Stochastic growth models with logistic mean population.
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Birth Rate↗
Biomedical subjects
K Tognetti
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Some extensions of the Keyfitz momentum relationship.
A stable population, such that the total birthrate B(t) = Boerot, is abruptly altered by modifying the age-specific birth rate, m(x). The survivor function remains unaltered. The modified population ultimately settles down to a stable behavior, such that B(t) = B1er1t. It is shown that B1/Bo = (Ro-R1)/¿e1(ro-r1)RoZ1], where Ro, R1 are the net reproduction rates before and after the change, and Za = expected age giving birth for the stable population after the change. The age structure and transients resulting from the change are also described. The effect of an abrupt change in the survivor function l(x) is also investigated for the simple case where the change is caused by altering l(x) to e-lambdaxl(x). It is shown that the above ratio becomes B1/Bo = N1/No = [1 - zota o e-kxg(x)dx]/Z1lambda, where N refers to the numbers in the population, k = ro + lambda, and g(x) = m(x)l(x), the value before the change. A measure for the reproductive worth of the population is also established.
Birth Rate↗