J M Zurada | PubMed Health

PubMed2001

Bi-directional computing architecture for time series prediction.

A number of neural network models and training procedures for time series prediction have been proposed in the technical literature. These models studied for different time-variant data sets have typically used uni-directional computation flow or its modifications. In this study, on the contrary, the concept of bi-directional computational style is proposed and applied to prediction tasks. A bi-directional neural network model consists of two subnetworks performing two types of signal transformations bi-directionally. The networks also receive complementary signals from each other through mutual connections. The model not only deals with the conventional future prediction task, but also with the past prediction, an additional task from the viewpoint of the conventional approach. An improvement of the performance is achieved through making use of the future-past information integration. Since the coupling effects help the proposed model improve its performance, it is found that the prediction score is better than with the traditional uni-directional method. The bi-directional predicting architecture has been found to perform better than the conventional one when tested with standard benchmark sunspots data.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗

PubMed1995

Neural network predicted peak and trough gentamicin concentrations.

Predictions of steady state peak and trough serum gentamicin concentrations were compared between a traditional population kinetic method using the computer program NONMEM to an empirical approach using neural networks. Predictions were made in 111 patients with peak concentrations between 2.5 and 6.0 micrograms/ml using the patient factors age, height, weight, dose, dose interval, body surface area, serum creatinine, and creatinine clearance. Predictions were also made on 33 observations that were outside the 2.5 and 6.0 micrograms/ml range. Neural networks made peak serum concentration predictions within the 2.5-6.0 micrograms/ml range with statistically less bias and comparable precision with paired NONMEM predictions. Trough serum concentration predictions were similar using both neural networks and NONMEM. The prediction error for peak serum concentrations averaged 16.5% for the neural networks and 18.6% for NONMEM. Average prediction errors for serum trough concentrations were 48.3% for neural networks and 59.0% for NONMEM. NONMEM provided numerically more precise and less biased predictions when extrapolating outside the 2.5 and 6.0 micrograms/ml range. The observed peak serum concentration distribution was multimodal and the neural network reproduced this distribution with less difference between the actual distribution and the predicted distribution than NONMEM. It is concluded that neural networks can predict serum drug concentrations of gentamicin. Neural networks may be useful in predicting the clinical pharmacokinetics of drugs.

Adult↗