Prospective fertility and underlying preferences: a longitudinal study in Taiwan.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to L C Coombs.
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Although about half the married women in a US survey said they wanted one or two children, underlying family-size preferences indicate a potential for many to have larger families. Using a measure of family-size preference that probes beyond single-valued statements, it is found that identical stated family-size desires or intentions may have different meanings for different people. Differences are systematically related to the stage in family building at which contraception begins, to current (or likelihood of future) use of effective methods, to the probability of continued childbearing, and to unwanted pregnancies.
This paper examines some of the connecting links between modernization in a developing society, particularly urbanization and increased education for women, and preferences for number of children. Using 1973 Taiwan data, preferences for smaller families are found to be consistently related to modern attitudes and behavior in the three domains examined: intrafamilial husband-wife role relationships, extrafamilial activities of the wife, and familial and religious values relating the family to the larger institutional setting. Modernization of these attitudes, behaviors, and values has an impact on reproductive goals independent of their association with structural variables. The wife's outside activities and exposure to modern influences through the mass media are especially important linkages, having a particularly strong mediating effect in the education effect on preferences. Intrafamilial relations appear to be of less importance. Modernization of familial and religious values mediates between urbanization and family size preferences. The measure of preference used is a scale value which has been found in other research to be more predictive of reproductive behavior than the conventional single-valued statement of number of children wanted. As the level of contraceptive use rises in developing societies, family size preferences increasingly become a factor in birth rates, and understanding the sources of change in these preferences takes on added importance. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.
A measure of underlying family size preference obtained for a sample of Detroit married women in 1962 is related to their fertility over a 15-year follow-up period. The data represent completed fertility. The I-scale preference measure used differs from the conventional single-valued statement of number of children wanted; it is a more fine-grained measure reflecting the respondent's utility for children as evidenced by her entire preference order. The scales are found to be consistently predictive of fertility over the 15-year prospective period, net of other variables usually associated with differential fertility. The results for the just-married sample, in which preferences and expectations are not confounded with the number of children already born, are particularly striking, with underlying preference much better than expected family size as a predictor of fertility over the entire reproductive cycle. The question of prediction for continuous and discontinuous marriages is discussed.
Data from Malaysia on the reproductive goals of husbands and wives are analyzed to determine level of agreement, using new scale measures on preferences for number and sex of children as well as the conventional measure of desired number of children. The level of agreement between husband and wife varies considerably depending on the focus of analysis and the measure of agreement used. Overall aggregate agreement of men and women is high but lower for subgroups of the population, particularly among various ethnic groups. For marital partners, the agreement is much lower, especially on sex preferences. The level observed depends on whether the measure is identity of responses or an index of homogeneity which allows for couple concordance based on chance or common socialization factors. The views about the reproductive goals of one marital partner cannot with confidence be assumed to represent the views of the other.
A number of factual and attitudinal questions asked in the 1973 Taiwan KAP-4 survey were repeated in a postenumeration survey one month later in order to assess the reliability of responses of the 286 women reinterviewed. The level of reliability is found to vary depending on the measures used and on whether the focus is aggregate data or individual responses. Analysis of consistency of responses shows that while overall reliability at both aggregate and individual levels is reasonably good, there is greater reliability for factual than for attitudinal data. Nevertheless, consistency of responses on factual questions varies considerably depending on the salience of the topic to the respondent. Estimates of reliability are shown to depend on the measure used and on the skewness of the distributions of the responses.
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Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Program workers and policy makers may be seriously misled if they put too great a reliance on statements about preferred family size. Underlying biases toward more or fewer children than the stated number affect the timing and effectiveness of contraceptive practice, and may help explain discrepancies between desired and achieved family size.
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