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L Cola

Publications and source records attributed to L Cola.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

[Predictivity associated with oxygen-transporting hemodynamic parameters: relation between the cardiac index and oxygen extraction].

OBJECTIVE: To verify the predictivity of a diagram with the cardiac index (CI) on the y-axis and the oxygen extraction (O2ER) on the x-axis and to verify if the haemodynamic therapy could change the outcome. DESIGN: A retrospective study on a consecutive series of patients. SETTING: University Intensive Care Unit of Ancona. SUBJECTS: 65 critically ill patients, subdivided in survivors (38) and non survivors (27). INTERVENTIONS: All the patients have been monitored with a Swan-Ganz catheter. MEASUREMENTS: CI and O2ER at the admission (T0), at 12 (T1), 24 (T2) and 48 hours (T3) from T0. The diagram CI/02ER has been subdivided in 9 parts on the basis of the normal values of CI (> or = 2,5 and < or = 3,5 1/min/m2) and of O2ER (< or = 24 and > or = 28%). RESULTS: At T2 most of survivors (73.7%) is on the most favourable part of the diagram, with the CI and the O2ER normal or increased, while only 21.4% of non survivors is in this part. On the contrary only 26.3% of survivors versus 78.6% of non survivors are in the less favourable part of the diagram. The chi 2-test shows a good significantly (p = 0.003) in the different distribution on the diagram between survivors and non survivors. A 2 x 2 table has been made. We found: sensibility 78.6% specificity 73.7% and total correct 75.4%. In any other time it has been found a significant different distribution on the diagram between survivors and non survivors. CONCLUSIONS: This diagram can be useful to predict the short term outcome in non septic patients, because at 24 hours give a correct prediction of the outcome in 3 patients on 4, with a good prediction either of the good outcome or of the exitus.

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[Prediction of outcome in critically ill patients using haemodynamic and oxyphoretic parameters].

OBJECTIVE: To find a predictive model for short time mortality and survival of haemodinamically instable patients. DESIGN: Prospective study on two consecutive series of critically ill patients admitted to ICU. SUBJECTS: 115 critically ill patients, subdivided in two series of 83 (47 survivors and 36 non survivors after 20 days from admission) and 32 patients (19 survivors and 13 non survivors), respectively. INTERVENTIONTS: All the patients have been monitored with a Swan-Ganz catheter. MEASUREMENTS: Oxyphoretic parameters were measured at 7 different times (T): T0 (start), T1 (after 12 hours from T0, T2 (24 hrs), T3 (48 hrs), T4 (72 hrs), T5 (96 hrs) and T6 (120 hrs). A total number of 401 recorded values of the first patients' series were used to create the predictive model for outcome (0 non survivors, 1 survivors). Stepwise logistic regression was used to create the model. Model calibration and discrimination was assessed. The model was validated using data collected from the second series. RESULTS: The probability of survival after 20 days was Pr (survive) = e(logit)/1+e(logit), with "logit" = -5,106+(-6,58E-02 SVI)+(-2,76E-03 SVR)+(0,1379 LVSWI)+(0,8933 Hb)+(-3,25E-02 VO2I)+(9,09E-02 O2ER)+(-7,89E-02 SHUNT)+PAT. For medical patients PAT = -0.568; for surgical patients PAT = -1.0525 and for politrauma PAT = 1.593. Goodness-of-fit test showed a good calibration: chi 2 = 4.267, p = 0.832. The area under the ROC curve was 0.831. The model used in the validation data set, with 199 recorded values, also showed a good calibration and discrimination (Goodness-of-fit test: chi 2 = 15.65, p = 0.111; area under the curve 0.798). CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical model we found has been validated also in the second series and the discrimination capability increases with time. Using this model we can evaluate the probability of survival at every time. Its application at different times permits a better evaluation of haemodynamically instable patient trend.

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