Hospital measures for prevention of tuberculosis transmission in U.S. cities with and without previous nosocomial tuberculosis outbreaks.
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Publications and source records attributed to J S Chmiel.
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OBJECTIVE: To determine whether ejaculate exposure through anoreceptive intercourse is associated with rapid CD4 cell loss. DESIGN: Self-reported behavioral, demographic data and blood samples were gathered longitudinally at ten semiannual visits from individuals participating in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS). PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: A group of 937 HIV-seropositive men who were continuously followed for four to ten semiannual visits. OUTCOME MEASURES: A loss of 10% or more in CD4 cells between the first two of any three consecutive semiannual visits that was followed by a 10% or greater loss between the second and third visits. RESULTS: A period of rapid CD4 cell loss over three semiannual visits occurred in 389 of the 937 (42%) HIV-seropositive men studied. Men who reported one or more anoreceptive intercourse partners with whom they were exposed to ejaculate (RAI-E) during the 12 months immediately preceding their visits were more than twice as likely to show this rapid CD4 cell loss compared with men with no such partners. CONCLUSIONS: The association between RAI-E partnerships and rapid CD4 cell loss suggests factors associated with ejaculate exposure (e.g., sexually transmitted diseases) may hasten the clinical progression of HIV disease. It is suggested that infectious diseases, which are known to be associated with ejaculate exposure, may be the causal factor underlying the association between RAI-E partnerships and rapid CD4 cell loss in these men, although the presence of these diseases was not ascertained in these data. HIV-infected individuals should be cautioned against unprotected anoreceptive intercourse.
A homozygous 32-bp deletion in the gene encoding CCR5, a major coreceptor for HIV-1, leads to resistance to infection with HIV-1, and heterozygosity for the deletion is associated with delayed disease progression in persons infected with HIV-1. We investigated the effect of CCR5 heterozygosity on disease progression as measured by both CD4+ T-cell count decline and the occurrence of clinical AIDS symptoms. Using a unified statistical model for CD4 count progression and AIDS development, we examined whether the effect of CCR5 heterozygosity on clinical AIDS is direct or indirect through its effect on CD4 counts. Based on data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, we noted a protective effect of CCR5 heterozygosity on both CD4 cell count progression and on AIDS occurrence. Furthermore, we found that this protective effect on the occurrence of AIDS was completely mediated through an effect on the CD4 marker. Additional adjustment for the effect of an initial viral load measurement indicate that CCR5 heterozygosity did not have predictive value for either CD4 progression or the development of AIDS beyond its association with early viral load.
To examine the effect of HIV status, symptomatology and CD4+ lymphocyte level on health-related quality of life, the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) was administered to 2,295 gay men enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) in 1994. Distinct physical and mental health factors of the SF-36 were found. Seropositive asymptomatic individuals and seropositive individuals with CD4+ lymphocytes > or = 500/mm3 scored as well as seronegative participants on all of the mental health domain scales, but lower on the general health perceptions and physical health composite score. Seropositive individuals with at least one symptom or with CD4+ lymphocytes below 200/mm3 scored significantly lower on all of the SF-36 scales and summary scores than seronegative controls. The SF-36 was found to exhibit similar mental and physical health factors for an adult gay male population to that previously seen in general population samples and in patient groups with other diseases. In conclusion, HIV-positive men who are asymptomatic or have CD4+ lymphocytes above 500/mm3 have similar perceived mental health but worse perceived physical health than seronegative men. HIV-positive men who are symptomatic or have CD4+ lymphocytes below 200/mm3 have worse perceived mental and physical health than seronegative men.
A common severe complication of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has been Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP). Recently, with increasing use of PCP prophylaxis and multidrug antiretroviral therapy, the clinical manifestations of HIV infection have changed dramatically and the predictors of inpatient mortality for PCP may have also changed. We developed a new staging system for predicting inpatient mortality for patients with HIV-associated PCP admitted between 1995 and 1997. Trained abstractors performed chart reviews of 1,660 patients hospitalized with HIV-associated PCP between 1995 and 1997 at 78 hospitals in seven metropolitan areas in the United States. The overall inpatient mortality rate was 11.3%. Hierarchically optimal classification tree analysis identified an ordered five-category staging system based on three predictors: wasting, alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient (AaPO(2)), and serum albumin level. The mortality rate increased with stage: 3.7% for Stage 1, 8.5% for Stage 2, 16.1% for Stage 3, 23.3% for Stage 4, and 49.1% for Stage 5. This new staging system may be useful for severity of illness adjustment in the current era while exploring current variation in HIV-associated PCP inpatient mortality rates among hospitals and across cities.
BACKGROUND: Despite awareness of HIV-related tuberculosis (TB), nosocomial outbreaks of multidrug-resistant TB among HIV-infected individuals occur. OBJECTIVE: To investigate delays in TB isolation and suspicion among HIV-infected inpatients discharged with TB or Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP), common HIV-related pneumonias. DESIGN: Cohort study during 1995 to 1997. SETTING: For PCP, 1,227 persons who received care at 44 New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles hospitals. For TB, 89 patients who received care at five Chicago hospitals. MEASUREMENTS: Two-day rates of TB isolation/suspicion. RESULTS: For HIV-related PCP, Los Angeles hospitals had the lowest 2-day rates of isolation/suspicion of TB (24.3%/26.6% vs 65.5%/66.4% for New York City and 62.8%/58.3% for Chicago, respectively; p < 0.001 for overall comparison by chi(2) test for each outcome measure). Within cities, hospital isolation/suspicion rates varied from < 35 to > 70% (p < 0.001 for interhospital comparisons in each city). The Chicago hospital with a nosocomial outbreak of multidrug-resistant TB from 1994 to 1995 isolated 60% of HIV-infected individuals who were discharged with a diagnosis of HIV-related TB and 52% discharged with HIV-related PCP, rates that were among the lowest of all Chicago hospitals in both data sets. CONCLUSION: Low 2-day rates of TB isolation/suspicion among HIV-related PCP patients were frequent. One Chicago hospital with low 2-day rates of TB isolation/suspicion among persons with HIV-related PCP also had low 2-day rates of isolation/suspicion among confirmed TB patients. That hospital experienced a nosocomial multidrug-resistant TB outbreak. Educational efforts on the benefits of early TB suspicion/isolation among HIV-infected pneumonia patients are needed.
Effective HIV-1 therapies may directly or indirectly impact the development of AIDS-associated malignancies. Using data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, a longitudinal cohort study of the natural history of HIV-1 infection among homosexual men, the incidence rates of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) over calendar time were determined for the 1813 HIV-1-seropositive men enrolled in 1984 through 1985. Poisson regression models were used to identify statistically significant temporal trends. Nested case control studies were used to assess whether recent cases of these malignancies represented treatment breakthroughs. The incidence of KS as a presenting AIDS illness significantly (p = .003) declined from 25.6 cases per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 21.8-29.9) in the early 1990s to an average incidence of 7.5 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 3.4-16.7) in 1996 through 1997. In contrast, the incidence of NHL has continued to increase significantly (p < .001) at a rate of 21% per year since 1985, although a possible recent decrease is suggested. None of the recent KS cases and only 1 of 8 NHL cases had used the potent antiretroviral therapies, compared with >70 percent of the HIV-1-seropositive men who were free of malignancies and observed over the same time period. These results may be due to an indirect protection against developing KS by the boosting of the immune system by antiretroviral therapies. However, it is important to clarify the direct therapeutic effect on the pathogenic disease mechanism of human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV-8), the agent postulated to be important in the causal pathway of KS. The absence of a similar effect on NHL may be due to a lack of effect on its pathogenesis or because potent antiretroviral therapies need to be administered early in the disease process and the cases that have occurred represent outcomes following a long latency period. With additional follow-up, an impact on NHL may yet be observed.
Longitudinal studies of health effects often relate individuals' biomarker levels to disease progression. Repeated measurements also provide an opportunity to assess within-individual biomarker variability, and it is reasonable to postulate that this measure might provide additional information about a particular outcome variable. Given the existing precedent for application of adjustment methods to account for measurement error in subject-specific average levels of a covariate, this concept motivates the application of such methods to incorporate variability as well. In this paper, we investigate the nature of the relationship between the decline of CD4 cell count induced by infection with human immunodeficiency virus, and CD4 level and variability prior to infection. We first describe the distribution of repeated CD4 measurements prior to infection using a model that accounts both for random average levels and random subject-specific variance components. Based on this model, we define true unobservable random variables that correspond to prior level and stability. We perform a linear regression analysis, using these latent variables as covariates, by means of a full maximum likelihood approach. We compare the resulting parameter estimates with those based on regressions employing sample-based estimates of pre-infection levels and variances, and empirical Bayes estimates of these quantities. Although the final inferences are similar to those based on the unadjusted analysis, we find that the magnitude of association with prior level decreases, while that with prior stability increases. Stratified analyses indicate that smoking status affects the relationship between prior CD4 level and initial CD4 decline. We point out advantages associated with the maximum likelihood approach in this particular application.
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether race is associated with health insurance coverage and health service use among gay and bisexual men in the Baltimore center of the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. METHODS: Data from eight semiannual study visits between 1991 and 1996 were used. Descriptive, stratified, and logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine whether race is associated with insurance coverage, medical, or dental service use, after controlling for socioeconomic variables. RESULTS: No difference was found between blacks' and whites' likelihood of having health insurance, private insurance, using inpatient, emergency department services, or antiretroviral medications. Whites were more likely to use outpatient services, particularly if CD4 cell counts were high, and were more likely to use dental services, although blacks were more likely to have dental insurance. CONCLUSIONS: Further research must be conducted to examine cultural, social, and psychological factors that help explain why white gay men use more outpatient and dental services, when other service use is unrelated to race. Investigators should be precise when using race as a variable in health services and epidemiologic research, emphasizing when racial differences truly exist versus when the variable race is a surrogate for another factor.
Studies of circulating T (CD3(+)) lymphocytes have shown that on a population basis T-cell numbers remain stable for many years after HIV-1 infection (blind T-cell homeostasis), but decline rapidly beginning approximately 1.5-2.5 years before the onset of clinical AIDS. We derived a general method for defining the loss of homeostasis on the individual level and for determining the prevalence of homeostasis loss according to HIV status and the occurrence of AIDS in more than 5,000 men enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. We used a segmented regression model for log10 CD3(+) cell counts that included separate T-cell trajectories before and after a time (the T-cell inflection point) where the loss of T-cell homeostasis was most likely to have occurred. The average slope of CD3(+) lymphocyte counts before the inflection point was close to zero for HIV- and HIV+ men, consistent with blind T-cell homeostasis. After the inflection point, the HIV+ individuals who developed AIDS generally showed a dramatic decline in CD3(+) cell counts relative to HIV- men and HIV+ men not developing AIDS. A CD3(+) cell decline of greater than 10 percent per year was present in 77% of HIV+ men developing AIDS but in only 23% of HIV+ men with no onset of AIDS. Our findings at the individual level support the blind T-cell homeostasis hypothesis and provide strong evidence that the loss of homeostasis is an important mechanism in the pathogenesis of the severe immunodeficiency that characterizes the late stages of HIV infection.
The second AIDS-defining condition diagnosed chronologically is referred to in this report as the secondary AIDS diagnosis. In this study, we examined survival following a secondary AIDS diagnosis using demographic and clinical factors known within 1 year before secondary AIDS diagnosis. In a prospective cohort of 2412 HIV-seropositive homosexual men observed in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS), 609 presented with a secondary AIDS diagnosis between January 1, 1988 and March 31, 1995. To analyze the data, we used survival analysis methods including the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator and extended Cox models that allow for nonproportional hazards. The median survival time after a secondary diagnosis was 10.3 months. Rapidity of progression from an initial AIDS diagnosis to a secondary diagnosis was not associated with survival. Drug treatment did not show a beneficial effect because of confounding by indication (i.e., selection bias) and limited efficacy on advanced disease of treatments available prior to 1995. However, a beneficial effect was captured by the use of calendar periods as a proxy measure for the relative exposure to drug treatments. Later calendar year of secondary diagnosis, secondary Kaposi's sarcoma, and higher CD4+ cell count were found to be significantly (p < .05) associated with longer survival time. However, secondary AIDS diagnosis was a significant factor only in the short term. Using secondary Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia as the reference diagnosis, the relative hazard of death 3 months after the time of secondary Kaposi's sarcoma diagnosis was 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.36-0.89) whereas the relative hazard after concurrently diagnosed multiple secondary illnesses was 2.06 (95% CI = 1.26-3.38). After approximately 1 year from the secondary diagnosis, the type of diagnosis was no longer significantly associated with survival.
Researchers commonly express scepticism about using observational data to estimate the effect of a treatment on an outcome the treatment is intended to affect. In this paper, we consider using data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) to determine whether zidovudine prevents the development of Kaposi's sarcoma among HIV-positive gay men. Several methodologic issues common to observational data characterized the study: information on potentially important confounders was missing at some study visits; investigators did not always know the time of changes in treatment level, nor the value of confounders at that time, and the censoring process depended strongly on time-varying covariates related to outcome. We describe application to our data of Robins' paradigm for defining, modelling and estimating the effect of a time-varying treatment and show how to modify his approach to deal with the methodologic issues we have mentioned. Further, we demonstrate that relative risk regression is less well equipped to deal with these issues. We compare our results to the findings from randomized trials, and conclude that observational studies may sometimes be useful in evaluating the effect of treatment on an intended outcome.
OBJECT: Embolization of intracranial aneurysms by using Guglielmi detachable coils (GDCs) is proving to be a safe method of protecting aneurysms from rupture. Occasionally, patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms present with symptoms related to the aneurysm's mass effect on either the brain parenchyma or cranial nerves. In the present study, the authors conducted a retrospective review to evaluate the response to GDC embolization in a series of 19 patients presenting with cranial nerve dysfunction due to mass effect. METHODS: Aneurysms were classified by size, shape, wall calcification, and amount of intraluminal thrombus. Patients were classified by duration of symptoms prior to GDC treatment (range < 1 month to > 10 years). Clinical assessment was performed within days of the GDC procedure and at later follow-up appointments (range 1-70 months, mean 24 months). In the immediate post-GDC period, four patients experienced worsening of cranial nerve deficits. Two of the four patients had transient worsening of visual acuity, which later improved to better than baseline status. Another patient who had presented with headache and seventh and eighth cranial nerve deficits from a vertebrobasilar junction aneurysm had improvement in these symptoms, but developed a new diplopia. The fourth patient had worsening of her visual acuity, which had not resolved at the 1-month follow-up examination; this patient later underwent surgical decompression. CONCLUSIONS: On late follow-up review, the response was classified as complete resolution of symptoms in six patients (32%), improvement in eight patients (42%), no significant change in four patients (21%), and symptom worsening in one patient (5%). Patients with smaller aneurysms and those with shorter pretreatment duration of symptoms were more likely to experience an improvement in their symptoms following GDC treatment, although statistical significance was not reached in this series (p=0.603 and p=0.111, respectively). The presence of aneurysmal wall calcification (six patients) or intraluminal thrombus (12 patients) showed no correlation with the response of mass effect symptoms in these patients.
PURPOSE: Identification of metastatic disease progression is often difficult but important. Previous studies of quality of life in metastatic disease have been limited by the small number of respondents who were not white or of lower socioeconomic status. Quality of life assessment is generally done using self-administration techniques but this method is of limited usefulness for patients of low socioeconomic status, many of whom have limited reading abilities. We evaluated the feasibility and validity of interviewer administration of 3 quality of life instruments for patients of low socioeconomic status with metastatic prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used instruments previously validated with self-administration methodology, including the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer-Quality of Life Questionnaire-30, Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General Scale and Quality of Life Index. Subjects were men with metastatic prostate cancer with stable (78) or progressive (32) disease at 4 Veterans Affairs medical centers and 1 other site. Of the patients 94% were Veterans Affairs patients and more than 60% were black. RESULTS: Each quality of life instrument required less than 10 minutes of interviewer administration and was able to discriminate between patients with stable versus progressive disease on several health status domains. CONCLUSIONS: These data support the feasibility and validity of quality of life measurement in patients of low socioeconomic status with metastatic prostate cancer. Consideration should be given to adding quality of life instruments to patient encounter even among low socioeconomic status, low literacy populations.
PURPOSE: Extracapsular extension of prostate cancer occurs in a significant number of men believed to have clinically localized disease. We report the ability of the reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay to predict preoperatively the pathological stage of cases of clinically localized prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Since October 1994, 82 consecutive men with clinically localized prostate cancer had a venous blood RT-PCR assessment before radical retropubic prostatectomy. The extracted ribonucleic acid was reverse transcribed, amplified and the amplicon identity confirmed by prostate specific antigen (PSA) directed probe hybridization. An additional 31 patients were enrolled to provide appropriate positive (T + Nx/1M2) and negative (human female and benign prostatic hyperplasia) controls. Histological examination of the entire prostatectomy specimen was performed. RESULTS: Positive RT-PCR assay results correlated significantly with skeletal metastases and elevated levels of serum PSA but they did not significantly improve our ability to identify prospectively patients with extracapsular extension over traditional predictors (serum PSA, Gleason score). CONCLUSIONS: The role of molecular techniques in prostate cancer evaluation and prognosis continues to emerge. However, in our study we demonstrate no significant advantage in preoperative staging of prostate cancer using RT-PCR assay with PSA primers.
Despite much investigation of zidovudine, little has been reported regarding its effect on the development of most individual AIDS-defining illnesses, including Kaposi's sarcoma (KS). We used observational data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) to estimate the effect of zidovudine use on the subsequent incidence of KS. To do this, we examined and adjusted for predictors of zidovudine use. CD4 lymphocyte counts, the development of HIV-related symptoms and AIDS, and changes in these factors were important predictors of zidovudine use. We used these associations to control for confounding by these and other factors with the G-estimation approach. We found no evidence that zidovudine use affected the time to KS in the MACS; the point estimate (95% confidence interval [CI]) for increase in time to KS was zero (-28%-68%). The relative risk was 1.0 (95% CI, 0.54-1.84). Randomized trials suggest that zidovudine may prevent KS. We discuss possible explanations for differences between results.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the dependence of the hazard of symptomatic AIDS on various markers using a non-parametric method. The markers we consider are measures of time (time since infection and calendar date), measures of immune function (numbers and percentage of CD4 T cells) and serological activation markers (neopterin and beta 2-microglobulin). METHODS: We adapted a non-parametric statistical method to estimate the hazard of AIDS. We considered both univariate analyses, in which each marker was considered separately and bivariate analyses of pairs of markers. CONCLUSIONS: Using data from 356 seroconverters from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, we found that in the univariate analyses the hazard of AIDS is dependent on all markers, with the strongest dependence for CD4 count and CD4 percentage. In the bivariate analyses we found that the time since infection is of little importance in determining the hazard of AIDS if the CD4 count or percentage are known, and is of minor additional value if one of the serological markers is known. In contrast, we found that both beta 2-microglobulin and neopterin do add some additional information to the hazard of AIDS if CD4 count or CD4 percentage are known.
Higher white blood cell counts in smokers compared with nonsmokers have been well documented, but the longitudinal relation between changes in smoking and changes in white blood cells has not been well described. Since 1984, data have been collected semiannually by the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS), a four-center prospective cohort study of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in homosexual men. The study population includes 2,435 participants who were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seronegative as of September 1994 and who contributed 20,918 person-visits for this analysis. For individuals who modified their smoking behavior, changes in white blood cell counts occurred primarily during the first 6 months following changes in the amount of cigarettes smoked. Among former smokers who resumed smoking, the extent of the increase in white blood cell count depended on the number of cigarettes smoked. Specifically, increases of 241, 340, and 740 cells/microliter were observed for smokers who resumed smoking < 1, 1 to < 2, and > or = 2 packs/day, respectively. Conversely, smokers who quit smoking had a decrease of white blood cell count: -32, -629, and -1,122 cells/microliter for men who previously smoked < 1, 1 to < 2, and > or = 2 packs/day, respectively. Long-term ex-smokers, however, still had higher white blood cell counts than did never smokers. There was a high within-individual correlation of white blood cell count in persons who reported a consistent level of smoking (i.e., average correlations between two white blood cell counts 6 years apart were 0.51 for never smokers, 0.48 for ex-smokers, 0.56 for men who smoked < 1 pack/day, and 0.43 for men who smoked > or = 1 pack/day). These analyses indicate an acute effect of changes in smoking on changes in white blood cell count, a residual effect of having been a smoker, and high long-term tracking for white blood cell count.