Biomedical subjects

Jack Reamy

Publications and source records attributed to Jack Reamy.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2005

The future prospects of Lithuanian family physicians: a 10-year forecasting study.

BACKGROUND: When health care reform was started in 1991, the physician workforce in Lithuania was dominated by specialists, and the specialty of family physician (FP) did not exist at all. During fifteen years of Lithuania's independence this specialty evolved rapidly and over 1,900 FPs were trained or retrained. Since 2003, the Lithuanian health care sector has undergone restructuring to optimize the network of health care institutions as well as the delivery of services; specific attention has been paid to the development of services provided by FPs, with more health care services shifted from the hospital level to the primary health care level. In this paper we analyze if an adequate workforce of FPs will be available in the future to take over new emerging tasks. METHODS: A computer spreadsheet simulation model was used to project the supply of FPs in 2006-2015. The supply was projected according to three scenarios, which took into account different rates of retirement, migration and drop out from training. In addition different population projections and enrollment numbers in residency programs were also considered. Three requirement scenarios were made using different approaches. In the first scenario we used the requirement estimated by a panel of experts using the Delphi technique. The second scenario was based on the number of visits to FPs in 2003 and took into account the goal to increase the number of visits. The third scenario was based on the determination that one FP should serve no more than 2,000 inhabitants. The three scenarios for the projection of supply were compared with the three requirement scenarios. RESULTS: The supply of family physicians will be higher in 2015 compared to 2005 according to all projection scenarios. The largest differences in the supply scenarios were caused by different migration rates, enrollment numbers to training programs and the retirement age. The second supply scenario, which took into account 1.1% annual migration rate, stable enrollment to residency programs and later retirement, appears to be the most probable. The first requirement scenario, which was based on the opinion of well-informed key experts in the field, appears to be the best reflection of FP requirements; however none of the supply scenarios considered would satisfy these requirements. CONCLUSION: Despite the rapid expansion of the FP workforce during the last fifteen years, ten-year forecasts of supply and requirement indicate that the number of FPs in 2015 will not be sufficient. The annual enrollment in residency training programs should be increased by at least 20% for the next three years. Accurate year-by-year monitoring of the workforce is crucial in order to prevent future shortages and to maintain the desired family physician workforce.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Physicians resources in Lithuania: change comes slowly.

AIM: To analyze the structure of the physician workforce in Lithuania at the time when the country gained independence, changes it has undergone since 1990, and physician resource planning activities. METHODS: National and international databases were examined to determine the changes in the structure of physician workforce after 1990. Studies and reports, funded by international and national governmental organizations, were reviewed to examine the recommendations for physician resource planning and the rate of their acceptance. Since there was no government plan, a study using Delphi technique was conducted to find consensus among practitioners and policy makers on the physician-to-population ratio needed in Lithuania. Medical residents and physicians in Lithuania were surveyed to assess their emigration intentions. RESULTS: In comparison with other Baltic countries, the number of physicians in Lithuania has remained high despite dramatic reductions in the number of students enrolled to medical schools. There is still a maldistribution of physician resources geographically and by specialty. The government has accepted few recommendations based on the international studies. None of the internal databases provided all the needed information on the physician workforce and the existing databases could not be linked to gain access to all required information. CONCLUSIONS: The physician-to-population ratio remained high after Lithuania had gained independence. There has been little planning at the government level to determine the number of physicians needed in a reformed health system. Changes in the number of students admitted to medical schools did not follow from a well thought-out long-term plan for physician workforce the country will need in the future. To develop a frequently updated database of physicians is essential for the successful planning of future physician workforce.

Databases as Topic↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Physician workforce planning and the transition to primary health care in former socialist countries.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, countries in Eastern Europe and the Newly Independent States inherited a physician workforce that was often too large, dominated by specialists, and poorly prepared for the transition to primary health care and the addition of the family/general practice specialty. We examine attempts in selected countries to plan the future physician workforce, while attempting to reduce the size of the workforce and train physicians to lead the transition to primary health care (PHC). We look the impact these efforts have had on the current workforce and will have on the future physician workforce. With few exceptions, the first move after independence was to reduce the inputs into the physician workforce in an attempt to reduce the size of the workforce, considered large by western standards, in 1990 between 350 and 400 per 100, 000 population compared to the EU average of 299. These reductions often did not result from planning and ignored the lengthy physician training process, leading to concerns for the future supply of physicians and the conclusion that many other factors were influencing the number of physicians. At the same time, two methods were being employed to rapidly prepare physicians for PHC, retraining of existing physicians for the short-term and the establishment of training programs in the faculties of medicine to train family/general practitioners (GPs) for the long-term. GPs per 100,000 population remained at about 102 throughout the period in the original EU countries, but in the new EU countries went from 51 in 1991 to 63 in 2002. The success of the programs was varied and often depended on the overall organization of the physician workforce, the status of the new family physician within the workforce and the commitment at the national level to the transition to PHC. After over a decade of independence, there is still a struggle to have a physician workforce with the right numbers, the right specialty mix, and practicing in the right locations.

Education, Medical, Graduate↗