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Biomedical subjects

K W Wachter

Publications and source records attributed to K W Wachter.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

Correlation bias in U.S. census adjustment.

One form of error that can affect census adjustments is correlation bias, reflecting people who are doubly missing--from the census and from the adjusted counts as well. This article presents a method for estimating the total national number of doubly-missing people and their distribution by race and sex. Application to the 1990 U.S. census adjustment leads to an estimate of 3 million doubly-missing people. Correlation bias is likely to be a serious problem for census adjustment in 2000. The methods of this article are well suited for measuring its magnitude.

Bias↗

Evolutionary demographic models for mortality plateaus.

Plateaus in the age pattern of hazard functions at extreme ages have been discovered in large populations of medflies, Drosophila, nematodes, and people. Mueller and Rose [(1996) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 93, 15249-15253] have proposed several age-structured demographic models to represent effects of mutation accumulation and antagonistic pleiotropy on randomly evolving schedules of demographic rates. They assert that "evolutionary theory [as embodied in their models] predicts late-life mortality plateaus." This paper defines a class of Markovian models that includes those of Mueller and Rose and obtains a characterization of the possible limiting states. For the basic model, the result implies that schedules with late-life mortality plateaus above a minimal threshold are not limiting states. The models fail, but not for reasons previously conjectured. Transient states, visited early by the process, do display mortality plateaus. Other models from this class may have a role to play in reconciling observed plateaus with evolutionary theory.

Animals↗

Kinship resources for the elderly.

As population ageing strains social insurance systems, cohorts whose own fertility was low will be reaching elderly status, leaving close biological kin in short supply. However, there is a countervailing trend, inasmuch as burgeoning divorce, remarriage and family blending have expanded the numbers and varieties of step-kin and other non-standard kinship ties. Methods of computer microsimulation in conjunction with richer sample surveys can help us to foresee the contours of kin numbers and kinship relations in the future. Prime areas include the likely frequency of kin-deprived elderly, the overlap with economic deprivation and the interaction between kin frequency and intensity of contact. Step-ties may be weaker but nonetheless critical in raising the probability of at least one compatible member with whom one can choose to maintain contact and rely on. Kinship networks extended through half- and step-links, by stretching across racial and economic lines, may promote social cohesion.

Aged↗

Synchronization of hormonal time series: analytical approaches.

Comparison of the patterns of episodic secretion of two or more hormones measured simultaneously often suggests that peak levels tend to occur at around the same time. This visual impression can be misleading, however, as some peaks will occur simultaneously due to chance alone. Traditional cross-correlation methods are suitable for evaluating linkages among circadian and other smoothly varying rhythms, but are less well suited to correlating ultradian peaks. This paper proposes a method which entails identifying peaks of hormone secretion as discrete events in several different series, and counting the frequency of simultaneous and near-simultaneous peaks in temporal 'windows' of increasing width. The expected rates of random coincidences can be assessed by a variety of methods, including simulations and probability calculations. The method described utilizes simple techniques which make few assumptions about the character or stationarity of the series, comparing coincidence rates in the appropriately paired series with those in which a series in one subject is deliberately 'mismatched' with that of another subject. Using this approach, a significant excess of simultaneous peaks of luteinizing hormone (LH) and prolactin was found in normal subjects as compared with mismatched series (17% versus 6%; p less than 0.05). Hypogonadotrophic men treated with pulsatile gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) have an even higher coincidence rate (26%). By contrast, the rate of coincidence between pulses of LH and cortisol is not significantly greater than that which would be expected due to chance.

Circadian Rhythm↗

Methods for assessing the linkage between pulsatile hormone profiles.

Although the different anterior pituitary hormones are generally considered to be regulated independently, examination of their patterns in blood suggests that pulsatile secretion of several of these hormones may be synchronized. Traditional methods of cross-correlation analysis may not be adequate for quantifying this linkage. Since some simultaneity may arise by chance, expected rates of random coincidences must also be estimated to determine if apparent concordance rates significantly exceed those due to chance. A method of estimating linkage by counting simultaneous and near-simultaneous events within temporal 'windows' of varying width is proposed and tested against 11 series of luteinizing hormone (LH) and prolactin measurements from normal men. Rates of concordance in series drawn from different subjects rather than the same subject, or series scrambled in time, do not contain meaningful simultaneous events and so can be used to estimate the rate of random synchrony. By these standards, a clear excess of concordant prolactin and luteinizing hormone (LH) peaks was observed in normal men, suggesting significant physiological synchrony between these pulses of secretion. This method can be applied to a variety of hormonal systems.

Circadian Rhythm↗

U.S. births and limit cycle models.

Lee's (1974) formal demographic feedback models summarize the implications for births and age-structure of neo-Malthusian theories of baby booms such as those of Easterlin. For some parameter values, such models imply sustained cycles, so-called "limit cycles", in births. Frauenthal and Swick recently reestimated a continuous-age version of Lee's basic cohort model with U.S. series and, contrary to Lee's original findings, concluded that "limit cycles oscillations have been occurring in U.S. births." This article disputes their conclusion, ascribing it to an inconsistency in detrending procedures. Furthermore, it corrects Lee's original conclusion by showing that his alternative period labor-force feedback model, estimated from U.S. series, leads to cycles of implausibly long period. This article thus reopens the question of whether any feedback model could account for the observed cycles in U.S. births.

Adolescent↗

Cohort parity analysis: statistical estimates of the extent of fertility control.

Cohort parity analysis (CPA) is a method for indirect measurement of the extent and timing of the adoption of fertility control within marriage. It uses information on the parity distribution of a cohort of women of specified marriage ages and durations. A multinomial model of parity provides a convenient framework for the computation of distributional parameters describing the extent to which marital fertility control has been accepted and characterizing the way control has been used within specific durations of marriage. This leads to a pair of easily implemented formulas for upper- and lower-bound estimates of the expected proportion of the population ever controlling and the distribution of controllers by parity. The power of CPA is illustrated, using census data for currently married couples in Dublin, Belfast, and other county boroughs of Ireland in 1911.

Adult↗

Lotka's roots under rescalings.

In the mathematical theory of stable populations, when the net maternity function is scaled by a constant divisor , changing its level without changing its shape, the rates of attrition of transient waves in the age structure of the population as it converges toward stability are altered. The attrition rates are specified by the real parts of the complex roots of Lotka 's equation. Conditions are given for the falsity of the longstanding claim that there always exists some rescaling that brings to zero the real part of the complex root governing the lowest frequency wave. A general account of scalable and unscalable roots follows for the discrete-age, Leslie formulation, elucidating and setting limits to the standard account of approach to stability.

Mathematics↗

Algorithms for the study of episodic hormone secretion.

There is no generally accepted procedure for identifying ultradian pulsations in hormonal time series. We suggest an approach based on removing long-term trends, such as diurnal rhythms, from the series of observations; identifying peaks in the residual series; and resolving each peak, if appropriate, into overlapping secretory episodes. The first step uses a robust smoothing technique to generate a smoothed series that omits peaks or trends with time constants less than 6--12 h. The smoothed series is subtracted from the original, and in the second step their difference, the residual series, is examined for the presence of peaks. The standard deviation of the assay is calculated at each point, and the residuals are rescaled in terms of this unit. Peaks are identified as individual subseries elevated above the base line of duration n, all the points in which have magnitude at least G(n), where the values of G are cut-off criteria based on the width of the peak. Thus the algorithm selects both narrow high peaks and broader peaks that may be lower. The user selects the G(n) for each hormone based on theoretical considerations or a set of calibration data series. Points that meet these criteria are identified as belonging to peaks and flagged. To assure that the smoothing process is not influenced by runs of closely spaced peaks, these flagged points are then assigned a reduced weight, and the smoothing is repeated; the revised residuals are then reexamined. After these two steps are iterated until there are no further changes, each peak is examined once more to determine whether it can be resolved into more than one overlapping peak. Finally, the process collects statistics on the average frequency and amplitude of the peaks. We have developed computer programs to carry out these algorithms.

Adult↗

The sisters' riddle and the importance of variance when guessing demographic rates from kin counts.

Goldman (1978) has proposed a formula derived from stable population theory for estimating growth rates from certain counts of younger and older sisters in a population. Computer microsimulation outputs show extraordinarily large statistical errors for estimation when stable population assumptions are modified to allow for random variability such as would be encountered with field work on small populations. A derivation of Goldman's formula on more interpretable lines than that in Goldman (1978) identifies a source of variance special to this particular formula so that the large statistical errors for this example need not count in general against the feasibility of estimating demographic rates from counts of kin.

Family↗