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Biomedical subjects

John Whitehead

Publications and source records attributed to John Whitehead.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Comparing correlations of continuous observations from two independent populations using a sequential approach.

A sequential study design generally makes more efficient use of available information than a fixed sample counterpart of equal power. This feature is gradually being exploited by researchers in genetic and epidemiological investigations that utilize banked biological resources and in studies where time, cost and ethics are prominent considerations. Recent work in this area has focussed on the sequential analysis of matched case-control studies with a dichotomous trait. In this paper, we extend the sequential approach to a comparison of the associations within two independent groups of paired continuous observations. Such a comparison is particularly relevant in familial studies of phenotypic correlation using twins. We develop a sequential twin method based on the intraclass correlation and show that use of sequential methodology can lead to a substantial reduction in the number of observations without compromising the study error rates. Additionally, our approach permits straightforward allowance for other explanatory factors in the analysis. We illustrate our method in a sequential heritability study of dysplasia that allows for the effect of body mass index and compares monozygotes with pairs of singleton sisters.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗
PubMed2006

Sequential genome-wide association studies for monitoring adverse events in the clinical evaluation of new drugs.

Pharmacovigilance, the monitoring of adverse events (AEs), is an integral part in the clinical evaluation of a new drug. Until recently, attempts to relate the incidence of AEs to putative causes have been restricted to the evaluation of simple demographic and environmental factors. The advent of large-scale genotyping, however, provides an opportunity to look for associations between AEs and genetic markers, such as single nucleotides polymorphisms (SNPs). It is envisaged that a very large number of SNPs, possibly over 500,000, will be used in pharmacovigilance in an attempt to identify any genetic difference between patients who have experienced an AE and those who have not. We propose a sequential genome-wide association test for analysing AEs as they arise, allowing evidence-based decision-making at the earliest opportunity. This gives us the capability of quickly establishing whether there is a group of patients at high-risk of an AE based upon their DNA. Our method provides a valid test which takes account of linkage disequilibrium and allows for the sequential nature of the procedure. The method is more powerful than using a correction, such as Sidák, that assumes that the tests are independent.

Adverse Drug Reaction Reporting Systems↗
PubMed2006

The sequential analysis of repeated binary responses: a score test for the case of three time points.

In this paper a robust method is developed for the analysis of data consisting of repeated binary observations taken at up to three fixed time points on each subject. The primary objective is to compare outcomes at the last time point, using earlier observations to predict this for subjects with incomplete records. A score test is derived. The method is developed for application to sequential clinical trials, as at interim analyses there will be many incomplete records occurring in non-informative patterns. Motivation for the methodology comes from experience with clinical trials in stroke and head injury, and data from one such trial is used to illustrate the approach. Extensions to more than three time points and to allow for stratification are discussed.

Clinical Trials as Topic↗
PubMed2006

An evaluation of Bayesian designs for dose-escalation studies in healthy volunteers.

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures previously proposed for dose-escalation studies in healthy volunteers are reviewed and evaluated. Modifications are made to the expression of the prior distribution in order to make the procedure simpler to implement and a more relevant criterion for optimality is introduced. The results of an extensive simulation exercise to establish the properties of the procedure and to aid choice between designs are summarized, and the way in which readers can use simulation to choose a design for their own trials is described. The influence of the value of the within-subject correlation on the procedure is investigated and the use of a simple prior to reflect uncertainty about the correlation is explored.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2006

Bayesian decision procedures for dose-escalation based on evidence of undesirable events and therapeutic benefit.

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures are developed for dose-escalation studies based on bivariate observations of undesirable events and signs of therapeutic benefit. The methods generalize earlier approaches taking into account only the undesirable outcomes. Logistic regression models are used to model the two responses, which are both assumed to take a binary form. A prior distribution for the unknown model parameters is suggested and an optional safety constraint can be included. Gain functions to be maximized are formulated in terms of accurate estimation of the limits of a 'therapeutic window' or optimal treatment of the next cohort of subjects, although the approach could be applied to achieve any of a wide variety of objectives. The designs introduced are illustrated through simulation and retrospective implementation to a completed dose-escalation study.

Anticoagulants↗
PubMed2006

Active control comparisons: the ideal trial design.

This report describes the concept for a clinical trial that uses carbamazepine as the gold-standard active control for a study of newly diagnosed patients. The authors describe an endpoint including efficacy and tolerability, and a stopping rule that uses a series of interim analyses in order to reach a conclusion as efficiently as possible without sacrificing reliability.

Anticonvulsants↗
PubMed2005

Design considerations in the sequential analysis of matched case-control data.

A role for sequential test procedures is emerging in genetic and epidemiological studies using banked biological resources. This stems from the methodology's potential for improved use of information relative to comparable fixed sample designs. Studies in which cost, time and ethics feature prominently are particularly suited to a sequential approach. In this paper sequential procedures for matched case-control studies with binary data will be investigated and assessed. Design issues such as sample size evaluation and error rates are identified and addressed. The methodology is illustrated and evaluated using both real and simulated data sets.

Breast Neoplasms↗
PubMed2004

Stopping clinical trials by design.

Before any clinical trial begins, a detailed trial protocol must be prepared. The authority of the trial results will depend on the quality of this document. In many protocols, a key component is a plan for a series of interim analyses of the accumulating trial data, and a 'stopping rule' based on them. Such a rule might be intended to prevent participants from continuing to receive a drug that already seems to be unsafe, or to allow a successful drug to become generally available as soon as sufficient evidence of its advantages has been collected. There has been considerable misunderstanding of these rules, and controversies associated with them. Here, I discuss why this might be, and what can be done to promote their successful and beneficial use in the future.

Biomedical Research↗
PubMed2004

An evaluation of a bayesian method of dose escalation based on bivariate binary responses.

Recently, various approaches have been suggested for dose escalation studies based on observations of both undesirable events and evidence of therapeutic benefit. This article concerns a Bayesian approach to dose escalation that requires the user to make numerous design decisions relating to the number of doses to make available, the choice of the prior distribution, the imposition of safety constraints and stopping rules, and the criteria by which the design is to be optimized. Results are presented of a substantial simulation study conducted to investigate the influence of some of these factors on the safety and the accuracy of the procedure with a view toward providing general guidance for investigators conducting such studies. The Bayesian procedures evaluated use logistic regression to model the two responses, which are both assumed to be binary. The simulation study is based on features of a recently completed study of a compound with potential benefit to patients suffering from inflammatory diseases of the lung.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2003

How a sequential design would have affected the GAIN International Study of gavestinel in stroke.

While planning the GAIN International Study of gavestinel in acute stroke, a sequential triangular test was proposed but not implemented. Before the trial commenced it was agreed to evaluate the sequential design retrospectively to evaluate the differences in the resulting analyses, trial durations and sample sizes in order to assess the potential of sequential procedures for future stroke trials. This paper presents four sequential reconstructions of the GAIN study made under various scenarios. For the data as observed, the sequential design would have reduced the trial sample size by 234 patients and shortened its duration by 3 or 4 months. Had the study not achieved a recruitment rate that far exceeded expectation, the advantages of the sequential design would have been much greater. Sequential designs appear to be an attractive option for trials in stroke.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed2003

A score test for binary data with patient non-compliance.

A score test is developed for binary clinical trial data, which incorporates patient non-compliance while respecting randomization. It is assumed in this paper that compliance is 'all-or-nothing', in the sense that a patient either accepts all of the treatment assigned as specified in the protocol, or none of it. Direct analytic comparisons of the adjusted test statistic for both the score test and the likelihood ratio test are made with the corresponding test statistics that adhere to the intention-to-treat principle. It is shown that no gain in power is possible over the intention-to-treat analysis, by adjusting for patient non-compliance. Sample size formulae are derived and simulation studies are used to demonstrate that the sample size approximation holds.

Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung↗
PubMed2003

Stopping clinical trials because of treatment ineffectiveness: a comparison of a futility design with a method of stochastic curtailment.

This paper introduces a simple futility design that allows a comparative clinical trial to be stopped due to lack of effect at any of a series of planned interim analyses. Stopping due to apparent benefit is not permitted. The design is for use when any positive claim should be based on the maximum sample size, for example to allow subgroup analyses or the evaluation of safety or secondary efficacy responses. A final frequentist analysis can be performed that is valid for the type of design employed. Here the design is described and its properties are presented. Its advantages and disadvantages relative to the use of stochastic curtailment are discussed.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗
PubMed2003

Incorporating data received after a sequential trial has stopped into the final analysis: implementation and comparison of methods.

In a sequential clinical trial, accrual of data on patients often continues after the stopping criterion for the study has been met. This is termed "overrunning." Overrunning occurs mainly when the primary response from each patient is measured after some extended observation period. The objective of this article is to compare two methods of allowing for overrunning. In particular, simulation studies are reported that assess the two procedures in terms of how well they maintain the intended type I error rate. The effect on power resulting from the incorporation of "overrunning data" using the two procedures is evaluated.

Biometry↗
PubMed2002

Estimating a treatment effect in survival studies in which patients switch treatment.

For disease indications such as Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and various cancers, randomization to a pure control treatment may be scientifically desirable but not ethically acceptable. Clinicians may insist that the experimental treatment be made available, at least as a rescue medication, for all patients in the control arm. A method for estimating a treatment effect in survival data from randomized clinical trials of this type is developed under an accelerated failure time model. This approach retains all patients in the groups to which they were randomized and is not based on an ad hoc subgroup analysis. By conditioning on having observed patient switch times, this method avoids the need to model patient switching patterns in the analysis. This new approach is evaluated using simulation studies, and is illustrated through analysing data from a Medical Research Council lung cancer trial.

Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung↗
PubMed2002

Efficacy and Safety of Remacemide versus Carbamazepine in Newly Diagnosed Epilepsy: Comparison by Sequential Analysis.

An international trial comparing remacemide hydrochloride with carbamazepine was undertaken in newly diagnosed epilepsy using a novel double-blind, parallel group, double triangular sequential design. Patients with two or more partial or generalized tonic-clonic seizures in the previous year were randomized to 600 mg daily of remacemide or carbamazepine. Subsequent dosage adjustments were allowed while maintaining the blind. The trial completed 20 months after initiation following the second interim analysis. Efficacy data on 449 patients showed carbamazepine to be significantly more effective than remacemide in preventing seizure recurrence (P = 0.003). Median time to first seizure after titration, the primary endpoint, was 112 days for remacemide and 306 days with carbamazepine. Time to second, third, and fourth seizures after randomization all significantly favored carbamazepine. Remacemide was shown unequivocally to be inferior to carbamazepine in this patient population. This study also establishes carbamazepine as a proven treatment for use in subsequent active control comparative trials.

Journal Article↗