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K H Teigen

Publications and source records attributed to K H Teigen.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2001

The probability-outcome correspondence principle: a dispositional view of the interpretation of probability statements.

This article presents a framework for lay people's internal representations of probabilities, which supposedly reflect the strength of underlying dispositions, or propensities, associated with the predicted event. From this framework, we derive the probability-outcome correspondence principle, which asserts that strong dispositions should lead to (1) strong (forceful) and (2) immediate outcomes and, hence, be characterized by high probabilities. In contrast, weak dispositions lead to (1) weak (fragile) and (2) delayed outcomes and are thus associated with low probabilities. We describe six experiments designed to test the correspondence principle. In the final discussion, we examine the implications of the proposed framework, from both a normative and a descriptive viewpoint.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

Why is p = .90 better than p = .70? Preference for definitive predictions by lay consumers of probability judgements.

What do people regard as an informative and valuable probability statement? This article reports four experiments that show participants to have a clear preference for more extreme and higher probabilities over less extreme and lower ones. This pattern emerged in Experiment 1, in which no context was provided, and was further explored in Experiment 2 within a positive and a negative context. The findings were further confirmed in Experiment 3, which employed a Bayesian framework with revisions of opinions. Finally, Experiment 4 showed how preference for high probabilities can lead people to prefer an overconfident to a more well-calibrated (accurate) forecaster. The results are interpreted as manifestations of a search for definitive predictions principle, which asserts that high probabilities are preferred to medium ones and often favored over the corresponding complementary low probabilities on the basis of their capacity to predict the occurrence of single outcomes.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Hazards mean luck: counterfactual thinking in reports of dangerous situations and careless behavior.

It has been shown (Teigen, 1995) that experiences of "luck" in daily life are dependent upon the existence a worse and close hypothetical (counterfactual) outcome, rather than upon a positive evaluation of what actually happened. The present investigation focuses on the inverse relationship, namely whether a situation with a negative outcome close at hand will be perceived as lucky. To test this hypothesis, students were asked to describe dangerous situations (Experiment 1) and examples of careless behavior (Experiment 3) from their own lives, which subsequently were rated by the actors and by peer groups for good and bad luck, attractiveness, and for closeness and attractiveness of the counterfactual outcome. Dangerous situations and episodes involving careless behavior were generally regarded as more lucky than unlucky. Furthermore, degree of good luck was positively correlated with degree of dangerousness and with degree of carelessness. Luck was related to closeness, aversiveness, and (in Experiment 2) to estimated probability of the counterfactual outcome. It is concluded that luck is primarily determined by negative outcomes that did not happen, and thus a frequent by-product of risk taking and risk exposure.

Humans↗