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J McMichael

Publications and source records attributed to J McMichael.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1996

Hepatic Retransplantation--an analysis of risk factors associated with outcome.

Hepatic retransplantation is controversial because the results are inferior to primary transplants and organs are so scarce. To determine the factors that are associated with poor outcome within the first year following retransplantation, we performed a multivariate analysis, using stepwise logistic regression, of 418 hepatic retransplantations performed at a single institution from November 1987 to December 1993. The minimum follow-up was 1 year. Seven variables were found to be independently associated with subsequent graft failure (defined as either patient death or retransplantation): donor age (odds ratio 2.2 for each 10-year increase over age 45, 95% CI 1.3 to 3.7), female donor sex (odds ratio 1.7, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.7), recipient age (odds ratio 1.6 for each 10-year increase over age 45,95% CI 1.2 to 2.8), need for preoperative mechanical ventilation (odds ratio 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.9), pretransplant serum creatinine (odds ratio 1.24 for each increase of 1 mg/dl, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.4), pretransplant total serum bilirubin (odds ratio 1.4 for each 10-mg/dl increase over 15 mg/dl, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.8), and the primary immunosuppressant, using tacrolimus as the reference category (odds ratio for cyclosporine-based immunosuppression 3.9, 95% CI 2.3 to 6.8). Although not part of the logistic regression model, the timing of retransplantation was also found to be important, with the overall probability of failure increasing from 0.58 on day 0 to a peak of 0.8 on day 38 and decreasing slowly after that. The implications of these results regarding the appropriateness of retransplantation are discussed.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Assessing risk in liver transplantation. Special reference to the significance of a positive cytotoxic crossmatch.

OBJECTIVE: The authors determined the impact of a positive cytotoxic crossmatch on the outcome of liver transplantation. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Liver allografts rarely undergo hyperacute rejection, but transplants performed across a positive cytotoxic crossmatch tend to follow a different clinical course, with higher intraoperative blood use, postoperative graft dysfunction, and, in some cases, graft loss. How this affects overall graft survival has not been determined. METHODS: The authors provide a retrospective analysis of 1520 liver transplants performed between November 1989 and December 1993, with a minimum follow-up of 1 year. All cases had a cytotoxic crossmatch using serum pretreated with dithiothreitol. RESULTS: There were 1390 negative crossmatch and 130 positive crossmatch cases. There was no difference in overall graft survival, although early survival rates were lower in the positive crossmatch group, with the maximum difference at 6 months: 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.78) for a negative crossmatch versus 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.77) for a positive crossmatch. These differences become negligible by the 2-year mark. Using stepwise logistic regression, the authors identified seven variables independently associated with outcome: 1) donor age, 2) donor gender, 3) prior liver transplant, 4) medical urgency status, 5) ischemia time, 6) indication for transplantation, and 7) primary immunosuppressant. CONCLUSIONS: The cytotoxic crossmatch is not statistically associated with overall graft survival after liver transplantation. However, early failure rates are higher in the positive crossmatch cases, a difference that disappears by the second year.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Role of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic principles in rational and cost-effective drug development.

An important goal of drug development is to define dose and concentration-response relationships for new drugs and biologics. Such critical information from controlled clinical trials can provide primary evidence of efficacy and safety and an informative database for devising dosing instructions for clinical use. This article describes applications of pharmacologic principles [pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD)] and modeling methods for drugs in which the evaluation process is guided by and/or identifies significant PK and/or PD variability in drug response. In the case of the recently registered immunosuppressive agent, tacrolimus, preclinical PK-PD in model systems can be used to rationally design safe and effective immunomodulatory dosing regimens for phase 1 clinical studies. Furthermore, a study design based on concentration control guided by a novel artificial intelligence modeling system (AIMS) can be efficiently applied to conduct randomized clinical trials in auto-immunity and to implement cost-effective therapeutic drug monitoring of tacrolimus and cyclosporine in clinical transplantation. In the case of a cardioselective beta-adrenergic blocking agent, betaxolol, marketed for essential hypertension, population PD modeling can be shown to be a more efficient method for estimating dose response compared with standard statistical tests. Using a sigmoid Emax PD model, only a fraction (40 of 300) of the randomized patients was needed to demonstrate dose response. Therefore, two methods, i.e., PD modeling of dose response and AIMS-guided dosing, can achieve significant cost benefits for drug developers, patient care, and the health care system.

Artificial Intelligence↗
PubMed1996

Computer-guided randomized concentration-controlled trials of tacrolimus in autoimmunity: multiple sclerosis and primary biliary cirrhosis.

A randomized concentration-controlled clinical trial (RCCCT) is a trial design in which patients are randomized to predefined blood drug concentrations (low, medium, high). If the concentration ranges are sufficiently separated, this study design can reveal important blood concentration-response relations. Tacrolimus is a potent yet "infant" immunosuppressant for the treatment and prevention of graft rejection and has been shown to exhibit significant clinical activity in some immune-mediated disorders. A tacrolimus artificial intelligence modeling system (AIMS) was used to guide patient dosing to achieve target concentrations specified by the study protocols. In the Multiple Sclerosis study group, we were able to define a concentration range (0.3-0.7 ng/ml) that appeared to show efficacy and minimal tacrolimus toxicity. Patients randomized to the high zone (0.6-1.2 ng/ml) in the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis study group showed significant reduction (approximately 50%) in surrogate efficacy markers [aspartate aminotransferase (SGOT), alanine aminotransferase (SGPT)] compared with patients in the low zone (0.1-0.6 ng/ml). Therefore the RCCCT allowed the detection and delineation of clinically significant concentration-response relations in an ethical and efficient manner.

Artificial Intelligence↗
PubMed1995

Weaning of immunosuppression in long-term liver transplant recipients.

Seventy-two long-surviving liver transplant recipients were evaluated prospectively, including a baseline allograft biopsy for weaning off of immunosuppression. Thirteen were removed from candidacy because of chronic rejection (n = 4), hepatitis (n = 2), patient anxiety (n = 5), or lack of cooperation by the local physician (n = 2). The other 59, aged 12-68 years, had stepwise drug weaning with weekly or biweekly monitoring of liver function tests. Their original diagnoses were PBC (n = 9), HCC (n = 1), Wilson's disease (n = 4), hepatitides (n = 15), Laennec's cirrhosis (n = 1), biliary atresia (n = 16), cystic fibrosis (n = 1), hemochromatosis (n = 1), hepatic trauma (n = 1), alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (n = 9), and secondary biliary cirrhosis (n = 1). Most of the patients had complications of long-term immunosuppression, of which the most significant were renal dysfunction (n = 8), squamous cell carcinoma (n = 2) or verruca vulgaris of skin (n = 9), osteoporosis and/or arthritis (n = 12), obesity (n = 3), hypertension (n = 11), and opportunistic infections (n = 2). When azathioprine was a third drug, it was stopped first. Otherwise, weaning began with prednisone, using the results of corticotropin stimulation testing as a guide. If adrenal insufficiency was diagnosed, patients reduced to < 5 mg/day prednisone were considered off of steroids. The baseline agents (azathioprine, cyclosporine, or FK506) were then gradually reduced in monthly decrements. Complete weaning was accomplished in 16 patients (27.1%) with 3-19 months drug-free follow-up, is progressing in 28 (47.4%), and failed in 15 (25.4%) without graft losses or demonstrable loss of graft function from the rejections. This and our previous experience with self-weaned and other patients off of immunosuppression indicate that a significant percentage of appropriately selected long-surviving liver recipients can unknowingly achieve drug-free graft acceptance. Such attempts should not be contemplated until 5-10 years posttransplantation and then only with careful case selection, close monitoring, and prompt reinstitution of immunosuppression when necessary.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1995

Clinical pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus.

Tacrolimus, a novel macrocyclic lactone with potent immunosuppressive properties, is currently available as an intravenous formulation and as a capsule for oral use, although other formulations are under investigation. Tacrolimus concentrations in biological fluids have been measured using a number of methods, which are reviewed and compared in the present article. The development of a simple, specific and sensitive assay method for measuring concentrations of tacrolimus is limited by the low absorptivity of the drug, low plasma and blood concentrations, and the presence of metabolites and other drugs which may interfere with the determination of tacrolimus concentrations. Currently, most of the pharmacokinetic data available for tacrolimus are based on an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay method, which does not distinguish tacrolimus from its metabolites. The rate of absorption of tacrolimus is variable with peak blood or plasma concentrations being reached in 0.5 to 6 hours; approximately 25% of the oral dose is bioavailable. Tacrolimus is extensively bound to red blood cells, with a mean blood to plasma ratio of about 15; albumin and alpha 1-acid glycoprotein appear to primarily bind tacrolimus in plasma. Tacrolimus is completely metabolised prior to elimination. The mean disposition half-life is 12 hours and the total body clearance based on blood concentration is approximately 0.06 L/h/kg. The elimination of tacrolimus is decreased in the presence of liver impairment and in the presence of several drugs. Various factors that contribute to the large inter- and interindividual variability in the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus are reviewed here. Because of this variability, the narrow therapeutic index of tacrolimus, and the potential for several drug interactions, monitoring of tacrolimus blood concentrations is useful for optimisation of therapy and dosage regimen design.

Drug Interactions↗
PubMed1995

Effect of donor age and sex on the outcome of liver transplantation.

We correlated donor and recipient factors with graft outcome in 436 adult patients who underwent 462 liver transplants. Donor variables analyzed were age, gender, ABO blood group, cause of death, length of stay in the intensive care unit, use of pressors or pitressin, need for cardiopulmonary resuscitation, terminal serum transaminases, and ischemia time. Recipient variables analyzed were age, gender, primary diagnosis, history of previous liver transplant, ABO blood group, cytotoxic antibody crossmatch, United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) status, and waiting time (except for the cross-match results, they were all known at the time of the operation). The endpoint of the analysis was graft failure, defined as patient death or retransplantation. Using multivariate analysis, graft failure was significantly associated with donor age, donor gender, previous liver transplantation, and UNOS 4 status of the recipient. The effect of donor age became evident only when they were older than 45 years. Livers from female donors yielded significantly poorer results, with 2-year graft survival of female to male 55% (95% CI, 45% to 67%); female to female, 64% (95% CI, 54% to 77%); male to male, 72% (95% CI, 66% to 78%); and male to female, 78% (95% CI, 70% to 88%). The only donors identified as questionable for liver procurement were old (> or = 60 years) women in whom the adverse age and gender factors were at least additive. However, rather than discard even these livers, in the face of an organ shortage crisis, their individualized use is suggested with case reporting in a special category.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Tacrolimus (FK 506), a treatment for primary sclerosing cholangitis: results of an open-label preliminary trial.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the liver that is characterized by progressive cholestasis and the development of secondary biliary cirrhosis. There is no widely recognized therapy for this disease, although anti-inflammatory agents (steroids), immunosuppressive agents (methotrexate), anti-fibrotics (colchicine), and choleretic agents (ursodeoxycholic acid) have been used in various small series. In the present study, Tacrolimus (FK 506), a new and powerful immunosuppressive macrolide antibiotic, has been used to treat 10 patients with PSC. Each subject had a liver biopsy, ERCP with visualization of the intra- and extrahepatic biliary tree, and a panel of hematological, serological, and biochemical laboratory tests before the initiation of the FK 506 therapy. The FK 506 was administered orally at 12-h intervals and was monitored by serial plasma FK 506 trough levels. After 360 days of treatment, the median serum bilirubin level was reduced by 75%, and the serum alkaline phosphatase was reduced by 70%. Moreover, the serum ALT and AST levels were reduced by 80 and 86%, respectively. No change in the serum level of BUN and creatinine levels occurred as a consequence of the FK 506 treatment. These data demonstrate that: 1) FK 506 can be used to treat PSC; 2) the response to FK 506 by patients with PSC is rapid; and, 3) no adverse effect on the serum BUN and creatinine levels was observed. It is anticipated that FK 506 will become an important agent for the treatment of patients with PSC because of its powerful immunosuppressive activity.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Tacrolimus: a potential new treatment for autoimmune chronic active hepatitis: results of an open-label preliminary trial.

Autoimmune chronic active hepatitis (CAH-A) is a chronic liver disease of unknown etiology that is believed to have an autoimmune pathogenesis. The disease is slowly progressive until hepatic failure and portal hypertension develop and either death or liver transplantation occur. Currently, the only widely recognized therapy is the administration of glucocorticoids, which have both anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive actions. Many patients cannot tolerate such therapy because of the psychiatric, osteoporotic, and weight-enhancing actions of steroids. Tacrolimus (FK 506) is a new macrolide antibiotic that has an immunosuppressive activity that is estimated to be 10-200 times greater than that of cyclosporine. Because of its greater immunosuppressive activity, we have used it in the treatment of 21 patients with autoimmune chronic active hepatitis. Before each subject was treated, a liver biopsy and a panel of hematological, serological, and biochemical parameters were assessed. The Tacrolimus was administered orally at 12-h intervals, and the dose was controlled by monitoring plasma FK trough levels. After 3 months of therapy at an oral dose of 3 mg twice a day, having achieved a median blood level of 0.5 ng/ml, the serum ALT level was reduced by 80%, and the AST level was reduced by 70%. Modest change in the white blood cell count and platelet count were noted. The median BUN level increased from a level of 12 to 18 mg/dl, and the serum creatinine increased from 0.9 to 1.3 mg/dl. These preliminary data demonstrate that: 1) Tacrolimus can be used to successfully treat CAH-A; 2) the response of CAH-A to Tacrolimus treatment is rapid and sustained; and 3) a minor increase in the serum BUN and creatinine levels occurs as a consequence of Tacrolimus treatment. It is anticipated that with continued treatment for periods of 1-2 yr, the natural history of CAH-A will be changed such that hepatic failure and the requirement for liver transplantation may be averted.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Building clinical classifiers using incomplete observations--a neural network ensemble for hepatoma detection in patients with cirrhosis.

One objective of liver transplant evaluation is to identify patients that harbor a hepatoma, but standard screening techniques are not sensitive enough. We trained neural network ensembles to predict the presence of hepatoma in patients with cirrhosis, based on information collected at the time of transplant evaluation. Network architecture and training were modified to handle missing observations. Three ensembles were trained: ensemble A using the subset with no missing observations (528 patients); ensemble B using the complete set, which included missing observations (853 patients); and ensemble C using the smaller subset, originally with complete data, but after a fixed number of observations were deleted (i.e., made "missing"). Ensemble performance on testing sets was very good. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.91, 0.89, and 0.90, for ensembles A, B, and C, respectively. Neural networks can successfully perform this classification task, and strategies can be developed that allow use of incomplete observations.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

The current status of hepatic transplantation at the University of Pittsburgh.

Tacrolimus is a more potent and satisfactory immunosuppressant than CyA for combination therapy with prednisone. In randomized trials comparing the 2 drugs, the ability of tacrolimus to rescue intractably rejecting grafts on the competing CyA arm allowed equalization of patient and graft survival on both arms when the intent-to-treat analytic methodology was applied. The ability of tacrolimus to systematically rescue the treatment failures of CyA suggested, as a matter of common sense, that it is the preferred baseline drug for hepatic transplantation. This conclusion was supported by analysis of secondary end points, including the ability to prevent rejection. Hepatic-intestinal, multivisceral and isolated intestinal transplantation became feasible on a practical basis only after the advent of tacrolimus. Nevertheless, better management strategies must be devised before intestinal transplantation, alone or with other abdominal viscera, will meet its potential. One such strategy is based on the discovery of the presence of previously unsuspected, low-level donor leukocyte chimerism in long-surviving allograft recipients. We believe that this chimerism is the essential explanation for the feasibility of organ transplantation and a link to the acquired neonatal tolerance demonstrated by Billingham, Brent and Medawar (32). The hematolymphopoietic chimerism in organ recipients explains why weaning to a drug-free state in selected long-term survivors is frequently feasible and particularly if the allograft is a liver. Weaning should never be attempted without a stepwise protocol and careful monitoring of graft function. Recognition of the natural chimerism that develops after whole organ transplantation has led to efforts to augment it with perioperative donor BM infusion. This procedure has been shown to be free of significant complications (including GVHD) in all kinds of whole organ recipients, including those given intestine. The prospects of clinical xenotransplantation must be evaluated in the same context of chimerism as that delineated for allotransplantation with the discovery of spontaneous chimerism. Before addressing chimerism-related questions in xenotransplantation, the additional barrier of the complement activation syndromes that cause hyperacute rejection will have to be surmounted. Although measures to effectively transplant xenografts have so far eluded us, the availability of the more potent drug, tacrolimus, and recognition of the seminal basis of allograft (or xenograft) acceptance via chimerism has inserted an element of reality into the largely wishful thinking that has been evident in discussions about the future of xenotransplantation.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1994

Early death or retransplantation in adults after orthotopic liver transplantation. Can outcome be predicted?

Early, reliable outcome prediction after a liver transplant would help improve organ use by minimizing unnecessary retransplantations. At the same time, early intervention in those cases destined to fail may ameliorate the high morbidity and mortality associated with retransplantation. The purpose of this study was to analyze several parameters that have been identified in the past as being associated with patient and graft outcome, and to try to develop a model that would allow us to make predictions based on data available in the early postoperative period. A total of 148 patients were followed in a prospective, observational study. Graft failure was defined as patient death or retransplantation within 3 months of surgery. Preoperative variables studied included patient demographics, need for life support, presence of ascites, serum bilirubin, serum albumin, prothrombin time, serum creatinine, and the results of the cytotoxic crossmatch. During the first 5 postoperative days, standard measurements included serum transaminases, serum bilirubin, ketone body ratio, prothrombin time, factor V, and serum lactate. Oxygen consumption was measured shortly after surgery, once the patients had rewarmed to 36 degrees C. There were 131 successful transplants (88.5%) and 17 failures (11.5%). Most of the variables studied were found to be associated with outcome (by univariate analysis) at different points in the early postoperative period. However, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the predictive ability of even the best parameter was not adequate to make decisions on individual patients. Multivariate analysis, using stepwise logistic regression, yielded a model with an overall accuracy of 92.7%. Again, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis suggested that this model did not achieve the discriminating power needed for routine clinical use. We are still not able to accurately predict outcome in the early posttransplant period. We must be very careful when evaluating parameters, or scoring systems, that are said to accomplish this. It is especially important in this era of cost containment, with its renewed pressures to guide therapy based on our perceived understanding of a patient's future clinical course.

Bilirubin↗
PubMed1994

Predicting outcomes after liver transplantation. A connectionist approach.

OBJECTIVE: The authors sought to train an artificial neural network to predict early outcomes after orthotopic liver transplantation. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Reliable prediction of outcomes early after liver transplantation would help improve organ use and could have an impact on patient survival, but remains an elusive goal. Traditional multivariate models have failed to attain the sensitivity and specificity required for practical clinical use. Alternate approaches that can help us model clinical phenomena must be explored. One such approach is the use of artificial neural networks, or connectionist models. These are computation systems that process information in parallel, using large numbers of simple units, and excel in tasks involving pattern recognition. They are capable of adaptive learning and self-organization, and exhibit a high degree of fault tolerance. METHODS: Ten feed-forward, back-propagation neural networks were trained to predict graft outcomes, using data from 155 adult liver transplants. The data included information that was available by the second postoperative day. Ten separate training and testing data subsets were prepared, using random sampling, and the ability of the different networks to predict outcomes successfully was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: Four of the networks showed perfect discrimination, with an area under the ROC curve (Az) of 1.0. Two other networks also had excellent performance, with an Az of 0.95. The sensitivity and specificity of the combined networks was 60% and 100%, respectively, when using an output neuron activation of 0.6 as the cutoff point to decide class membership. Lowering the cutoff point to 0.14 increased the sensitivity to 77%, and lowered the specificity to 96%. CONCLUSIONS: These results are encouraging, especially when compared to the performance of more traditional multivariate models on the same data set. The robustness of neural networks, when confronted with noisy data generated by nonlinear processes, and their freedom from a priori assumptions regarding the data, make them promising tools with which to develop predictive clinical models.

Adult↗
PubMed1993

An intelligent and cost-effective computer dosing system for individualizing FK506 therapy in transplantation and autoimmune disorders.

The accuracy and precision of an intelligent dosing system (IDS) for FK506 in predicting doses to achieve target drug levels has been prospectively evaluated in transplant and autoimmune patients. For dose individualization, the knowledge base is updated with patient-specific feedback including the current dose, drug level, and the new target level. The study population of 147 patients consisted of 97 transplant patients (liver and kidney) and 50 patients with autoimmune disorders. Patients in the transplant study group were entered sequentially and followed as a cohort. Patients in the autoimmune study group were randomly assigned to one of three predefined FK506 concentration windows (low, 0.1-.3; medium, 0.4-.7; and high, 0.8-1.3 ng/mL) as part of a concentration controlled clinical trial. Predictions of steady-state plasma drug levels were made throughout the clinical course of autoimmune patients and during the first 6 weeks post-transplant in liver and kidney recipients. FK506 concentration in plasma was measured by a monoclonal antibody based ELISA assay. Accuracy was computed as the mean prediction error (mpe). Precision was computed as the root mean squared prediction error (rmspe). The accuracy of the IDS in each study group was as follows: 0.016 ng/mL (liver), -0.034 ng/mL (kidney), and -0.022 ng/mL (autoimmune). Because the 95% confidence interval included zero in each case, the IDS showed no bias. The precision of the IDS in each study group was as follows: 0.133 ng mL (liver), 0.1903 ng/mL (kidney), and 0.1188 ng/mL (autoimmune). These results indicate that the FK506 IDS is both accurate and very precise (reproducible) in transplant and autoimmune patients.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adult↗
PubMed1993

Computer-guided concentration-controlled trials in autoimmune disorders.

A randomized concentration-controlled clinical trial (RCCCT) is an alternate experimental design to the standard dose-controlled study. In a RCCCT, patients are randomly assigned to predefined plasma or blood drug concentration ranges (low, medium, and high). With the caveat that concentration ranges are sufficiently separated, this design should enhance the ability to discover important concentration response relationships. FK-506, a potent and promising immunosuppressive agent for prevention and treatment of graft rejection, has shown significant clinical activity in some immune-mediated disorders. To implement the RCCCT design, a novel FK-506 intelligent dosing system (IDS) was used to guide all doses to prospectively achieve the target concentration range specific in the study protocol. Patients enrolled in these trials suffered from a variety of autoimmune disorders, including multiple sclerosis, primary biliary cirrhosis, psoriasis, autoimmune chronic active hepatitis, and nephrotic syndrome. We observed excellent predictive performance of the IDS for all patients. The accuracy (mean prediction error) of the IDS was -0.022 ng/ml and the precision (standard deviation of the prediction error) was 0.119 ng/ml. Thus, the IDS is both accurate and reproducible for autoimmune patients. We conclude that the RCCCT design, guided by an accurate and precise IDS, is an informative and cost-effective approach for evaluation of efficacy and safety of effective but highly toxic agents.

Autoimmune Diseases↗