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John M Kittelson

Publications and source records attributed to John M Kittelson.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

Bayesian evaluation of group sequential clinical trial designs.

Clinical trial designs often incorporate a sequential stopping rule to serve as a guide in the early termination of a study. When choosing a particular stopping rule, it is most common to examine frequentist operating characteristics such as type I error, statistical power, and precision of confidence intervals (Statist. Med. 2005, in revision). Increasingly, however, clinical trials are designed and analysed in the Bayesian paradigm. In this paper, we describe how the Bayesian operating characteristics of a particular stopping rule might be evaluated and communicated to the scientific community. In particular, we consider a choice of probability models and a family of prior distributions that allows concise presentation of Bayesian properties for a specified sampling plan.

Antibodies↗

Rheumatoid factor seropositivity is inversely associated with oral contraceptive use in women without rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether oral contraceptive use is associated with the presence of serum rheumatoid factor in women of reproductive age without rheumatoid arthritis. METHODS: 304 women selected from parents of children who were at increased risk of developing type 1 diabetes were studied, because they were enriched with the human leucocyte antigen-DR4 allele, a susceptibility marker for both type 1 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis. Participants visited a clinic where blood was drawn for rheumatoid factor testing, and exposure data were collected via questionnaires. A medical history and joint examination were performed to rule out rheumatoid arthritis. Participants and examiners were unaware of the participants' rheumatoid factor status at the time of examination and questionnaire. RESULTS: Use of oral contraceptives at any time was inversely associated with rheumatoid factor positivity (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.07 to 0.52) independent of age, education and smoking. Smoking > or = 20 pack-years was also associated with rheumatoid factor positivity (adjusted OR 56.38, 95% CI 4.31 to 736.98) compared with never smoking. Smoking 1-19 pack-years was not associated with a positive rheumatoid factor. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that oral contraceptive use, and possibly cigarette smoking, act early in the development of the immune dysregulation that occurs in rheumatoid arthritis.

Adult↗

Effects of dehydroepiandrosterone replacement therapy on bone mineral density in older adults: a randomized, controlled trial.

CONTEXT: Dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) and its sulfate (DHEAS) decrease with aging and are important androgen and estrogen precursors in older adults. Declines in DHEAS with aging may contribute to physiological changes that are sex hormone dependent. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to determine whether DHEA replacement increases bone mineral density (BMD) and fat-free mass. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A randomized, double-blinded, controlled trial was conducted at an academic research institution. Participants were 70 women and 70 men, aged 60-88 yr, with low serum DHEAS levels. INTERVENTION: The intervention was oral DHEA 50 mg/d or placebo for 12 months. MEASUREMENTS: BMD, fat mass, and fat-free mass were measured before and after intervention. RESULTS: Intent-to-treat analyses revealed trends for DHEA to increase BMD more than placebo at the total hip (1.0%, P = 0.05), trochanter (1.2%, P = 0.06), and shaft (1.2%, P = 0.05). In women only, DHEA increased lumbar spine BMD (2.2%, P = 0.04; sex-by-treatment interaction, P = 0.05). In secondary compliance analyses, BMD increases in hip regions were significant (1.2-1.6%; all P < 0.02) in the DHEA group. There were no significant effects of DHEA on fat or fat-free mass in intent-to-treat or compliance analyses. CONCLUSIONS: DHEA replacement therapy for 1 yr improved hip BMD in older adults and spine BMD in older women. Because there have been few randomized, controlled trials of the effects of DHEA therapy, these findings support the need for further investigations of the benefits and risks of DHEA replacement and the mechanisms for its actions.

Aged↗

A novel design for estimating relative accuracy of screening tests when complete disease verification is not feasible.

The accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) of a new screening test can be compared with that of a standard test by applying both tests to a group of subjects in which disease status can be determined by a gold standard (GS) test. However, it is not always feasible to administer a GS test to all study subjects. For example, a study is planned to determine whether a new screening test for cervical cancer ("ThinPrep") is better than the standard test ("Pap"), and in this setting it is not feasible (or ethical) to determine disease status by biopsy in order to identify women with and without disease for participation in a study. When determination of disease status is not possible for all study subjects, the relative accuracy of two screening tests can still be estimated by using a paired screen-positive (PSP) design in which all subjects receive both screening tests, but only have the GS test if one of the screening tests is positive. Unfortunately in the cervical cancer example, the PSP design is also infeasible because it is not technically possible to administer both the ThinPrep and Pap at the same time. In this article, we describe a randomized paired screen-positive (RPSP) design in which subjects are randomized to receive one of the two screening tests initially, and only receive the other screening test and GS if the first screening test is positive. We derive maximum likelihood estimators and confidence intervals for the relative accuracy of the two screening tests, and assess the small sample behavior of these estimators using simulation studies. Sample size formulae are derived and applied to the cervical cancer screening trial example, and the efficiency of the RPSP design is compared with other designs.

Biometry↗

Group sequential clinical trials for longitudinal data with analyses using summary statistics.

Longitudinal endpoints are used in clinical trials, and the analysis of the results is often conducted using within-individual summary statistics. When these trials are monitored, interim analyses that include subjects with incomplete follow-up can give incorrect decisions due to bias by non-linearity in the true time trajectory of the treatment effect. Linear mixed-effects models can be used to remove this bias, but there is a lack of software to support both the design and implementation of monitoring plans in this setting. This paper considers a clinical trial in which the measurement time schedule is fixed (at least for pre-trial design), and the scientific question is parameterized by a contrast across these measurement times. This setting assures generalizable inference in the presence of non-linear time trajectories. The distribution of the treatment effect estimate at the interim analyses using the longitudinal outcome measurements is given, and software to calculate the amount of information at each interim analysis is provided. The interim information specifies the analysis timing thereby allowing standard group sequential design software packages to be used for trials with longitudinal outcomes. The practical issues with implementation of these designs are described; in particular, methods are presented for consistent estimation of treatment effects at the interim analyses when outcomes are not measured according to the pre-trial schedule. Splus/R functions implementing this inference using appropriate linear mixed-effects models are provided. These designs are illustrated using a clinical trial of statin treatment for the symptoms of peripheral arterial disease.

Humans↗

Gender differences in lipoprotein lipase activity after acute exercise.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether gender differences exist in lipoprotein lipase (LPL) activity in response to exercise and/or insulin. Exercise and insulin are known modulators of LPL activity in men, but this is less clear in women. LPL activity may predict propensity for obesity; therefore, understanding its modulators is of considerable importance. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: Gender differences in skeletal muscle and adipose tissue LPL activity were determined after a single bout of exercise followed by a hyperinsulinemic/euglycemic clamp and compared with an identical rest day in healthy lean men (n = 10) and women (n = 10). Muscle and adipose tissue biopsies were obtained pre- (post-exercise vs. rest) and post-clamp. RESULTS: Basal levels of muscle and adipose tissue LPL activity were not different between men and women. There was, however, a significant gender by day interaction for muscle LPL activity (p = 0.023) and adipose tissue LPL activity (p = 0.013). In muscle, this was because of a significant increase in LPL activity on the exercise vs. rest day in men (p < 0.001) but not women. Adipose tissue LPL activity also increased significantly in men on the exercise day relative to rest day (p = 0.04) but decreased in women (p = 0.10). The hyperinulinemic/euglycemic clamp had no independent effect on tissue LPL activity, in either gender, after rest or exercise. DISCUSSION: In the 3 to 4 hours after exercise, muscle and adipose tissue LPL activity increased significantly in men, whereas LPL activity remained unchanged in women.

Adipose Tissue↗

Prognostic importance of tumor size for localized conventional (clear cell) renal cell carcinoma: assessment of TNM T1 and T2 tumor categories and comparison with other prognostic parameters.

BACKGROUND: The T1 and T2 classifications of the International Union Against Cancer TNM classification system for renal cell carcinoma are based on primary tumor size, and in various editions of the classification, the cut points between T1 and T2 have been amended to provide clinical utility. In the current edition, the T1/T2 cut point is less than or equal to and greater than 7 cm. and more recently a subdivision of the T1 classification (less than or equal to and < 4 cm) has been proposed to identify patients suitable for partial nephrectomy. This study investigates the prognostic significance of tumor size in a series of organ-confined clear cell renal cell carcinomas. METHODS: One hundred thirty cases of organ-confined clear cell renal cell carcinomas, with a minimum of 5 years' follow-up, were identified from the New South Wales Cancer Registry. Tumor size was compared with survival using the method of Kaplan and Meier for TNM size categories, and proportional hazards regression was used for assessing size as a continuous variable. Proportional hazards regression also was used for multivariable comparisons of size and other prognostic parameters (Fuhrman grade, AgNOR score, and Ki-67 index) against survival. RESULTS: Of 116 cases for which tumor dimension was recorded, 25 patients had died of cancer-related causes. Primary tumor size ranged from 12 to 140 mm (mean, 57.3 mm). The association between survival and size was significant irrespective of the TNM classification and was also significant when size was modeled continuously (P = 0.000125, hazard of death increased by 3.51 times for each doubling of tumor size). On univariate analysis, Fuhrman grade (P = 0.04) and AgNOR score (P = 0.015) were associated with survival; however, on multivariate analysis only tumor size retained significance. CONCLUSIONS: Although the cut point of T1 and T2 TNM categories and the proposed T1 subdivision cut point correlate with survival, our finding that size is a continuous variable indicates that as a prognostic parameter for clear cell renal cell carcinoma, primary tumor size is relative rather than indicative.

Adult↗