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John M Drake

Publications and source records attributed to John M Drake.

13 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Societal learning in epidemics: intervention effectiveness during the 2003 SARS outbreak in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Rapid response to outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is impeded by uncertain diagnoses and delayed communication. Understanding the effect of inefficient response is a potentially important contribution of epidemic theory. To develop this understanding we studied societal learning during emerging outbreaks wherein patient removal accelerates as information is gathered and disseminated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed an extension of a standard outbreak model, the simple stochastic epidemic, which accounts for societal learning. We obtained expressions for the expected outbreak size and the distribution of epidemic duration. We found that rapid learning noticeably affects the final outbreak size even when learning exhibits diminishing returns (relaxation). As an example, we estimated the learning rate for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Singapore. Evidence for relaxation during the first eight weeks of the outbreak was inconclusive. We estimated that if societal learning had occurred at half the actual rate, the expected final size of the outbreak would have reached nearly 800 cases, more than three times the observed number of infections. By contrast, the expected outbreak size for societal learning twice as effective was 116 cases. CONCLUSION: These results show that the rate of societal learning can greatly affect the final size of disease outbreaks, justifying investment in early warning systems and attentiveness to disease outbreak by both government authorities and the public. We submit that the burden of emerging infections, including the risk of a global pandemic, could be efficiently reduced by improving procedures for rapid detection of outbreaks, alerting public health officials, and aggressively educating the public at the start of an outbreak.

Communicable Diseases, Emerging↗
PubMed2006

Heterosis, the catapult effect and establishment success of a colonizing bird.

The genetic basis of population colonization is poorly understood, particularly in animals. Here, I introduce the idea of a 'catapult effect' to explain how the effects of transient increases in fitness can be retained in population demography diminishing the chance of extinction. I tested this idea using information on historical introductions of hybrid and non-hybrid pheasants in the United States. I found that hybrid pheasants were 2.2 times more likely to establish than non-hybrid strains. Analysis of fitness components failed to support the alternative that the increased odds of establishment resulted from increased genetic variation conferring permanent fitness benefits through directional selection or by purging deleterious alleles. These results show that even ephemeral increases in fitness can affect the persistence of small populations.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Antagonistic effects of seed dispersal and herbivory on plant migration.

The two factors that determine plant migration rates - seed dispersal and population growth - are generally treated independently, despite the fact that many animals simultaneously enhance plant migration rate via seed dispersal, and decrease it via negative effects of herbivory on population growth. Using extensive empirical data, we modelled the antagonistic effects of seed dispersal and herbivory by white-tailed deer on potential migration rates of Trillium grandiflorum, a forest herb in eastern North America. This novel antagonistic interaction is illustrated by maximum migration rates occurring at intermediate, but low herbivory (< 15%). Assuming herbivory < 20% and favourable conditions for population growth during post-glacial migration, seed dispersal by deer can explain rates of migration achieved in the past, in contrast to previous models of forest herb migration. However, relatively unfavourable conditions for population growth and increasingly intense herbivory by deer may compromise plant migration in the face of present and future climate change.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Extinction times in experimental populations.

Predicting population extinctions is a key element of quantitative conservation biology and population ecology. Although stochastic population theories have long been used to obtain theoretical distributions of population extinction times, model-based predictions have rarely been tested. Here I report results from a quantitative analysis of extinction time in 281 experimental populations of water fleas (Daphnia magna) in variable environments. To my knowledge, this is the first quantitative estimate of the shape of the distribution of population extinction times based on extinction data for any species. The finding that the distribution of population extinction times was extraordinarily peaked is consistent with theoretical predictions for density-independent populations, but inconsistent with predictions for density-dependent populations. The tail of the extinction time distribution was not exponential. These results imply that our current theories of extinction are inadequate. Future work should focus on how demographic stochasticity scales with population size and effects of nonrandom variable environments on population growth and decline.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Propagule pressure and persistence in experimental populations.

Average inoculum size and number of introductions are known to have positive effects on population persistence. However, whether these factors affect persistence independently or interact is unknown. We conducted a two-factor experiment in which 112 populations of parthenogenetic Daphnia magna were maintained for 41 days to study effects of inoculum size and introduction frequency on: (i) population growth, (ii) population persistence and (iii) time-to-extinction. We found that the interaction of inoculum size and introduction frequency-the immigration rate-affected all three dependent variables, while population growth was additionally affected by introduction frequency. We conclude that for this system the most important aspect of propagule pressure is immigration rate, with relatively minor additional effects of introduction frequency and negligible effects of inoculum size.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Limits to forecasting precision for outbreaks of directly transmitted diseases.

BACKGROUND: Early warning systems for outbreaks of infectious diseases are an important application of the ecological theory of epidemics. A key variable predicted by early warning systems is the final outbreak size. However, for directly transmitted diseases, the stochastic contact process by which outbreaks develop entails fundamental limits to the precision with which the final size can be predicted. METHODS AND FINDINGS: I studied how the expected final outbreak size and the coefficient of variation in the final size of outbreaks scale with control effectiveness and the rate of infectious contacts in the simple stochastic epidemic. As examples, I parameterized this model with data on observed ranges for the basic reproductive ratio (R0) of nine directly transmitted diseases. I also present results from a new model, the simple stochastic epidemic with delayed-onset intervention, in which an initially supercritical outbreak (R0 > 1) is brought under control after a delay. CONCLUSION: The coefficient of variation of final outbreak size in the subcritical case (R0 < 1) will be greater than one for any outbreak in which the removal rate is less than approximately 2.41 times the rate of infectious contacts, implying that for many transmissible diseases precise forecasts of the final outbreak size will be unattainable. In the delayed-onset model, the coefficient of variation (CV) was generally large (CV > 1) and increased with the delay between the start of the epidemic and intervention, and with the average outbreak size. These results suggest that early warning systems for infectious diseases should not focus exclusively on predicting outbreak size but should consider other characteristics of outbreaks such as the timing of disease emergence.

Communicable Disease Control↗
PubMed2005

Population effects of increased climate variation.

Global circulation models predict and numerous observations confirm that anthropogenic climate change has altered high-frequency climate variability. However, it is not yet well understood how changing patterns of environmental variation will affect wildlife population dynamics and other ecological processes. Theory predicts that a population's long-run growth rate is diminished and the chance of population extinction is increased as environmental variation increases. This results from the fact that population growth is a multiplicative process and that long-run population growth rate is the geometric mean of growth rates over time, which is always less than the arithmetic mean. However, when population growth rates for unstructured populations are related nonlinearly to environmental drivers, increasing environmental variation can increase a population's long-run growth rate. This suggests that patterns of environmental variation associated with different aspects of climate change may affect population dynamics in different ways. Specifically, increasing variation in rainfall might result in diminished long-run growth rates for many animal species while increasing variation in temperature might result in increased long-run growth rates. While the effect of rainfall is theoretically well understood and supported by data, the hypothesized effect of temperature is not. Here, I analyse two datasets to study the effect of fluctuating temperatures on growth rates of zooplankton. Results are consistent with the prediction that fluctuating temperatures should increase long-run growth rates and the frequency of extreme demographic events.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations.

Understanding population extinctions is a chief goal of ecological theory. While stochastic theories of population growth are commonly used to forecast extinction, models used for prediction have not been adequately tested with experimental data. In a previously published experiment, variation in available food was experimentally manipulated in 281 laboratory populations of Daphnia magna to test hypothesized effects of environmental variation on population persistence. Here, half of those data were used to select and fit a stochastic model of population growth to predict extinctions of populations in the other half. When density-dependent demographic stochasticity was detected and incorporated in simple stochastic models, rates of population extinction were accurately predicted or only slightly biased. However, when density-dependent demographic stochasticity was not accounted for, as is usual when forecasting extinction of threatened and endangered species, predicted extinction rates were severely biased. Thus, an experimental demonstration shows that reliable estimates of extinction risk may be obtained for populations in variable environments if high-quality data are available for model selection and if density-dependent demographic stochasticity is accounted for. These results suggest that further consideration of density-dependent demographic stochasticity is required if predicted extinction rates are to be relied upon for conservation planning.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Global hot spots of biological invasions: evaluating options for ballast-water management.

Biological invasions from ballast water are a severe environmental threat and exceedingly costly to society. We identify global hot spots of invasion based on worldwide patterns of ship traffic. We then estimate the rate of port-to-port invasion using gravity models for spatial interactions, and we identify bottlenecks to the regional exchange of species using the Ford-Fulkerson algorithm for network flows. Finally, using stochastic simulations of different strategies for controlling ballast-water introductions, we find that reducing the per-ship-visit chance of causing invasion is more effective in reducing the rate of biotic homogenization than eliminating key ports that are the epicentres for global spread.

Biodiversity↗
PubMed2004

Allee effects and the risk of biological invasion.

The Allee effect is a nonlinear phenomenon exhibited in the population dynamics of sparse populations in which the per capita population growth rate increases with increasing population density. In sufficiently sparse populations, the Allee effect may lead to extinction and is known to generate a threshold in the probability of establishment when presented as a function of introduced population size or density. As introduced populations are generally small, Allee effects are probably common in biological invasions and their consideration is necessary for accurately assessing the risk of invasion by many species, including all sexually reproducing species. Bythotrephes longimanus, an invasive, freshwater, cladoceran zooplankter from Europe, is one such species. Here, I review a previously published model of the Allee effect for continuously sexually reproducing species. Then, I develop a new model for seasonally parthenogenetic species such as Bythotrephes, and thereby demonstrate the potential consequences of Allee effects. This result underscores the importance of considering nonlinear phenomena, including thresholds, when conducting risk analysis for biological introductions.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

The paradox of the parasites: implications for biological invasion.

The enemy-release hypothesis for biological invasions supposes that invasive species may be more successful in their introduced ranges than in their native ranges owing to the absence of coevolved natural enemies. Recent studies supporting this hypothesis have found that introduced plants and animals are less parasitized in their introduced ranges than in their native ranges. Expanding on this theory, I hypothesize that the role of enemy release may differ among the introduction, establishment and spread phases of an invasion. I present a simple model indicating that parasite release is unlikely to greatly affect the chance of establishment in populations with and without an immune subpopulation. The specific numerical relationship between the number of individuals introduced and the chance of establishment depends on a relationship between virulence, here conceptualized as the chance for the extinction of a lineage, and the fraction of the population infected at introduction. These results support the idea of a 'filter effect' in which different biological processes regulate the different phases of an invasion.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2003

Why does grassland productivity increase with species richness? Disentangling species richness and composition with tests for overyielding and superyielding in biodiversity experiments.

The causal relationship between the biodiversity of natural and modified environments and their net primary production has been a topic of significant scientific controversy and scrutiny. Early theoretical and empirical results indicated that production was sometimes significantly correlated with species richness when species richness was directly manipulated in experimental systems. Possible mechanisms for this phenomenon include statistical sampling effects, complementary resource use and mutualistic interactions. However, the interpretation of experimental results has sometimes confounded species richness with species composition, and disentangling the effects of species diversity from species identity has proved a formidable challenge. Here, I present a statistical method that is based on simple probability models and does not rely on the species composition of individual plots to distinguish among three phenomena that occur in biodiversity-production experiments: underyielding, overyielding and (a new concept) superyielding. In some cases, distinguishing these phenomena will provide evidence for underlying mechanisms. As a proof-of-concept, I first applied this technique to a simulated dataset, indicating the strengths of the method with both clear and ambiguous cases. I then analysed data from the BIODEPTH experimental biodiversity manipulations. No evidence of either overyielding or superyielding was detected in the BIODEPTH experiment.

Biomass↗