Biomedical subjects

K McCaul

Publications and source records attributed to K McCaul.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Adverse effects to quality of life arising from treatment can recover with intermittent androgen suppression in men with prostate cancer.

Health-related quality of life (HQOL) research is a means of broadening the assessment of treatment effects. This longitudinal study investigated the dynamic change to quality of life (QOL) and testosterone dependant physiology in men commencing an intermittent maximal androgen blockade program (IMAB). Two hundred and fifty men were accrued to the multi-centre study of IMAB (Flutamide 250 mg TDS, Leuprolide 22.5 mg depot) ceasing treatment after 9 months if PSA <4 ng/ml, and restarting when PSA >20 ng/ml. QOL was assessed every 3 months for 30 months using the EORTC QLQ-C30 and EORTC QLQ-PR25 module. Data completion for the whole study was 90%. At baseline, our cohort was less symptomatic and had better function than the EORTC reference cohort, which may be related to a shift in clinical practice with time. Testosterone suppression (AS) lead to a significant reduction in global HQOL and deterioration in most function and symptom scales. During the off period, there was a trend of progressive improvement in HQOL that paralleled testosterone recovery but was slower than the rate of deterioration during the treatment phase. Maximum recovery of HQOL occurred most frequently by months 9-12. Testosterone recovery was slower and less complete in older men, and lead to concomitant poorer HOQL recovery. Whilst the magnitude of mean change to scale scores was small, there was a consistent and simultaneous deterioration during maximal androgen blockade (MAB) and improvement during androgen recovery. Older men are more likely to show an impaired testosterone recovery, and this was paralleled by a slower HQOL recovery. Newer methods of analysis to describe results in a way that has meaning to the individual patient are warranted.

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Population-based study of prognostic factors in stage II colonic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II colorectal cancer may be considered for patients whose tumours have poor prognostic features. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of commonly reported clinical and pathological features of stage II colonic cancer. METHODS: A population-based observational study of all patients with stage II colonic cancer diagnosed in the state of Western Australia from 1993 to 2003 was performed. A total of 1306 patients treated by surgery alone were identified, with a median follow-up of 59 (range 0-145) months. RESULTS: Multivariable analysis revealed that the only independent prognostic factors for disease-specific survival were stage T4 (hazard ratio (HR) 1.75 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 1.32 to 2.32); P < 0.001) and vascular invasion (HR 1.63 (95 per cent c.i. 1.15 to 2.30); P < 0.001). In younger patients (aged 75 years or less), who are more likely to be considered for chemotherapy, these two features showed independent prognostic significance but with higher HR values (1.96 for stage T4 and 2.73 for vascular invasion). Stage T4 and/or the presence of vascular invasion identified a 'poor' prognostic group, comprising 26.6 per cent of younger patients and with a 5-year survival rate of 71.2 per cent. The remaining 'good' prognostic group had a survival rate of 84.3 per cent at 5 years' follow-up. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the importance of accurate pathological assessment of tumour stage and vascular invasion for the prognostic stratification of patients with stage II colonic cancer. The results provide clarification of guidelines for the management of stage II disease in relation to recommendations for chemotherapy.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Ki-ras mutation type and the survival benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy in Dukes' C colorectal cancer.

Ki-ras mutations are associated with an increased risk of relapse and death in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, with some mutations being more aggressive than others. The present study examined the predictive value of different Ki-ras mutation types in a retrospective series of 430 Dukes' C stage CRC patients, of whom 208 (48%) had received adjuvant chemotherapy with 5-fluorouracil/levamisole or 5-fluorouracil/leucovorin. A total of 140 mutations were detected, the majority (58%, 81/140) being glycine to aspartate mutations in codons 12 and 13. Glycine to valine mutations in codon 12 (14%, 20/140) and other less frequent, non-specified mutation types (28%, 39/140) accounted for the remaining mutations. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that both Ki-ras wild-type and mutant patient groups derived significant survival benefit from chemotherapy. However, when patients were stratified according to the type of mutation, those with non-aspartate mutations appeared to gain more benefit from this treatment than those with aspartate mutations. Multivariate analysis that included other possible predictive factors in Dukes' C CRC (tumour site, patient sex, TP53 mutation) demonstrated that non-aspartate mutations in particular were associated with a significant survival benefit from chemotherapy (HR=0.11, 95% CI: 0.04-0.30, p<0.001). These results suggest that the type of Ki-ras mutation could be a clinically useful molecular marker for the identification of CRC subgroups that are likely to benefit from 5-fluorouracil-based adjuvant chemotherapy.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Prevalence of non-specific health symptoms in South Australia.

Non-specific health symptoms are commonly reported in communities exposed to environmental hazards. However these symptoms commonly occur in the general community as a result of lifestyle factors, illness such as cold and allergy, medical treatment, in addition to environmental and occupational exposures. This paper describes the prevalence of non-specific health symptoms in South Australia. A cross-sectional survey of 3016 persons aged 15 years and over across the State was undertaken. Stuffy nose was the most commonly reported symptoms, with a 2-week prevalence of 46%. Headaches, unusual tiredness, cough, sore throat and itchy eyes were each experienced by at least one in five persons in the previous 2-week period. Symptom reporting was greater among females compared with males and higher in younger age groups. These rates provide a useful reference for rates normally found in a community exposed to a broad range of personal, environmental and occupational factors that may lead to these symptoms.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Characteristics of responding-, nonresponding- and refusing-parents in an adolescent lifestyle choice study.

The acquisition of a random sample is one of the many methodological problems that arise when conducting research with adolescent populations. Frequently, due to ethical considerations associated with collecting data from adolescents, active parental consent procedures are required. The current study examined characteristics of parents who consented, refused consent, or did not respond to an active consent request for their children to participate in a large-scale study of adolescent lifestyle behaviors. Results indicated nonresponding-parents were more likely to be employed than consenting-parents. Further, differences were found for a number of attitudinal variables and about the importance of adolescent research. There were significant differences between refusing-parents, and consenting- and nonresponding-parents who were similar in their attitudes toward adolescent research. The findings suggest that nonresponding-parents are characteristically more similar to consenting-parents than to refusing-parents, which supports the use of passive consent procedures as a reasonable alternative to requiring active parental consent in adolescent research.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

P53 alteration and microsatellite instability have predictive value for survival benefit from chemotherapy in stage III colorectal carcinoma.

PURPOSE: We recently presented evidence for tumor site and gender-specificity in the survival benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy in Stage III colorectal cancer (CRC). In the current study, we examined whether p53 alteration or the microsatellite instability (MSI) phenotype provide additional predictive information in CRC patients. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: A retrospective series of 891 Stage III CRC patients with negative surgical margins was investigated. Thirty percent (270 of 891) received postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy with curative intent and comprising of 5-fluorouracil/levamisole. Adjuvant treatment and nontreatment patient groups were well matched for tumor site, grade, p53 alterations, and MSI. Surgical tumor specimens were investigated for p53 overexpression using immunohistochemistry and for p53 mutation and MSI using single-strand conformation polymorphism analysis. The predictive value of these markers was evaluated by comparing the survival of adjuvant-treated and nonadjuvant treated patients. RESULTS: A strong inverse correlation was observed between p53 alteration and MSI (P < 0.0001). In univariate analysis, the factors of sex, site, p53 alteration, and MSI were each strong predictors of a survival benefit from chemotherapy. Multivariate analysis revealed that chemotherapy provided maximal survival benefit for female patients (P = 0.005) and for patients whose tumors contained normal p53 (P = 0.041). Males whose tumors contained a p53 alteration and were negative for MSI appeared not to benefit from chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that p53 alteration and MSI could be clinically useful molecular predictive markers for the identification of CRC patients who might benefit from 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy.

Adult↗

PubMed2000

Restrictions on smoking at home and urinary cotinine levels among children with asthma.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which various levels of restrictions on smoking in the home may be associated with children's exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). METHODS: The methodology consisted of a cross-sectional survey involving 249 children with asthma aged 1 to 11 attending hospital outpatient clinics, with at least one parent who smoked, linked to the child's urinary cotinine to creatinine ratios (CCR). RESULTS: After adjustment for child's age, mother's smoking status, and total parental daily cigarette consumption, a total ban was associated with significantly lower urinary CCR levels (7.6 nmol/mmol) than bans with exceptions or limited smoking in the home. Where exceptions to bans were made (14.9 nmol/mmol), children's urinary CCR levels were no different from homes in which smoking was allowed in rooms the child rarely frequented (14.1 nmol/mmol). These two intermediate levels of restriction were in turn associated with significantly lower CCR levels than unrestricted smoking in the home (26.0 nmol/mmol). CONCLUSIONS: Making exceptions to bans on smoking at home measurably undermines the protective effect of a ban. However, making some exceptions to a ban and limiting smoking to rooms where the child rarely goes may result in reduced exposure to ETS, compared with unrestricted smoking.

Asthma↗

PubMed2000

Hip fracture rates in South Australia: into the next century.

BACKGROUND: Fractures of the femoral neck already represent a major public health problem in Australia. This situation is set to worsen as the population ages. The present study estimates the number of patients over 50 years of age with femoral neck fractures that is expected to impact on the South Australian healthcare service into the next century. METHODS: Population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 1996 census were combined with age- and gender-specific incidence rates for fractures of the femoral neck for persons over the age of 50 in South Australia. Projections for the expected number of hip fractures in this State were then calculated. RESULTS: Assuming there are no changes in the age- and gender-specific incidence of fracture rates, the number of fractures in South Australia is estimated to increase by approximately 66% by the year 2021 and 190% by 2051. CONCLUSION: Based on the population projections and the assumption that conditions contributing to hip fractures remain constant, the number of fractured neck of femurs will increase in far greater proportion than the overall population in the next century. The results of the present study indicate the serious implications for the South Australian healthcare system if there is no reduction in incidence rates.

Age Factors↗

PubMed1999

A simple index using video image analysis to predict disease outcome in primary breast cancer.

Image analysis was used to investigate the prognostic significance of immunostaining for oestrogen receptor (ER), p53 tumour-suppressor protein and tumour cell proliferation (MIB-1) in a random cohort of 200 primary breast cancer patients with between 4 and 7 years of clinical follow-up. Image measurements of the percentage of immunopositive cancer cell nuclei (% positive nuclear area) were recorded for the above tumour features for each patient. Assessment of relative risk using Cox's univariate analysis indicated that tumour size, number of cancer-involved nodes, MIB-1 and ER % positive nuclear area were significantly associated with breast cancer disease outcome, i.e., relapse-free survival and overall survival. In multivariate analysis, tumour size, number of involved nodes, ER and MIB-1 % positive nuclear area were retained as independent predictors of prognosis, depending on the image measurement cut-point used. A prognostic model, which can be used without reference to nodal involvement, was constructed for tumour size, ER cut-point of 30% positive nuclear area and MIB-1 cut-point of 10% positive nuclear area. Kaplan-Meier analysis of this image-based prognostic index identified 4 risk groups with predicted 5-year overall survival rates of 93%, 83%, 76.7% and 61.5%. We conclude that image measurements of ER and proliferative rate can be combined with tumour size to construct a prognostic index which reliably predicts disease outcome in primary breast cancer without knowledge of the nodal status of the patient.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Elevated levels of peritumoral chondroitin sulfate are predictive of poor prognosis in patients treated by radical prostatectomy for early-stage prostate cancer.

The disease course of localized prostate cancer is highly variable, and patients potentially curable by aggressive management are not readily identified by current clinical practice. Chondroitin sulfate (CS) glycosaminoglycan is a candidate biomarker as elevated levels of CS in peritumoral stroma of prostate cancer have been associated with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) failure. Immunoreactive CS was measured using image analysis of archived radical prostatectomy tissues, obtained from 157 men with a median of 47 months (range, 16-111 months) clinical follow-up. CS level, Gleason score, and preoperative serum PSA levels were independent predictors of PSA failure by Cox's multivariate analysis. Patients with low CS levels had significantly fewer PSA failures after radical prostatectomy than patients with high levels of CS (Kaplan-Meier plot; 32% PSA failures at 5 years for CS mean integrated absorbance cut point < 7.0 versus 50% for CS > or = 7.0, P = 0.0001). In the subgroup of patients with preoperative serum PSA levels < 10 ng/ml, CS was particularly useful in discriminating retrospectively those patients most suited for surgery (Kaplan-Meier plot; 14% PSA failures at 5 years for CS mean integrated absorbance cut point < 7.0 versus 47% for CS > or = 7.0, P = 0.0001). We conclude that measurements of CS level can assist in predicting patient outcome after surgery. Additionally, our data suggest that the combination of CS and PSA measurements may improve outcome prediction for patients with intermediate Gleason scores.

Adenocarcinoma↗

PubMed1999

Lack of association between duration of breast-feeding or introduction of cow's milk and development of islet autoimmunity.

The hypothesis that early exposure to cow's milk or lack of breast-feeding predisposes to type 1 diabetes remains controversial. We aimed to determine prospectively the relationship of, first, duration of exclusive breast-feeding and total duration of breast-feeding, and second, introduction of cow's milk protein as infant formula, cow's milk, or dairy products, to the development of islet antibodies in early life. Some 317 children with a first-degree relative with type 1 diabetes were followed prospectively from birth for 29 months (4-73). Mothers kept a home diary and answered infant feeding questionnaires at 6-month intervals. No systematic feeding advice was given. Insulin autoantibodies (normal range <5.5%), anti-GAD antibodies (<5.0 U), and anti-IA2 antibodies (<3.0 U) were measured at 6-month intervals. Cox proportional hazards model of survival analysis detected no significant difference between children who did not develop islet antibodies (225 of 317 [71%]), children with one islet antibody raised once (52 of 317 [16.4%]), children with one antibody raised repeatedly (18 of 317 [5.7%]), or children with two or more antibodies raised (22 of 317 [6.9%]), in terms of duration of exclusive breast-feeding, total duration of breast-feeding, or introduction of cow's milk-based infant formulas, cow's milk, or dairy products (relative risk: 0.91-1.09). Four of the children with two or more islet antibodies developed type 1 diabetes. We conclude that there is no prospective association between duration of breast-feeding or introduction of cow's milk and the development of islet autoimmunity in high-risk children.

Aging↗

PubMed1998

Tumor microvascularity has no independent prognostic significance for breast cancer.

There is a continuing controversy regarding the value of estimating degree of intra-tumor vascularity to predict prognosis in breast cancer. In order to resolve this controversy, primary tumors from a cohort of 519 women with breast cancer were analysed to determine whether association exists between degree of vascularity and prognosis. Tumor vascularity was estimated by immunohistochemistry using a monoclonal antibody to the antigen CD31. The tumor area showing the highest degree of vascularity was chosen to score the number of microvessels per unit area. Issues such as the reproducibility of the microvascularity score and its association with tumor parameters including size, histological grade and hormone receptor levels were investigated. Although previously agreed criteria were used, consensus between two pathologists' estimations of the degree of vascularity was only moderate. There was no statistically significant association between tumor vascularity score and other currently established parameters of prognosis. After a median follow up of 71 months for axillary node negative patients, there was no association between tumor vascularity score and increased risk of relapse or death from breast cancer. In axillary node positive patients, tumor vascularity score was associated with increased risk of relapse and death from breast cancer. This association was not however independent of other established parameters of prognosis.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

Coverage of cancer patients by hospice services, South Australia, 1990 to 1993.

A population-based observational study of South Australian cancer patients was used to identify: the level of coverage of cancer patients by hospice services; the types of patients who miss out on hospice care; and the place of death of hospice and other cancer patients. We reviewed patients who died in 1990 and 1993 using the Central Cancer Registry database together with an identifier of hospice involvement. In 1990, 56 per cent of cancer patients who died had care from a hospice service, and this proportion increased to 63 per cent in 1993. Elderly patients, rural residents and those with a haematological malignancy were less likely than other patients to receive care from a hospice service, while patients aged between 40 and 60 years, longer survivors and those born in the United Kingdom and Europe were more likely to receive hospice care. Hospice involvement increased significantly between 1990 and 1993 for patients who died at home (59 to 73 per cent), in nursing homes (20 to 45 per cent), private hospitals (33 to 52 per cent) and public hospitals (48 to 55 per cent), but the proportion of patients with hospice involvement who died in country hospitals remained at 45 per cent. The increase in hospice coverage of terminal cancer patients reflects the continued integration of hospice care into the mainstream of health care delivery. The types of patients who miss out on hospice services should be given special consideration in the future planning of terminal care services.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

Elevated levels of versican but not decorin predict disease progression in early-stage prostate cancer.

Patients with clinically localized prostate cancer who might be cured by aggressive management are not easily identified using current clinical information. Additional, more accurate, biomarkers of tumor behavior need to be identified to improve clinical outcome. Our previous studies indicated that the concentration of the glycosaminoglycan chondroitin sulfate in prostatic stroma might be a useful biomarker of disease progression in early-stage prostate cancer. In this study, two chondroitin sulfate proteoglycans, versican and decorin, were investigated. Versican and decorin were immunolocalized to the periacinar and peritumoral fibromuscular stroma in sections of nonmalignant and malignant human prostate tissues. Video image measurements indicated that the concentrations of both proteoglycans were increased in the prostatic tissue of men with early-stage prostate cancer compared with tissue from men without cancer (P = 0.0006). Cox's univariate analysis indicated that increases in versican concentration but not in that of decorin were associated with increased risk of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression. Versican concentration was compared with other clinical or biological features of prognosis in two-variable regression analyses. Versican and serum PSA concentrations were independent predictors of PSA progression. Versican was a stronger prognostic factor than tumor grade, and it could predict outcome for patients with moderately differentiated tumors. Patients with low versican concentration had significantly better progression-free survival than patients with high levels of versican (Kaplan-Meier plot, 89% versus 27% PSA progression-free at 5 years, respectively; P = 0.0001). We conclude that the measurement of prostatic concentrations of versican, a molecule with reported anticellular adhesive properties, may be a useful marker of disease progression in patients with early-stage prostate cancer and that further study of versican in other patient cohorts is warranted.

Aged↗

PubMed1998

Analysis of p53 gene mutation by polymerase chain reaction-single strand conformation polymorphism provides independent prognostic information in node-negative breast cancer.

Controversy continues regarding the prognostic utility of detection of p53 gene abnormalities in node-negative breast cancer. To resolve this, we used a rapid and nonisotopic PCR-single strand conformation polymorphism method to screen for mutations in exons 4-8 of the p53 gene in primary tumors from 422 node-negative breast cancer patients. The prevalence of p53 mutation in the exons tested was 18%. p53 mutation was significantly associated with several markers of poor prognosis including larger tumor size, high tumor grade, low hormone receptor content, increased expression of MIB-1 (Ki-67), amplification of the HER-2/neu oncogene, and accumulation of the p53 protein. After a median duration follow-up period of 74 months, the parameters of tumor diameter > or =20 mm, HER-2/neu oncogene amplification, and p53 mutation were found to be associated with a statistically significant shortened duration of disease-free and overall survival, but not the parameters of tumor grade, hormone receptor levels, or p53 expression. The poor prognosis associated with p53 mutation was observed primarily in patients with a tumor diameter of > or =20 mm. In multivariate analysis, p53 mutation was a risk factor for increased risk of recurrence and death from breast cancer independent of tumor size, hormone receptor levels, HER-2/neu amplification, and MIB-1 expression. We conclude that a relatively simple and rapid single strand conformation polymorphism method of determining p53 mutation status in node-negative breast cancers can provide independent prognostic information.

Adult↗

PubMed1997

EMS1 amplification can occur independently of CCND1 or INT-2 amplification at 11q13 and may identify different phenotypes in primary breast cancer.

Chromosome 11q13 is amplified in about 13% of primary breast cancers. CCND1, encoding the cell cycle regulatory gene cyclin D1, and EMS1, encoding a filamentous actin binding protein, are favoured candidate onocogenes, whereas INT-2 is an unexpressed gene at this locus. In this study we tested the possibility that different regions of this large amplicon could be independently amplified and subsequently defined the phenotype of EMS1 amplified tumours in a series of 961 primary breast carcinomas. Using DNA slot blots, EMS1 was amplified in 15.2% of samples: 5.4% were coamplified for CCND1; 7.9% coamplified for INT-2 and 6.7% showed EMS1 amplification alone. The degree of amplification of CCND1 and INT-2 was highly correlated (P =0.0001). In contrast, no such relationship existed between EMS1 and CCND1 or INT-2 amplification, demonstrating independent amplification of EMS1 in 44% of amplified tumours. EMS1 amplification (> or = twofold increase in copy number) was positively correlated with patient age > or = 50 years (P = 0.025), ER positivity (P = 0.022), PgR positivity (P = 0.018), and was negatively correlated with HER-2/neu (c-erbB2) amplification (P = 0.01). In common with CCND1/INT-2, EMS1 amplification was associated with increased risk of relapse in patients with lymph node-negative disease (P = 0.028). In contrast, EMS1 and CCND1/INT-2 amplification appeared to confer different phenotypes in ER positive and negative tumours. A > or = threefold increase in EMS1 copy number was associated with an apparent increased risk of relapse and death in patients with ER negative tumours, but was without effect in ER positive tumours. In contrast, CCND1/INT-2 amplification had no effect in the patients with ER negative tumours but was associated with early relapse in ER positive patients. Thus EMS1 amplification may identify subgroups of breast cancer patients with increased probability of relapse and death distinct from those identified by CCND1/INT-2 amplification. Further studies are required to more clearly determine the functional consequences of EMS1 overexpression and a biological basis for the relationship between EMS1 amplification and phenotype in breast cancer.

Breast Neoplasms↗

PubMed1997

Progression of borderline increases in albuminuria in adolescents with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

We aimed to determine the natural history of borderline increases in albuminuria in adolescents with insulin-dependent (Type 1) diabetes mellitus (IDDM) and factors which are associated with progression to persistent microalbuminura. Fifty-five normotensive adolescents with IDDM and intermittent microalbuminura (overnight albumin excretion ratte of 20-200 micrograms min-1 on one of three consecutive timed collections, n = 29) or borderline albuminura (mean overnight albumin excretion rate of 7.2-20 micrograms min-1 on one of three consecutive timed collections, n = 30) were followed prospectively at 3 monthly intervals. The endpoint was persistent microalbuminuria defined as a minimum of three of four consecutive overnight albumin excretion rates of greater than 20 micrograms min-1. One hundred and forty-two adolescents with IDDM and normoalbuminura were also followed prospectively. Fifteen of the 59 patients (25.4%) with intermittent (9/29) or borderline (6/30) albuminura progressed to persistent microalbuminura (progressors) over 28 (15-50) months [median (range)] in comparison with two of the 142 patients with normoalbuminuria at entry (relative risk = 12.6; p = 0.001). Progressors to persistent microalbuminura were pubertal and had higher systolic (p = 0.02) and diastolic (p = 0.02) blood pressure, and HbA1c (p = 0.004) than non-progressors. All patients remained normotensive. Glomerular filtration rate, apolipoproteins, dietary phosphorus, protein and sodium intakes, and prevalence of smoking did not differ between progressors and non-progressors. Total renin was higher in the diabetic patients without a difference between progressors and non-progressors. In conclusion there is a relatively high rate of progression to persistent microalbuminuria in pubertal adolescents with borderline increases in albuminura and duration greater than 3 years. These patients require attention to minimize associated factors of poor metabolic control and higher blood pressure in the development of incipient nephropathy.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1997

A simple index to predict prognosis independent of axillary node information in breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Since the course of breast cancer is often unpredictable, we wished to develop a model using characteristics of the primary tumour alone to predict prognosis. METHODS: Several tumour features were determined, and after a median follow-up duration of 65 months, multivariate analysis identified tumour size and grade, oestrogen receptor concentration, axillary lymph node metastasis and tumour cell proliferation fraction (MIB-1 count) as being independently associated with increases in risk for both relapse and death from breast cancer. A prognostic model was constructed using tumour size and grade, oestrogen receptor concentration and MIB-1 count only. A score of 1 for each was given to tumour size > 20 mm, tumour grade 2 or 3, oestrogen receptor concentration < 10 fmol/mg cytosol protein and MIB-1 count > 9%. Five groups established by assigning a combined score of 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 for each patient were analysed for their associations with disease-free and overall survivals. RESULTS: This preliminary model predicted 5-year survival rates of 97, 91, 85, 68 and 50% for the five groups. The model was further simplified by excluding tumour grade from the analysis. The revised model identified four risk groups with predicted 5-year survival rates of 91, 86, 66 and 52%. This model, the Adelaide prognostic index, was also able to identify four risk groups in both node-negative and node-positive patients. CONCLUSIONS: The Adelaide prognostic index can be used to predict prognosis even in the absence of axillary lymph node information.

Antigens, Nuclear↗