex from 1991 to 2020. The model portrayed an increasingly female pharmacy workforce, with more pharmacists holding the PharmD degree. The model and data are useful for research, analysis, and health care planning.

Adult↗