[Retrospective assessment of causative factors in disease].
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to K Magnus.
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In four Dutch communities, Zeist, De Bilt, Driebergen, and Doorn (total population, 111,000 inhabitants), all patients who suffered acute coronary events between July 1970 and March 1974 were recorded. By combining data from this study with data from the 1971 national census of the Netherlands, it was possible to demonstrate that the incidence of acute coronary events is twice as high for self-employed men as for employed men and as much as seven times as high for self-employed women as for housewives. The incidence of acute coronary events is practically the same for self-employed women aged 45-69 years as for men of the same age in the general population. Men aged 35-64 years whose nature is such that they feel driven to do all their work with great intensity and against the clock ("self-driven men") suffer myocardial infarction seven times as frequently as others and are 2.4 times as likely to die of fatal coronary attack. Only 10% of the self-employed male referents, but 50% of the self-employed male cases, consider themselves self-driven. On the other hand, experiences of excessive working hours and time pressures are not related to the incidence of acute coronary events. These results were not influenced by and were independent of other known risk indicators.
Epidemiologic studies have documented a rapid rise in the mortality and incidence of malignant melanoma of the skin in many countries. This paper presents an analysis of malignant melanoma time trends in data from the Norwegian Cancer Registry, 1953-1978, by subsite and sex. The purpose of this study is to quantify previous qualitative analysis of the same data, mainly to distinguish birth cohort effects from time period effects. This analysis shows that time trends in malignant melanoma in Norway can be explained economically by a common age effect and a separate cohort effect for each subsite in both sexes or alternatively, by a common cohort effect but different age effects for each sex and subsite. In neither case is a time period effect required. Mathematical modelling can never fully explain any situation exactly and it is more than likely that the increases observed have been produced by a measure of both extreme descriptions. The different cohort effects and age effects are discussed in terms of their implications for etiology.
In a previous report (Pedersen et al., 1973) an excess risk of respiratory cancer among Norwegian nickel workers was demonstrated. The number of cancer cases was relatively small for the study of temporal changes in exposure. In this report the number of cancer cases increased by 70% through an extended follow-up to 1979, and the results published previously were confirmed. Data on smoking habits of the employees at the nickel refinery have now become available. The interaction between smoking and occupational nickel exposure is assessed by comparing the excess risk of lung cancer caused by smoking in the study group and in a sample of the general population. It is shown that the interaction is closer to being additive than multiplicative. This observation has methodological implications for studying temporal changes in occupational exposure. These implications are discussed. No substantial reduction in occupational exposure at the nickel refinery can be observed as far as lung cancer is concerned. For nasal cancer, however, the risk is much smaller among those employed around 1960 than among those employed around 1930. The difference in trend of occupational risk for the two types of cancer cannot be explained by the data presented.
The study comprises 7,410 male employees from the Norwegian primary aluminium industry, and presents overall mortality as well as cancer incidence. During the period 1953-79, 428 new cases of cancer were observed compared to the expected number of 412.2. The only statistically significant difference for the four investigated plants combined was cancer of the lung with 57 observed against 35.9 expected cases. The increased risk was almost solely confined to two subgroups in processing departments; workers with a short duration of employment and workers with a very long duration of employment in the older plants. These results were difficult to interpret because of the problems in selecting the appropriate reference population for estimation of expected number of cases of lung cancer. Furthermore, the individual occupational histories were incomplete and there was no information on smoking habits. In order to determine whether there is an excess risk for workers with long periods of employment in the newer plants, it is necessary to wait for another 10-20 years, when more conclusive data will become available.
Incidence data on malignant melanoma of the skin in Norway from 1955-1977, comprising a total of 5108 new cases, were analyzed according to cohort, sex, age, and primary tumor site. A continuous increase in incidence of approximately 7% per year was observed for both sexes during the study period. For trunk and lower limb melanomas, the increase and cohort variations in incidence were much greater than for face and neck melanoma. A difference between these site groups was also observed in the shape of the cohort curves of age-specific rates. This indicated that the trend in carcinogenic exposure through life was different for the face--neck and the trunk--lower limb. For the generations born 1930-1949, the incidence of malignant melanoma per area unit of skin was greater for the trunk and lower limb than for the face--neck. It is suggested that not only the cumulated dose, but also the intensity of solar radiation may be significant in the cause of malignant melanoma.
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A case-control study including 78 patients with malignant melanoma of the skin and 131 controls with the diagnoses of malignant lymphoma, testicular cancer or bone and soft-tissue sarcoma, was performed at the Norwegian Radium Hospital 1974-1975. The questionnaire contained questions for evaluating the comparability between cases and controls, and questions bearing on the relation between sun exposure and malignant melanoma. No essential difference between cases and controls was found as regards hair and eye colour, time spent outdoors during leisure, and degree of solar exposure. The melanoma patients liked sunbathing less than controls, worked more outdoors, more often went to Southern Europe for sunbathing and more often used sun lotions. These differences, however, were not clearly statistically significant. Highly significant differences were demonstrated as regards the tolerance of sun exposure and propensity to freckling. The melanoma patients tolerated sun exposure less well and freckled more easily than the controls. Although attempts were made to eliminate bias, there are still limitations and loop-holes in the study, and the relative risks demonstrated are not large enough to be of great immediate practical or scientific value. It seems justified, however, to advise persons with a low sun exposure tolerance to be cautious in following the sun-tan-demanding fashions. The study may also provide certain clues for the planning of future epidemiological and clinical studies regarding the etiology of malignant melanoma.
The association between acute coronary events (ACE) and cigarette or cigar smoking was evaluated in a case-referent study. The association was apparent for cigarette smokers of one and two packs daily. An association could be shown for cigar smoking also, with no appreciable difference between inhalers and non-inhalers. Cigarette smoking was related more strongly to rapidly fatal than to nonfatal ACE, especially in the younger age categories.
The case-referent study reported here investigates the relationship between acute coronary events (ACE) and sustained light physical exercise, mainly leisure-time walking, cycling, or gardening (WCG). These activities are classified as habitual WCG (greater than 8 months/year), seasonal WCG (4--8 months), or occasional WCG (less than 4 months), each category being further subdivided according to the number of hours a week: less than 4 hours, 4--7 hours, or greater than 7 hours. A significant negative association is found between ACE and habitual WCG. No such relationship is evident between ACE and seasonal WCG, however, seasonal WCG being equally frequent (27%) in both cases and referents. These observations may indicate that any effect on the incidence of acute coronary events that is caused by walking, cycling, or gardening is neutralized if these activities are interrupted for several months of the year. The negative association between habitual WCG and ACE does not depend on the number of hours a week devoted to SCG and is not enhanced by more vigorous additional exercise. The fatality of ACE (death rate within 4 weeks) is significantly higher in the least active group (WCG less than 4 months/year).
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The prognosis in malignant melanoma of the skin has been studied in relation to stage, anatomical site, sex, age and period of diagnosis. A total of 2,956 cases diagnosed in Norway 1953-1971 were analyzed. The final date of follow-up was December 31, 1973. The disease is amenable to cure for localized as well as nonlocalized cases, the cure rates being about 60% for the former and 15% for the latter group. Even within the group of localized cases large deviations in prognosis were found, the survival rates varying according to anatomical site, sex and age. The interaction between sex and age in prognosis is discussed in detail. A rise in survival was observed from the period of diagnosis 1953-1963 to that of 1964-1971. Detailed analysis points to earlier diagnosis or therapeutic progress in the later study period rather than a lower degree of malignancy of registered cases.
Incidence of, mortality from and fatality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and fatal attack of presumed coronary origin (FCA) were registered between July 1970 and March 1974 in a well-defined Dutch countryside population. Patients with a documented previous AMI or aged 70 or older were excluded. AMI (431 cases) and FCA (124 cases) were considered separately. No differences in coronary history profile, age or sex distribution could be demonstrated. However, the period of premonitory symptoms preceding FCA was at a 5% level significantly shorter than in AMI, provided that the unstable angina was the first symptom of IHD. The combined fatality rate of AMI and FCA, counting death during the first 28 days only, was 25% under age 55 and 32% in age group 55-69 yr. None of the 171 cases under age 55 who survived the first 24 h died in the following 4 weeks, whereas 20 out of 384 in the older age group did: a significant difference at a 5% level. The incidence and mortality rates are presented for both AMI and FCA, subdivided in the age groups 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65-69, per 1000 person years. The incidence was 1, 5, 10, 14 in males, and 0, 1, 2, 6 in females, respectively. Mortality was 0, 1, 3, 5 in males, and 0, 0, 1, 3 in females. The set-up of the survey, the diagnostic criteria and the comparability with recent studies are discussed.
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In relation to cancer, monitoring, i.e. "continuing observation in order to decide when changes in incidence or mortality may have occurred" can be of two types: (a) passive (or routine) monitoring using routinely collected cancer statistics for populations in general (b) active (or exposure-oriented) monitoring in which the cancer experience of groups with specific exposures is compared with that of the non-exposed. The advantages and disadvantages of mortality and morbidity data for passive monitoring are listed. It is concluded that passive monitoring can rarely do more than indicate areas for further study. The potential of active monitoring is examined by consideration of industrial and occupational exposures, the follow-up of persons on prolonged drug therapy (including transplacental effects) and changes in cancer risk following migration. As such studies are often univariate, it may not be possible to allow for the effect of other factors, and confirmatory studies will often be required. It is belived that priority should currently be given to monitoring occupational exposures, particularly those involving chemicals shown by animals studies to have carcinogenic activity. To monitor everybody for everything will result in nothing. The social responsibilities which devolve on monitors, the authorities, both sides of industry and the general public as a result of the establishment of monitoring systems are discussed. It is concluded that monitoring, active or passive, does not represent a quick road to the identification of environmental carcinogens but can point to products or processes likely to have a cancer risk - a risk which would have to be confirmed or otherwise by other methods.