Factors affecting survival of hemodialysis patients utilizing urea kinetic modeling. A critical appraisal of shortening dialysis times.
The objective of this study was to analyze risk factors affecting mortality rates (MR) in hemodialysis patients undergoing shortened dialysis time who were regularly kinetically modeled. Over a 14-month period, 180 in-center hemodialysis patients, 54% male, 46% female, 57% Black, 39% Caucasian, and 4% Hispanic, treated with rapid high efficiency dialysis (RHED = 2-3 h, 3 times/week) and conventional dialysis (3-4 h, 3 times/week) were studied. Median patient age was 56.7 years (16-84 years) and dialysis care ranged from 6 months to 18 years (mean +/- SD = 4.0 +/- 4.2 years). The patients underwent monthly urea kinetic modeling. The dialysis prescription was based upon normalizing Kt/V between 0.8 and 1.2 and the protein catabolic rate (PCRn) between 0.9 and 1.1. Thirty-three percent of the patients received recombinant human erythropoietin (r-HuEPO). The effects of various covariates, including primary diagnosis, post/predialysis BUN ratios, creatinine, albumin, calcium, phosphate, cholesterol, hemoglobin, r-HuEPO, Kt/V, and PCRn were analyzed using analysis of variance, chi 2 and linear discriminant function (DF) statistical methods. Several significant factors emerged as influencing outcome. The DF analysis produced a highly statistically significant (p < 0.0001) model to predict mortality based upon certain laboratory and dialysis parameters. Further, the linear DF correctly predicted mortality rate in 86% of cases. The results of the analysis revealed an overall mortality rate of 15.6%; hospitalization rates (HR) were 1.4 +/- 1.8 times/year. Length of dialysis time, i.e., dialysis times between 2 and 4 h, when adjusted for Kt/V has no correlation with MR or HR. Variables associated with survival were higher post/predialysis BUN ratios, normal Kt/V (0.8-1.2), normal albumin levels (> 3.5 g/dl), higher postdialysis BUN, creatinine, and cholesterol levels, and use of r-HuEPO. The use of r-HuEPO when analyzed by DF significantly improved MR, 8.3% as opposed to 19.2%. It is concluded that urea kinetic modeling permits shortening dialysis times without affecting mortality or hospitalization rates, and that low postdialysis BUN, post/predialysis BUN ratios, creatinine, and albumin values are correlated with a lower chance of survival.