The Ulcerated Leg Severity Assessment score for prediction of venous leg ulcer healing.
BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to create a reliable scoring system for the prediction of venous ulcer healing in patients treated with compression. METHODS: A prospective baseline study to identify risk factors for venous ulcer healing was undertaken between March 1999 and August 2001. All patients were treated with multilayer compression. A number of variables were related to 24-week healing rates. A Cox regression model was used to identify risk factors that predicted ulcer healing, from which a scoring system was developed and validated prospectively between February 2004 and March 2005. RESULTS: In the baseline study of 229 patients, patient age, ulcer chronicity and venous refill time (VRT) of 20 s or less were identified as risk factors. Using these factors and hazard ratios from the Cox regression analysis, the following formula was devised: Ulcerated Leg Severity Assessment (ULSA) score=age+chronicity-50 (when VRT is greater than 20 s). Patients with an ULSA score of 50 or less had higher 24-week ulcer healing rates than those with higher scores in both the baseline study (P<0.001, log rank test) and the validation study performed in 86 patients (P=0.007, log rank test). CONCLUSION: The ULSA score may help to identify patients with venous ulcers unlikely to respond to conventional treatment who could be offered alternative therapy.