Health trade-offs from policies to alter fish consumption.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Animals↗
Biomedical subjects
Joshua T Cohen
Publications and source records attributed to Joshua T Cohen.
A quantitative analysis of prenatal methyl mercury exposure and cognitive development.
Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish also contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high MeHg fish to reduce MeHg exposure, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of the nutritional benefits. The Harvard Center for Risk Analysis convened an expert panel (see acknowledgements) to quantify the net impact of resulting hypothetical changes in fish consumption across the population. This paper quantifies the impact of prenatal MeHg exposure on cognitive development. Other papers quantify the beneficial impact of prenatal intake of n-3 PUFAs on cognitive function and the extent to which fish consumption protects against coronary heart disease mortality and stroke in adults. This analysis aggregates results from three major prospective epidemiology studies to quantify the association between prenatal MeHg exposure and cognitive development as measured by intelligence quotient (IQ). It finds that prenatal MeHg exposure sufficient to increase the concentration of mercury in maternal hair at parturition by 1 microg/g decreases IQ by 0.7 points. This paper identifies important sources of uncertainty influencing this estimate, concluding that the plausible range of values for this loss is 0 to 1.5 IQ points.
Central Nervous System↗
A quantitative analysis of prenatal intake of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and cognitive development.
Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish also contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high-MeHg fish to reduce MeHg exposure, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of the nutritional benefits. The Harvard Center for Risk Analysis convened an expert panel (see acknowledgements) to quantify the net impact of resulting hypothetical changes in fish consumption across the population. This paper estimates the impact of prenatal n-3 intake on cognitive development. Other papers quantify the negative impact of prenatal exposure to MeHg on cognitive development, and the extent to which fish consumption protects against coronary heart disease mortality and stroke in adults. This paper aggregates eight randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing cognitive development in controls and in children who had received n-3 PUFA supplementation (seven studies of formula supplementation and one study of maternal dietary supplementation). Our analysis assigns study weights accounting for statistical precision, relevance of three endpoint domains (general intelligence, verbal ability, and motor skills) to prediction of IQ, and age at evaluation. The study estimates that increasing maternal docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) intake by 100 mg/day increases child IQ by 0.13 points. The paper notes that findings were inconsistent across the RCTs evaluated (although our findings were relatively robust to changes in the weighting scheme used). Also, for seven of the eight studies reviewed, effects are extrapolated from formula supplementation to maternal dietary intake.
Central Nervous System↗
A quantitative analysis of fish consumption and coronary heart disease mortality.
Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high-MeHg fish to reduce MeHg exposure, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of the nutritional benefits. The Harvard Center for Risk Analysis convened an expert panel (see acknowledgements) to quantify the net impact of resulting hypothetical changes in fish consumption across the population. This paper estimates the impact of fish consumption on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI). Other papers quantify stroke risk and the impacts of both prenatal MeHg exposure and maternal intake of n-3 PUFAs on cognitive development. This analysis identified articles in a recent qualitative review appropriate for the development of a dose-response relationship. Studies had to satisfy quality criteria, quantify fish intake, and report the precision of the relative risk estimates. Relative risk results were averaged, weighted proportionately by precision. CHD risks associated with MeHg exposure were reviewed qualitatively because the available literature was judged inadequate for quantitative analysis. Eight studies were identified (29 exposure groups). Our analysis estimated that consuming small quantities of fish is associated with a 17% reduction in CHD mortality risk, with each additional serving per week associated with a further reduction in this risk of 3.9%. Small quantities of fish consumption were associated with risk reductions in nonfatal MI risk by 27%, but additional fish consumption conferred no incremental benefits.
Adult↗
A quantitative analysis of fish consumption and stroke risk.
Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high-MeHg fish to reduce MeHg exposure, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of the nutritional benefits. The Harvard Center for Risk Analysis convened an expert panel (see acknowledgements) to quantify the net impact of resulting hypothetical changes in fish consumption across the population. This paper estimates the impact of fish consumption on stroke risk. Other papers quantify coronary heart disease mortality risk and the impacts of both prenatal MeHg exposure and maternal intake of n-3 PUFAs on cognitive development. This analysis identified articles in a recent qualitative literature review that are appropriate for the development of a dose-response relationship between fish consumption and stroke risk. Studies had to satisfy quality criteria, quantify fish intake, and report the precision of the relative risk estimates. The analysis combined the relative risk results, weighting each proportionately to its precision. Six studies were identified as appropriate for inclusion in this analysis, including five prospective cohort studies and one case-control study (total of 24 exposure groups). Our analysis indicates that any fish consumption confers substantial relative risk reduction compared to no fish consumption (12% for the linear model), with the possibility that additional consumption confers incremental benefits (central estimate of 2.0% per serving per week).
Adult↗
A quantitative risk-benefit analysis of changes in population fish consumption.
Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high-MeHg fish, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of nutritional benefits. To investigate the aggregate impacts of hypothetical shifts in fish consumption, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis convened an expert panel (see acknowledgements). Effects investigated include prenatal cognitive development, coronary heart disease mortality, and stroke. Substitution of fish with high MeHg concentrations with fish containing less MeHg among women of childbearing age yields substantial developmental benefits and few negative impacts. However, if women instead decrease fish consumption, countervailing risks substantially reduce net benefits. If other adults (mistakenly and inappropriately) also reduce their fish consumption, the net public health impact is negative. Although high compliance with recommended fish consumption patterns can improve public health, unintended shifts in consumption can lead to public health losses. Risk managers should investigate and carefully consider how populations will respond to interventions, how those responses will influence nutrient intake and contaminant exposure, and how these changes will affect aggregate public health.
Adolescent↗
Fuels for urban transit buses: a cost-effectiveness analysis.
Public transit agencies have begun to adopt alternative propulsion technologies to reduce urban transit bus emissions associated with conventional diesel (CD) engines. Among the most popular alternatives are emission controlled diesel buses (ECD), defined here to be buses with continuously regenerating diesel particle filters burning low-sulfur diesel fuel, and buses burning compressed natural gas (CNG). This study uses a series of simplifying assumptions to arrive at first-order estimates for the incremental cost-effectiveness (CE) of ECD and CNG relative to CD. The CE ratio numerator reflects acquisition and operating costs. The denominator reflects health losses (mortality and morbidity) due to primary particulate matter (PM), secondary PM, and ozone exposure, measured as quality adjusted life years (QALYs). We find that CNG provides larger health benefits than does ECD (nine vs six QALYs annually per 1000 buses) but that ECD is more cost-effective than CNG (dollar 270 000 per QALY for ECD vs dollar 1.7 million to dollar 2.4 million for CNG). These estimates are subject to much uncertainty. We identify assumptions that contribute most to this uncertainty and propose potential research directions to refine our estimates.
Air Pollutants↗
A revised economic analysis of restrictions on the use of cell phones while driving.
Evidence that cell phone use while driving increases the risk of being involved in a motor vehicle crash has led policymakers to consider prohibitions on this practice. However, while restrictions would reduce property loss, injuries, and fatalities, consumers would lose the convenience of using these devices while driving. Quantifying the risks and benefits associated with cell phone use while driving is complicated by substantial uncertainty in the estimates of several important inputs, including the extent to which cell phone use increases a driver's risk of being involved in a crash, the amount of time drivers spend using cell phones (and hence their aggregate contribution to crashes, injuries, and fatalities), and the incremental value to users of being able to make calls while driving. Two prominent studies that have investigated cell phone use while driving have concluded that the practice should not be banned. One finds that the benefits of calls made while driving substantially exceed their costs while the other finds that other interventions could reduce motor vehicle injuries and fatalities (measured in terms of quality adjusted life years) at a lower cost. Another issue is that cell phone use imposes increased (involuntary) risks on other roadway users. This article revises the assumptions used in the two previous analyses to make them consistent and updates them using recent data. The result is a best estimate of zero for the net benefit of cell phone use while driving, a finding that differs substantially from the previous study. Our revised cost-effectiveness estimate for cell phone use while driving moves in the other direction, finding that the cost per quality adjusted life year increases modestly compared to the previous estimate. Both estimates are very uncertain.
Journal Article↗
A comprehensive evaluation of the potential health risks associated with occupational and environmental exposure to styrene.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Air Pollutants, Occupational↗
When is evidence sufficient?
Traditional conceptualizations of evidence-based medicine rely heavily on randomized controlled trials. Although initiatives to broaden definitions of evidence have been advanced, they generally have not tied evidentiary criteria formally and quantitatively to the benefits and costs involved in a decision to adopt or reject an intervention. Decision analysis provides a framework for combining information to inform the adoption decision in this manner. Value-of-information analysis, a related methodology, helps to determine whether it is worthwhile to collect additional information as well as the type of research that would be most helpful.
Decision Making, Organizational↗