Biomedical subjects

K Pedula

Publications and source records attributed to K Pedula.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2000

The global diabetes model: user friendly version 3.0.

The attributes of Release 3.0 of the user friendly version (UFV) of the global diabetes model (GDM) are described and documented in detail. The GDM is a continuous, stochastic microsimulation model of type 2 diabetes. Suitable for predicting the medical futures of both individuals with diabetes and representative diabetic populations, the GDM predicts medical events (complications of diabetes), survival, utilities, and medical care costs. Incidence rate functions for microvascular and macrovascular complications are based on a combination of published studies and analyses of data describing diabetic members of Kaiser Permanente Northwest Region, a non-profit group-model health maintenance organization. Active risk factors include average blood glucose (HbAlc), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), triglycerides, smoking status, and use of prophylactic aspirin. Events predicted include diabetic eye disease, diabetic nephropathy, peripheral neuropathy amputation, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral artery disease, congestive heart failure, coronary artery surgery, coronary angioplasty, and death.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2000

The Mt. Hood challenge: cross-testing two diabetes simulation models.

Starting from identical patients with type 2 diabetes, we compared the 20-year predictions of two computer simulation models, a 1998 version of the IMIB model and version 2.17 of the Global Diabetes Model (GDM). Primary measures of outcome were 20-year cumulative rates of: survival, first (incident) acute myocardial infarction (AMI), first stroke, proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR), macro-albuminuria (gross proteinuria, or GPR), and amputation. Standardized test patients were newly diagnosed males aged 45 or 75, with high and low levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA(1c)), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and serum lipids. Both models generated realistic results and appropriate responses to changes in risk factors. Compared with the GDM, the IMIB model predicted much higher rates of mortality and AMI, and fewer strokes. These differences can be explained by differences in model architecture (Markov vs. microsimulation), different evidence bases for cardiovascular prediction (Framingham Heart Study cohort vs. Kaiser Permanente patients), and isolated versus interdependent prediction of cardiovascular events. Compared with IMIB, GDM predicted much higher lifetime costs, because of lower mortality and the use of a different costing method. It is feasible to cross-validate and explicate dissimilar diabetes simulation models using standardized patients. The wide differences in the model results that we observed demonstrate the need for cross-validation. We propose to hold a second 'Mt Hood Challenge' in 2001 and invite all diabetes modelers to attend.

Albuminuria↗

PubMed1998

Lactic acidosis rates in type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To provide a context for the interpretation of lactic acidosis risk among patients using metformin, we measured rates of lactic acidosis in patients with type 2 diabetes before metformin was approved for use in the U.S. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using electronic databases of hospital discharge diagnoses and laboratory results maintained by a large, nonprofit health maintenance organization (HMO). we identified possible lactic acidosis events in three geographically and racially diverse populations with type 2 diabetes. We then reviewed hard-copy clinical records to confirm and describe each event and determine its likely cause(s). RESULTS: From >41.000 person-years of experience, we found four confirmed, three possible, and three borderline cases of lactic acidosis. In each case, we identified at least one severe medical condition that could have caused the acidosis. The annual confirmed event rate is similar to published rates of metformin-associated lactic acidosis. CONCLUSIONS: Lactic acidosis occurs regularly, although infrequently, among persons with type 2 diabetes, at rates similar to its occurrence among metformin users. The medical conditions with which both metformin-associated and naturally occurring lactic acidosis co-occur are also its potential causes. The observed association between metformin and lactic acidosis may be coincidental rather than causal. This possibility merits further study

Acidosis, Lactic↗