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Biomedical subjects

Kenneth E Warner

Publications and source records attributed to Kenneth E Warner.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2005

The potential impact of a low-nitrosamine smokeless tobacco product on cigarette smoking in the United States: estimates of a panel of experts.

OBJECTIVE: To predict the impact on tobacco use in the US of a "harm reduction" policy that requires that the smokeless tobacco product meet low nitrosamine standards, but could be marketed with a warning label consistent with the evidence of relative health risks. METHODS: Low nitrosamine smokeless tobacco (LN-SLT) and cigarette use are predicted by a panel of experts using a modified Delphi approach. We specify a thought experiment to isolate the changes that would occur after the new LN-SLT policy was implemented. RESULTS: The panel predicted that the new policy would accelerate a decrease in smoking prevalence from 1.3 to 3.1 percentage points over 5 years compared to the current SLT product policy, with greater effects on males than females. Introduction of the new product was also predicted to result in modest additional use of SLT overall, with the greatest increases among males who initiated tobacco use under the new policy. CONCLUSION: An overall consensus was reached that the introduction of a new LN-SLT product under strict regulations would increase SLT use, but reduce overall smoking prevalence. This reduction would likely yield substantial health benefits, but uncertainties surround the role of marketing and other tobacco control policies.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Will the next generation of "safer" cigarettes be safer?

There are three basic means of avoiding smoking-related diseases: never starting to smoke, quitting, and avoiding smoke-filled environments. Recently, a fourth possibility has emerged: use of new, ostensibly less toxic products by smokers who cannot or will not quit, including "reduced toxin" cigarettes and novel smokeless tobacco products. To their purveyors, these new "tobacco harm reduction" (THR) products represent an opportunity for inveterate smokers to reduce their risk of lung cancer and other diseases. To health professionals, the new products pose a myriad of risks. This new generation of THR products is not the first to promise reduced risk, however. Both filtered cigarettes and low tar and nicotine cigarettes were marketed with explicit health themes, ultimately with disastrous results for public health. THR products enter the market subject to no product regulation whatsoever; thus, the opportunity for objective, independent scientific evaluation of their risks and benefits, and for regulation of advertising or sale as a result, is absent. This paper describes the new generation of THR products, discusses potential benefits and risks, examines lessons from the experience with filtered and low tar and nicotine cigarettes, and describes the principal challenges that confront the medical profession, government, and the public in determining what to do with this perplexing array of novel products.

Consumer Product Safety↗
PubMed2005

The role of research in international tobacco control.

The future of the tobacco-produced disease epidemic rests in low- and middle-income countries, where cigarette sales are growing-the result of rising incomes, trade liberalization, liberalization of the treatment of women, and the introduction of Western-style advertising. Research on disease causation, epidemiology, and educational and policy interventions has contributed significantly to reducing smoking rates in developed countries. A similar contribution is needed in less affluent nations, but severe challenges are involved in implementing a robust research program in such countries. In an attempt to understand these challenges and begin to conceptualize an approach to overcoming them, I examine the need for and methods to achieve a program of meaningful research on tobacco and health, as well as health policy, in the developing world.

Biomedical Research↗
PubMed2005

The landscape in global tobacco control research: a guide to gaining a foothold.

Smoking prevalence is shifting from more- to less-developed countries. In higher-income countries, smoking surveillance data, tailored treatments, public health campaigns, and research-based policy implementation have led to a decrease in tobacco use. In low- and middle-income countries, translating research into practice and policy is integral for tobacco control. We describe the landscape of existing resources, both financial and structural, to support global tobacco control research and strengthen research capacity in developing countries. We identify key organizations that support international efforts, provide examples of partnerships between developed and developing countries, and make recommendations for advancing global tobacco research. There is a need for increased commitment from organizations to support global tobacco control research.

Biomedical Research↗
PubMed2005

Effects of snowfalls on motor vehicle collisions, injuries, and fatalities.

OBJECTIVES: We estimated the effects of snowfalls on US traffic crash rates between 1975 and 2000. METHODS: We linked all recorded fatal crashes (1.4 million) for the 48 contiguous states from 1975 through 2000 to daily state weather data. For a subsample including 17 states during the 1990s, we also linked all recorded property-damage-only crashes (22.9 million) and nonfatal-injury crashes (13.5 million) to daily weather data. Employing negative binomial regressions, we investigated the effects of snowfall on crash counts. Fixed effects and other controls were included to address potential confounders. RESULTS: Snow days had fewer fatal crashes than dry days (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.90, 0.97), but more nonfatal-injury crashes (IRR = 1.23; 95% CI = 1.18, 1.29) and property-damage-only crashes (IRR=1.45; 95% CI=1.38, 1.52). The first snowy day of the year was substantially more dangerous than other snow days in terms of fatalities (IRR = 1.14; 95% CI=1.08, 1.21), particularly for elderly drivers (IRR=1.34; 95% CI=1.23, 1.50). CONCLUSIONS: The toll of snow-related crashes is substantial. Our results may help estimate the potential benefits of safety innovations currently proposed by meteorology and traffic safety experts.

Accidents, Traffic↗
PubMed2004

The lifetime distribution of health care costs.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the magnitude and age distribution of lifetime health care expenditures. DATA SOURCES: Claims data on 3.75 million Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan members, and data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the Michigan Mortality Database, and Michigan nursing home patient counts. DATA COLLECTION: Data were aggregated and summarized in year 2000 dollars by service, age, and gender. STUDY DESIGN: We use life table models to simulate a typical lifetime's distribution of expenditures, employing cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific health care costs and the mortality experience of the population. We determine remaining lifetime expenditures at each age for all initial members of a birth cohort. Separately, we calculate remaining expenditures for survivors at all ages. Using cross-sectional data, the analysis holds disease incidence, medical technology, and health care prices constant, thus permitting an exclusive focus on the role of age in health care costs. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Per capita lifetime expenditure is USD $316,600, a third higher for females (USD $361,200) than males (USD $268,700). Two-fifths of this difference owes to women's longer life expectancy. Nearly one-third of lifetime expenditures is incurred during middle age, and nearly half during the senior years. For survivors to age 85, more than one-third of their lifetime expenditures will accrue in their remaining years. CONCLUSIONS: Given the essential demographic phenomenon of our time, the rapid aging of the population, our findings lend increased urgency to understanding and addressing the interaction between aging and health care spending.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Adult cigarette smoking prevalence: declining as expected (not as desired).

We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995-2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R 2 =.89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Decrease in the prevalence of environmental tobacco smoke exposure in the home during the 1990s in families with children.

OBJECTIVES: This study explored correlates with and changes in the prevalence of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure of children in the home. METHODS: We used multiple logistic regression to explore ETS exposures as reported in the 1992 and 2000 National Health Interview Survey. RESULTS: ETS exposure in homes with children declined from 35.6% to 25.1% (P <.001) between 1992 and 2000, whereas smoking prevalence declined 26.5% to 23.3%. Home ETS exposures were more prevalent among non-Hispanic Whites than among African Americans (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.702; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.614, 0.802), Asian Americans (AOR = 0.534; 95% CI = 0.378, 0.754), and Hispanics (AOR = 0.388; 95% CI = 0.294, 0.389). Exposures declined across all groups, with greater gains in higher education and income groups. CONCLUSIONS: Home ETS exposure declined sharply between 1992 and 2000, more than would be predicted by the decline in adult smoking prevalence.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

The financial implications of coverage of smoking cessation treatment by managed care organizations.

This paper presents results from a simulation of the financial impact and cost effectiveness of smoking cessation in a hypothetical managed care organization (MCO), using data from three large managed care organizations and from existing literature. With base-case assumptions and a market cost of capital, at five years, coverage of cessation services costs an MCO dollars .61 per member per month (PMPM). In a steady-state situation, net cost is dollars .41 PMPM. Both values include altered medical expenditures and MCO revenue patterns attributable to coverage-induced cessation. Quitters gain an average of 7.1 years of life, with a direct coverage cost of dollars 3,417 for each life-year saved. Coverage of cost-effective programs by MCOs should be strongly encouraged.

Cohort Studies↗
PubMed2004

The relative risks of a low-nitrosamine smokeless tobacco product compared with smoking cigarettes: estimates of a panel of experts.

A nine-membered panel of experts was asked to determine expert opinions of mortality risks associated with use of low-nitrosamine smokeless tobacco (LN-SLT) marketed for oral use. A modified Delphi approach was employed. For total mortality, the estimated median relative risks for individual users of LN-SLT were 9% and 5% of the risk associated with smoking for those ages 35 to 49 and > or =50 years, respectively. Median mortality risks relative to smoking were estimated to be 2% to 3% for lung cancer, 10% for heart disease, and 15% to 30% for oral cancer. Although individual estimates often varied between 0% and 50%, most panel members were confident or very confident of their estimates by the last round of consultation. In comparison with smoking, experts perceive at least a 90% reduction in the relative risk of LN-SLT use. The risks of using LN-SLT products therefore should not be portrayed as comparable with those of smoking cigarettes as has been the practice of some governmental and public health authorities in the past. Importantly, the overall public health impact of LN-SLT will reflect use patterns, its marketing, and governmental regulation of tobacco products.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Hardening and the hard-core smoker: concepts, evidence, and implications.

A nascent debate pits researchers who believe that hard-core smokers are coming to dominate the remaining population of smokers against others who perceive the hardening of the target as a far more distant concern. At stake is the future emphasis of tobacco control: should we alter the current allocation of resources between treatment of individual smokers and modification of the psychosocial environment through public education and policy measures? We review the evidence and conclude that: (1) hardening is probably occurring in the sense that, compared with earlier generations, many of today's smokers possibly do have greater difficulty quitting, or are inherently less willing to do so. (2) Hardening may be most usefully construed in the context of specific groups of smokers, such as the mentally ill, who may constitute a growing fraction of the remaining smoking population. (3) Using conventional measures, however, we find little evidence that the population of smokers as a whole is hardening. Cessation rates have not decreased. (4) Truly hard-core smokers necessarily constitute a very small fraction of the population. Quitting-susceptible smokers continue to dominate the smoking population. (5) Hardening and the potential existence of true hard-core smokers recommend creative thinking about, and devotion of resources to, finding new ways to help the most dependent smokers to quit. (6) Sound research recommends the expansion of comprehensive tobacco-control programs in both the public and private sectors, and does not support reallocation of resources from such programs toward more intensive individualized treatment. We can afford both.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Nondaily smokers: who are they?

OBJECTIVE: We sought to understand who constitutes the sizable population of nondaily, or some-day (SD), smokers. METHODS: We analyzed descriptive statistics and regression results using the 1998-1999 Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplement to determine the prevalence of SD smokers, their sociodemographic characteristics, and the smoking patterns and histories of groups differentiated by the length and stability of their SD smoking. RESULTS: SD smokers make up 19.2% of all current smokers. Among SD smokers, 44.6% have smoked less than daily for at least 1 year, no more than 14.4% are just starting to smoke, and the rest are likely in transition. Overall, SD smokers smoked a mean of 102 cigarettes per month (compared to 566.4 for daily smokers), on an average of 14.5 days out of the past 30. CONCLUSIONS: SD smokers make up a substantial segment of the smoking population. They are not just beginning to smoke nor trying to quit. Many have developed a long-standing pattern of nondaily smoking, smoking relatively few cigarettes on the days when they do smoke. They are not substantially younger than daily smokers, as one might expect.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2002

The use of simulation models for the surveillance, justification and understanding of tobacco control policies.

Debates over national tobacco legislation and the use of state settlement funds demonstrate a need for information on the effects of tobacco control policies. Computer simulation models that are based on empirical evidence and that account for the variety of influences on tobacco use can be useful tools for informing policy makers. They can identify the effects of different policies, convey the importance of policy approaches to tobacco control, and help policy planners and researchers to better understand policies. This paper examines the role of simulation models in public policy, and discusses several recent models and limitations of those models.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2002

Tobacco harm reduction: conceptual structure and nomenclature for analysis and research.

The goal of tobacco control has always been to reduce death and disease due to tobacco use. Recent discussions have broadened the concept of tobacco control beyond cessation and prevention to include concepts such as the use of medications to achieve reduction in tobacco use, chemoprevention to reduce disease, modifications of tobacco products to reduce toxicity, and behavioral approaches to change smoking and tobacco use behavior. Within each of these broad domains, diverse approaches have been suggested. To facilitate clear discussion and analysis, and to avoid confusion among approaches, we catalog 19 approaches to harm reduction, distinguishing and discussing them on 11 dimensions, including their objectives, mechanisms, toxicology, expected population risks, and consumer appeal. Because there have also been so many suggested applications of medicinal nicotine to smoking intervention, we separately catalog and analyze nine applications, some of which constitute new approaches to harm reduction. The suggested framework is intended to clarify the debate, provide for common nomenclature, and facilitate analysis of diverse approaches to tobacco harm reduction.

Harm Reduction↗
PubMed2002

Tobacco harm reduction: promise and perils.

With the tobacco industry developing and test marketing a wide array of modified cigarettes and novel nicotine-delivery products, the era of tobacco harm reduction is upon us. Like today's new technologies, two previous generations of cigarette innovation-filtered cigarettes in the 1950s and low tar and nicotine cigarettes in the late 1960s and early 1970s were introduced to offer smokers an ostensibly less hazardous means of smoking, and therefore an alternative to quitting. Both innovations maintained cigarette sales and consequently may well have increased the morbidity and mortality toll of smoking. Will a new generation of harm reduction products improve the public's health, or will the experience of the past half-century be repeated? This paper examines the concept of tobacco harm reduction and describes the variety of methods employed in pursuit of it. Through an examination of the experience with filters and low tar and nicotine cigarettes, and an explicit consideration of today's issues and challenges, the paper focuses attention on the essential dimensions of the contemporary harm reduction debate: how science can establish whether novel products or methods will reduce risks to health for individual smokers, or at least exposures likely to influence risks; how a determination can be made as to the likely population impacts of the introduction and marketing of novel products; how health professionals and consumers can learn the potential and limits of harm reduction; and what role for governmental regulation is possible and desirable.

Behavior, Addictive↗
PubMed2002

Reducing tobacco harm: research challenges and issues.

The emergence of potential reduced-exposure tobacco and cigarette-like products and the reduction of smoking as a treatment approach, have recently been forcing the debate and discussion about the science that is necessary to inform policies, regulation, and programs. To deal effectively with the issues evolving around tobacco harm reduction, a comprehensive and strategic research agenda must be forged, and a multi-disciplinary, collaborative approach must be taken. The goal of this article is to describe research challenges and issues related to tobacco exposure and harm reduction. Scientists from multiple disciplines and individuals from government agencies, nonprofit organizations, and tobacco control advocacy groups as well as the pharmaceutical and tobacco industries attended a two-day meeting that focused on addressing the current knowledge regarding tobacco harm reduction, identifying gaps in knowledge, and recommending research directions. Workgroups, comprising a subset of attendees, met after the conference to synthesize, discuss, and prioritize the important research frontiers. The resulting document provides guidance for scientists, grant funding agencies, industry and policy makers by identifying areas in which to invest research effort and funds to develop a science base to ensure the future health of this nation and world.

Communication↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The development, achievements, and aspirations of a university network dedicated to tobacco control research and education.

The establishment of a university-based network of colleagues with a shared goal of increasing tobacco research and educational opportunities can enrich the learning environment and ultimately contribute to reducing the toll of smoking. Such a network was established at the University of Michigan, and similar approaches can be adopted at other universities, considering a range of funding levels. This article discusses the mission, structure, accomplishments, and future goals of the network, along with lessons learned and recommendations for successful initialization. Specific examples of network activities are provided, along with references to web sites and lectures. This case study will be useful to any university leader seeking to establish a network of tobacco and nicotine researchers on campus.

Biomedical Research↗