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J S Buckleton

Publications and source records attributed to J S Buckleton.

23 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

An extended likelihood ratio framework for interpreting evidence.

This paper reviews some current methods, the likelihood ratio-based approach and the full Bayesian approach for the interpretation of evidence and discusses previously identified shortcomings in them. It suggests an approach based on a compromise--based on an extended likelihood ratio--that may combine the merits of logic without overstepping acceptable bounds for the forensic scientist in the presentation of evidence. The approach is exposed formally and takes advantage of inferential networks called Bayesian networks.

Criminology↗

New Zealand population data at five VNTR loci: validation as databases for forensic identity testing.

Databases were developed for three New Zealand ethnic groups (Caucasian, Maori and Polynesian), at five VNTR loci (D1S7, D2S44, D4S139, D5S110 and D12S11), and validated for interpretation of forensic identity tests. A +/-2.8% sliding window was used to define the alleles at each locus and allelic frequency distributions were obtained for each locus. The conservative nature of the sliding window approach for forensic casework was demonstrated. Tests for independence of alleles within and between loci showed good agreement with the expectation of independence. Although Polynesians are known to have reduced genetic diversity at some VNTR loci, this was found not to be a concern for the present methodology. Procedures for the analysis and reporting of DNA profile results used by New Zealand forensic scientists are therefore appropriate.

Alleles↗

Assessing transfer probabilities in a Bayesian interpretation of forensic glass evidence.

When someone breaks glass a number of tiny fragments may be transferred to that person. If the glass is broken in the commission of a crime then these fragments may be used as evidence. A Bayesian interpretation of this evidence relies on the forensic scientist's ability to assess the probability of transfer. This paper examines the problem of assessing this probability and suggests some solutions.

Bayes Theorem↗

Setting bounds for the likelihood ratio when multiple hypotheses are postulated.

The interpretation of mixtures of DNA in the forensic context presents particular challenges. The only logical means available for dealing with them is through Bayesian inference, which leads to the formulation, in most cases, of a likelihood ratio which weighs the evidence in favour of two competing hypotheses. However, situations can arise in which additional hypotheses are proposed and the authors discuss one such situation--that where the number of contributors to the mixture is in dispute. A way of dealing with the problem is presented.

Body Fluids↗

Applications and extensions of subpopulation theory: a caseworkers guide.

This paper extends the calculation of conditional probabilities from those given by Balding and Nichols to casework situations where a series of possible DNA types are possible. Such situations may occur when a sample is identified containing a mixture of DNA from two or more people or where extra information can be determined about the subpopulation under consideration by analysis of additional samples. Using this approach, the error in the estimated likelihood ratios is expected to reduce as the number of additional individuals typed from the subpopulation increases.

Forensic Medicine↗