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Julian Peto

Publications and source records attributed to Julian Peto.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Cancer survival is dependent on season of diagnosis and sunlight exposure.

Sunlight is essential for the production of vitamin D in the body. Evidence exists to suggest that vitamin D metabolites may have a role in tumor growth suppression. In this large study, involving over a million cancer patients from the United Kingdom, we have analyzed the role of season of diagnosis and sunlight exposure in cancer survival for cancers of the breast, colorectum, lung, prostate and at all sites combined. We used population-based data from the Thames Cancer Registry to analyze cancer survival in periods 0-1 and 0-5 years after diagnosis. The analysis was performed using Cox proportional regression analysis adjusting for age and period at diagnosis and including season of diagnosis and sunlight exposure in the preceding months as factors in the analysis. We found evidence of substantial seasonality in cancer survival, with diagnosis in summer and autumn associated with improved survival compared with that in winter, especially in female breast cancer patients and both male and female lung cancer patients (hazard ratios 0.86 [95% CI 0.83-0.89], 0.95 [95% CI 0.92-0.97] and 0.95 [95% CI 0.93-0.98] respectively). Cumulative sunlight exposure in the months preceding diagnosis was also a predictor of subsequent survival, although season of diagnosis was a stronger predictor than cumulative sunlight exposure. We found seasonality in cancer survival to be stronger in women than in men. Our results add to a growing body of evidence that vitamin D metabolites play an important role in cancer survival.

Female↗
PubMed2006

Search for low penetrance alleles for colorectal cancer through a scan of 1467 non-synonymous SNPs in 2575 cases and 2707 controls with validation by kin-cohort analysis of 14 704 first-degree relatives.

To identify low penetrance susceptibility alleles for colorectal cancer (CRC), we genotyped 1467 non-synonymous SNPs mapping to 871 candidate cancer genes in 2575 cases and 2707 controls. nsSNP selection was biased towards those predicted to be functionally deleterious. One SNP AKAP9 M463I remained significantly associated with CRC risk after stringent adjustment for multiple testing. Further SNPs associated with CRC risk included several previously reported to be associated with cancer risk including ATM F858L [OR=1.48; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-2.07] and P1054R (OR=1.42; 95% CI: 1.14-1.77) and MTHFR A222V (OR=0.82; 95% CI: 0.69-0.97). To validate associations, we performed a kin-cohort analysis on the 14 704 first-degree relatives of cases for each SNP associated at the 5% level in the case-control analysis employing the marginal maximum likelihood method to infer genotypes of relatives. Our observations support the hypothesis that inherited predisposition to CRC is in part mediated through polymorphic variation and identify a number of SNPs defining inter-individual susceptibility. We have made data from this analysis publicly available at http://www.icr.ac.uk/research/research_sections/cancer_genetics/cancer_genetics_teams/molecular_and_population_genetics/software_and_databases/index.shtml in order to facilitate the identification of low penetrance CRC susceptibility alleles through pooled analyses.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

Lack of evidence on diets for obesity for children: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased rapidly in most developed countries in the last decades, and this rise is now spreading to developing countries. Childhood obesity is also increasing. The UK government has set a target to halt the rise in childhood obesity by 2010. Dietary recommendations are a central component of any comprehensive weight-loss programme. A low-fat energy-restricted diet is the conventional therapy for obesity, but alternative dietary interventions have been proposed in recent years. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to assess dietary intervention studies designed to reduce weight in childhood and adolescence. The studies included overweight or obese children or adolescents in which there was a comparison group and change in body weight or BMI was reported. RESULTS: We identified only nine such studies, seven of which were randomized. Six were conducted in the USA, two in Cuba, and one in France. Low-carbohydrate and low-glycaemic-index diets appeared to be at least as effective as energy-restricted low-fat diets for short-term weight loss, but most studies were too small to be informative, and none provided evidence on long-term weight control. CONCLUSIONS: There is a marked mismatch between the public health importance of childhood obesity and the number and quality of the studies conducted so far to assess dietary interventions for weight reduction in childhood and adolescence, and little evidence to support the current recommendation of a low-fat energy-restricted diet. There is an urgent need for well-designed intervention studies of the long-term effectiveness of alternative diets to provide a basis for evidence-based recommendations.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Inconsistent association between the STK15 F31I genetic polymorphism and breast cancer risk.

STK15 may be a low-penetrance breast cancer susceptibility gene, and several reports suggest that women who are homozygous for the polymorphic variant F31I have an increased risk of breast cancer. To evaluate this potential breast cancer allele, we genotyped 507 patients with two primary breast cancers and 875 population-based control subjects for the STK15 F31I polymorphism. All statistical tests were two-sided. The Ile/Ile homozygous genotype was not associated with an increased risk in white women of British descent. The odds ratio for developing two primary breast cancers) in Ile/Ile homozygotes was 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.34 to 1.13), which corresponds to an odds ratio of 0.79 (95% CI = 0.58 to 1.06) for a first primary breast cancer. A meta-analysis of this study and other published studies showed statistically significant heterogeneity in the odds ratio estimates (P<.001). This heterogeneity could reflect either population-specific linkage disequilibrium with a functional variant or artifacts such as population stratification or publication bias.

Asian People↗
PubMed2006

The insulin-like growth factor system and mammographic features in premenopausal and postmenopausal women.

High levels of circulating insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and its major binding protein (IGFBP-3) at premenopausal ages have been associated with an increased breast cancer risk. We conducted a cross-sectional study (215 premenopausal women and 241 after natural menopause) nested within the Guernsey prospective studies to examine the relationship between the IGF system and mammographic features of the breast. The mammographically dense area in the breast increased with increasing serum levels of IGF-I (P for linear trend, P(t) = 0.05), IGF-II (P(t) = 0.08), and IGFBP-3 (P(t) = 0.01) only in premenopausal women. IGF-II and IGFBP-3 serum levels were associated with increases in the mammographically lucent area in both premenopausal (P(t) = 0.01 and 0.04, respectively) and postmenopausal women (P(t) < 0.001 for both), but these associations were no longer statistically significant after adjustment for body mass index and waist circumference. Neither the IGF-I/IGFBP-3 nor the IGF-II/IGFBP-3 molar ratio was associated with any of these mammographic features. The number of A alleles at a polymorphic locus in the promoter region of the IGFBP-3 gene was associated with increasing mean IGFBP-3 levels in both premenopausal (P(t) = 0.01) and postmenopausal (P(t) <0.001) women but not with mammographically dense area. These results support the hypothesis that the IGF system may affect the amount of mammographically dense tissue in premenopausal women, possibly by promoting cell proliferation and inhibiting apoptosis in the fibroglandular tissue. The findings also show strong relations between IGF-II and IGFBP-3 levels and the amount of mammographically lucent tissue, reflecting the associations between body adiposity and amount of fat tissue in the breast and between body adiposity and circulating levels of these growth factors.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Prediction of BRCA1 status in patients with breast cancer using estrogen receptor and basal phenotype.

PURPOSE: To investigate the proportion of breast cancers arising in patients with germ line BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations expressing basal markers and developing predictive tests for identification of high-risk patients. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Histopathologic material from 182 tumors in BRCA1 mutation carriers, 63 BRCA2 carriers, and 109 controls, collected as part of the international Breast Cancer Linkage Consortium were immunohistochemically stained for CK14, CK5/6, CK17, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), and osteonectin. RESULTS: All five basal markers were commoner in BRCA1 tumors than in control tumors (CK14: 61% versus 12%; CK5/6: 58% versus 7%; CK17: 53% versus 10%; osteonectin: 43% versus 19%; EGFR: 67% versus 21%; P < 0.0001 in each case). In a multivariate analysis, CK14, CK5/6, and estrogen receptor (ER) remained significant predictors of BRCA1 carrier status. In contrast, the frequency of basal markers in BRCA2 tumors did not differ significant from controls. CONCLUSION: The use of cytokeratin staining in combination with ER and morphology provides a more accurate predictor of BRCA1 mutation status than previously available, that may be useful in selecting patients for BRCA1 mutation testing. The high percentage of BRCA1 cases positive for EGFR suggests that specific anti-tyrosine kinase therapy may be of potential benefit in these patients.

Biomarkers, Tumor↗
PubMed2005

Polymorphisms and circulating levels in the insulin-like growth factor system and risk of breast cancer: a systematic review.

We reviewed all English-language articles on associations among circulating levels of the insulin-like growth factors (IGF) and their binding proteins (IGFBP), polymorphisms in their genes, and breast cancer risk. In premenopausal women, five of eight IGF-I studies and four of six IGFBP-3 studies of circulating levels found that women in the highest quantile had more than twice the risk of developing breast cancer of those in the lowest, although in some this effect was only apparent at young ages. In postmenopausal women, however, there was no consistent effect. A simple sequence length polymorphism 1 kb 5' to IGF-I was examined in relation to circulating levels of IGF-I (12 studies) or breast cancer risk (4 studies), but there was no convincing evidence of any effect. For an A/C polymorphism 5' to IGFBP-3, all three studies were consistent with a modest effect on circulating levels, but no evidence of a direct effect on breast cancer risk was seen in the only relevant study. Variation within the reference range of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 may confer only modest increases in breast cancer risk, and any single polymorphism may only account for a small proportion of that variation. Nevertheless, population attributable fractions for high circulating levels of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 and for common genetic variants could be substantial. Further large studies, or combined analysis of data from existing studies, are needed to quantify these effects more precisely.

Biomarkers, Tumor↗
PubMed2004

The search for low-penetrance cancer susceptibility alleles.

Much of the familial aggregation of common cancer results from inherited susceptibility, but highly penetrant mutations in known genes cannot account for most of the excess. Some of the unexplained familial risk is presumably due to high-penetrance mutations in as yet unidentified genes, but polygenic mechanisms are likely to account for a greater proportion, particularly in breast cancer. This inference, coupled with technological developments, has led to a renaissance in association studies. Most such studies have evaluated small numbers of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a few candidate genes, but reliable high-density oligonucleotide arrays and other novel techniques will allow genome-wide allelic association studies to be conducted. High-density genome-wide SNP analysis will include targets identified by structural considerations, as well as the growing list of candidate genes. In the longer term, high-throughput re-sequencing will be required to identify the rare pathogenic variants that may constitute the majority of low-penetrance alleles. The detection of low-penetrance cancer susceptibility genes will then be restricted mainly by the availability of large numbers of well-characterized cases and controls. Cancer patients with affected relatives are considerably more informative than unselected cases for such studies.

Family↗
PubMed2004

Comprehensive analysis of the contribution of germline MYH variation to early-onset colorectal cancer.

Mutations in the base excision repair gene MYH have recently been shown to confer recessive susceptibility to colorectal adenomas and carcinomas. To evaluate the contribution of germline MYH mutations to early-onset colorectal cancer, we screened a series of 358 unselected early-onset cases for germline changes in the coding sequence of the gene. Two cases harbored biallelic germline mutations (0.6%; 95% CI = 0.06-2.0) and 8 single MYH mutations (2.2%; 95% CI = 0.9-4.4). Both cases harboring biallelic MYH mutations had multiple polyps but not profuse polyposis. All cases had distally sited tumors. No biallelic mutations were detected among 354 controls. These results confirm that biallelic MYH mutations confer susceptibility to colorectal cancer but are unlikely to account for more than 3% of early-onset colorectal cancer.

Adenocarcinoma↗
PubMed2004

Lifetime risks of common cancers among retinoblastoma survivors.

BACKGROUND: Compared with the general population, carriers of germline mutations in RB1 who survive retinoblastoma (i.e., hereditary retinoblastoma survivors) are at increased risk of early-onset second cancers, particularly sarcomas, brain tumors, and melanoma. However, their risks for the epithelial cancers that commonly occur after age 50 years are not known. METHODS: We used hospital records to identify British retinoblastoma survivors born between 1873 and 1950, a period when few British retinoblastoma patients received high-dose radiotherapy. Cancers and deaths were identified by linkage with national registration records. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: We could trace the cancer histories of 144 survivors of hereditary retinoblastoma. From age 25 to age 84, there were 58 subsequent cancers, for a cumulative cancer incidence of 68.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 48.0% to 87.4%) and a cumulative cancer mortality of 56.3% (95% CI = 40.5% to 73.3%). Only eight of the 58 cancers were of bone or soft tissue, in marked contrast to findings from contemporary studies of American patients treated with external beam radiotherapy, among whom most second tumors are sarcomas. Compared with the general population, hereditary retinoblastoma survivors had higher mortality from lung cancer (standardized mortality ratio [SMR] = 7.01, 95% CI = 3.83 to 11.76), bladder cancer (SMR = 26.31, 95% CI = 8.54 to 61.41), and all other epithelial cancers combined (SMR = 3.29, 95% CI = 1.64 to 5.89). The overall standardized mortality ratio for epithelial cancer was inversely proportional to the approximate square of age (exponent of age = -2.1, 95% CI = -3.6 to -0.7), declining from 11.32 (95% CI = 4.15 to 24.64) at age 25-44 to 2.83 (95% CI = 1.04 to 6.16) at age 65-84. CONCLUSIONS: Survivors of hereditary retinoblastoma who are not exposed to high-dose radiotherapy have a high lifetime risk of developing a late-onset epithelial cancer. Most of the excess cancer risks in hereditary retinoblastoma survivors might be preventable by limiting exposures to DNA damaging agents (radiotherapy, tobacco, and UV light).

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Cervical cancer and use of hormonal contraceptives: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is believed to be the most important cause of cervical cancer. Recent studies suggest that long duration use of oral contraceptives increases the risk of cervical cancer in HPV positive women. METHODS: Results from published studies were combined to examine the relationship between invasive and in situ cervical cancer and duration and recency of use of hormonal contraceptives, with particular attention to HPV infection. FINDINGS: 28 eligible studies were identified, together including 12531 women with cervical cancer. Compared with never users of oral contraceptives, the relative risks of cervical cancer increased with increasing duration of use: for durations of approximately less than 5 years, 5-9 years, and 10 or more years, respectively, the summary relative risks were 1.1 (95% CI 1.1-1.2), 1.6 (1.4-1.7), and 2.2 (1.9-2.4) for all women; and 0.9 (0.7-1.2), 1.3 (1.0-1.9), and 2.5 (1.6-3.9) for HPV positive women. The results were broadly similar for invasive and in situ cervical cancers, for squamous cell and adenocarcinoma, and in studies that adjusted for HPV status, number of sexual partners, cervical screening, smoking, or use of barrier contraceptives. The limited available data suggest that the relative risk of cervical cancer may decrease after use of oral contraceptives ceases. However, study designs varied and there was some heterogeneity between study results. INTERPRETATION: Although long duration use of hormonal contraceptives is associated with an increased risk of cervical cancer, the public health implications of these findings depend largely on the extent to which the observed associations remain long after use of hormonal contraceptives has ceased, and this cannot be evaluated properly from published data.

Case-Control Studies↗
PubMed2002

Low-penetrance susceptibility to breast cancer due to CHEK2(*)1100delC in noncarriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations.

Mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 confer a high risk of breast and ovarian cancer, but account for only a small fraction of breast cancer susceptibility. To find additional genes conferring susceptibility to breast cancer, we analyzed CHEK2 (also known as CHK2), which encodes a cell-cycle checkpoint kinase that is implicated in DNA repair processes involving BRCA1 and p53 (refs 3,4,5). We show that CHEK2(*)1100delC, a truncating variant that abrogates the kinase activity, has a frequency of 1.1% in healthy individuals. However, this variant is present in 5.1% of individuals with breast cancer from 718 families that do not carry mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 (P = 0.00000003), including 13.5% of individuals from families with male breast cancer (P = 0.00015). We estimate that the CHEK2(*)1100delC variant results in an approximately twofold increase of breast cancer risk in women and a tenfold increase of risk in men. By contrast, the variant confers no increased cancer risk in carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. This suggests that the biological mechanisms underlying the elevated risk of breast cancer in CHEK2 mutation carriers are already subverted in carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations, which is consistent with participation of the encoded proteins in the same pathway.

Breast Neoplasms↗
PubMed2002

Breast cancer susceptibility-A new look at an old model.

A polygenic model in which many individually weak genes combine multiplicately to cause a 50-fold range of risk in the population explains several puzzling aspects of familial breast cancer epidemiology, including the very high risk in some families and the failure to identify important new genes since the discovery of BRCA1 and BRCA2.

Breast Neoplasms↗
PubMed1982

Propaganda wars.

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International Cooperation↗