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J Omumbo

Publications and source records attributed to J Omumbo.

8 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2001

An empirical malaria distribution map for West Africa.

The objective of this study was to produce a malaria distribution map that would constitute a useful tool for development and health planners in West Africa. The recently created continental database of malaria survey results (MARA/ARMA 1998) provides the opportunity for producing empirical models and maps of malaria distribution at a regional and eventually at a continental level. This paper reports on the mapping of malaria distribution for sub-Saharan West Africa based on these data. The strategy was to undertake a spatial statistical analysis of malaria parasite prevalence in relation to those potential bio-physical environmental factors involved in the distribution of malaria transmission intensity which are readily available at any map location. The resulting model was then used to predict parasite prevalence for the whole of West Africa. We also produced estimates of the proportion of population of each country in the region exposed to various categories of risk to show the impact that malaria is having on individual countries. The data represent a very large sample of children in West Africa. It constitutes a first attempt to produce a malaria risk map of the West African region, based entirely on malariometric data. We anticipate that it will provide useful additional guidance to control programme managers, and that it can be refined once sufficient additional data become available.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2000

Using evidence to change antimalarial drug policy in Kenya.

Chloroquine resistance was first detected in Kenya in 1978 and escalated during the 1980s. Chloroquine remained the treatment of choice for uncomplicated malaria infections until revised guidelines were launched in 1998 despite a plethora of scientific evidence on failure. This review analyses the range and quality of the evidence base that was used to change the drug policy in Kenya from chloroquine to SP and examines the process of consensus building and decision making. Our review illustrates the difficulties in translating sensitivity data with gross geographical, temporal and methodological variations into national treatment policy. The process was complicated by limited options, unknown adverse effects of replacement therapies, cost, as well as limited guidance on factors pertinent to changing the drug policy for malaria. Although > 50% of the studies showed parasitological failures by 1995, there was a general lack of consensus on the principles for assessing drug failures, the inclusion criteria for the study subjects and the relative benefits of parasitological and clinical assessments. A change in international recommendations for assessment of drug efficacy in 1996 from parasitological to clinical response further perplexed the decisions. There is an urgent need for international standards and evidence-based guidelines to provide a framework to assist the process by which decision-makers in malaria-endemic countries can make rational choices for antimalarial drug policy change.

Antimalarials↗
PubMed1998

Mapping malaria transmission intensity using geographical information systems (GIS): an example from Kenya.

That there are so few examples of the use of epidemiological maps in malaria control may be explained by the lack of suitable, spatially defined data and of an understanding of how epidemiological variables relate to disease outcome. However, recent evidence suggests that the clinical outcomes of infection are determined by the intensity of parasite exposure, and developments in geographical information systems (GIS) provide new ways to represent epidemiological data spatially. In the present study, parasitological data from 682 cross-sectional surveys conducted in Kenya were abstracted and spatially defined. Risks of infection with Plasmodium falciparum among Kenyan children, estimated from combinations of parasitological, geographical, demographic and climatic data in a GIS platform, appear to be low for 2.9 million, stable but low for another 1.3 million, moderate for 3.0 million and high for 0.8 million. (Estimates were not available for 1.4 million children.) Whilst the parasitological data were obtained from a variety of sources across different age-groups and times, these markers of endemicity remained relatively stable within the broad definitions of high, moderate and low transmission intensity. Models relating ecological and climatic features to malaria intensity and improvements in our understanding of the relationships between parasite exposure and disease outcome will hopefully provide a more rational basis for malaria control in the near future.

Climate↗
PubMed1997

The effects of malaria control on nutritional status in infancy.

Both malaria and undernutrition are major causes of paediatric mortality and morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa. The introduction of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITBN) during a randomized controlled trial on the Kenyan coast significantly reduced severe, life-threatening malaria and all-cause childhood mortality. This paper describes the effects of the intervention upon the nutritional status of infants aged between 1 and 11 months of age. Seven hundred and eighty seven infants who slept under ITBN and 692 contemporaneous control infants, were seen during one of three cross-sectional surveys conducted during a one year period. Standardized weight-for-age and mid-upper arm circumference measures were significantly higher among infants who used ITBN compared with control infants. Whether these improvements in markers of nutritional status were a direct result of concomitant reductions in clinical malaria episodes remains uncertain. Never-the-less evidence suggests that even moderate increases in weight-for-age scores can significantly reduce the probability of mortality in childhood and ITBN may provide additional gains to child survival beyond their impressive effects upon malaria-specific events.

Bedding and Linens↗
PubMed1996

Infant parasite rates and immunoglobulin M seroprevalence as a measure of exposure to Plasmodium falciparum during a randomized controlled trial of insecticide-treated bed nets on the Kenyan coast.

Repeated cross-sectional surveys among infants sleeping under insecticide-treated bed nets (ITBN) and contemporary control infants were used to estimate changes in Plasmodium falciparum exposure due to ITBN use on the Kenyan coast. Presence of P. falciparum parasites or total P. falciparum Immunoglobulin M (IgM) seropositivity were used independently and in combination in a constant risk catalytic conversion model to estimate the force of infection in ITBN and control communities. Such studies during infancy avoid problems of early saturation of prevalence due to high forces of infection and persistence of infection, minimize problems of self-treatment, and can be conducted among large populations covering a wide geographic area. These contrast previous parasitologic studies of ITBN among older children and the traditional entomologic studies of transmission that are logistically demanding. Our investigations demonstrated that parasite prevalence, IgM seropositivity, and the force of transmission were all significantly reduced by 50%. In addition, more infants under ITBN entered their second year of life without previous exposure to P. falciparum than control infants. These effects upon delayed acquisition of effective immunity require careful monitoring during future vector control programs using ITBN.

Age Factors↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Evidence for a mass community effect of insecticide-treated bednets on the incidence of malaria on the Kenyan coast.

The use of insecticide-treated bednets (ITBNs) has been shown to be effective in reducing mortality and morbidity from malaria. However, there is mixed evidence as to whether or not community-wide use of ITBNs engenders a 'mass effect', such that those not sleeping under bednets are offered protection from widespread ITBN use in the area in which they live. We have analysed data collected in Kilifi, Kenya, from a cohort of children followed from birth to investigate how the degree of net usage in the locality of a child affects the risk of developing malaria. This effect was explored using a Cox proportional hazards model. For those not using ITBNs, we found that an increasing level of ITBN usage within the area surrounding each child was associated with a decreasing risk of developing malaria, thus providing evidence in support of a mass community effect. The size and significance of this effect were found to decrease as non-overlapping areas of increasing distance away from a child's home were considered. The effect was significant for areas at distances of up to 1.5 km away from each child.

Bedding and Linens↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Models to predict the intensity of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: applications to the burden of disease in Kenya.

There is an increasing need to provide spatial distribution maps of the clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa. Recent evidence suggests that risk groups and the clinical spectrum of severe malaria are related to the intensity of P. falciparum transmission. Climate operates to affect the vectorial capacity of P. falciparum transmission and this is particularly important in the Horn of Africa and parts of East Africa. We have used a fuzzy logic climate suitability model to define areas of Kenya unsuitable for stable transmission. Kenya's unstable transmission areas can be divided into areas where transmission potential is limited by low rainfall or low temperature and, combined, encompass over 8 million people. Among areas of stable transmission we have used empirical data on P. falciparum infection rates among 124 childhood populations in Kenya to develop a climate-based statistical model of transmission intensity. This model correctly identified 75% (95% confidence interval CI 70-85) of 3 endemicity classes (low, < 20%; high, > or = 70%; and intermediate parasite prevalences). The model was applied to meteorological and remote sensed data using a geographical information system to provide estimates of endemicity for all of the 1080 populated fourth level administrative regions in Kenya. National census data for 1989 on the childhood populations within each administrative region were projected to provide 1997 estimates. Endemicity-specific estimates of morbidity and mortality were derived from published and unpublished sources and applied to their corresponding exposed-to-risk childhood populations. This combined transmission, population and disease-risk model suggested that every day in Kenya approximately 72 and 400 children below the age of 5 years either die or develop clinical malaria warranting in-patient care, respectively. Despite several limitations, such an approach goes beyond 'best guesses' to provide informed estimates of the geographical burden of malaria and its fatal consequences in Kenya.

Child, Preschool↗