The abuse of language and logic in epidemiology.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to J S McCormick.
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Between 1977 and 1988, 155 patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm in the Dumfries and Galloway health region were traced. One hundred and six patients underwent surgery; 57 elective operations for non-leaking aneurysms were performed locally without mortality, and of the 49 patients operated on with ruptured aneurysm, 11 were transferred to a major vascular centre with four deaths (36% mortality rate). The remaining 38 patients were treated locally. Twenty-three of these were operated on by a surgeon with vascular interest with nine deaths (39% mortality rate) and of the remaining 15 patients operated on by a surgeon without a vascular interest, ten died (66% mortality rate). These findings emphasize that patients presenting at a district hospital with leaking abdominal aortic aneurysm should be transferred to a major vascular unit if there is no local vascular expertise available, and our figures suggest that transfer of such patients does not prejudice survival. Further, of those patients who died of leaking aneurysm in hospital without undergoing surgery (25 patients), 15 were in hospital for longer than 3 h without the correct diagnosis. A significant improvement in mortality could follow prompt and accurate diagnosis at hospital level, with the most common error in diagnosis being renal colic.
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A method is described for estimating the prevalence of chronic respiratory disease in a middle aged and elderly general practice based population, using the prescription of drugs in order to identify the disease. The prevalence estimates ranged from 15 per 1,000 in men aged 45-50 years to 62 per 1,000 in those aged 75-80 years. For women the corresponding values were 11 to 29 per 1,000. The estimates attained displayed the age and sex patterns expected on the basis of other data sources including morbidity surveys in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. The similarity suggests that this may be a valid method for estimating quickly and cheaply the prevalence of certain diseases in the community.
Screening for carcinoma of the cervix by cervical smears satisfies none of the criteria which would provide its justification. It is an expensive contribution to ill health because the harms exceed the possible benefits by a substantial margin.
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The predictive value of peroperative blood flow measurements has been evaluated in a prospective study of femoro-distal bypass grafts. Seventy grafts placed in patients with critical ischaemia were assessed with a minimum follow-up of 2 years. Thirty-one grafts were performed using autogenous saphenous vein (ASV), 27 using a polytetrafluoroethylene prosthesis (PTFE) and in 12 human umbilical vein (HUV) was used. Six grafts failed early (within 1 month of operation) and 19 failed late, giving an overall patency rate of 60% at 5 years. ASV grafts had a significantly better patency rate than either prosthetic material. Analysis of flow rates measured before and after regional vasodilatation revealed no significant differences between types of graft or between grafts that subsequently failed and those remaining patent. Flow velocity prior to vasodilatation was significantly higher in patent grafts (mean 13.6) compared to those failing early (mean 6.3), but not compared to those failing late (mean 9.4). Flow velocities were also significantly higher in ASV grafts than prosthetic grafts. Flow velocity measured after vasodilatation was significantly higher in grafts remaining patent (mean 28.4) than those which failed late (mean 19.2). It is concluded that flow velocity is of value in the prediction of graft outcome. Graft velocity after vasodilatation of less than 20 cm/s. Predicted failure in 19 of 25 grafts that occluded. We are currently evaluating the selective use of anticoagulants in femoropopliteal grafts with a maximal flow velocity below 20 cm/s.
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