L H Goossens | PubMed Health

PubMed1998

Joint EC/USNRC expert judgement driven radiological protection uncertainty analysis.

The development of two probabilistic accident consequence codes sponsored by the European Commission and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, COSYMA and MACCS respectively, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks and other endpoints associated with accidents from hypothesised nuclear installations. In 1991, both commissions sponsored a joint project for an uncertainty analysis of these two codes. The main objective of this joint project was to systematically derive credible and traceable probability distributions for the respective code input variables. These input distributions will subsequently be used in two uncertainty analyses for each code separately. A formal expert judgement elicitation and evaluation process was used as the best available technique to accomplish that objective. This paper describes the process and some of the findings of the eight expert judgement exercises performed under the joint study.

Animals↗

PubMed1991

Risk prevention and policy-making in automatic systems.

Accidents with automatic production systems are reported to be on the order of one in a hundred or thousand robot-years, while fatal accidents are found to occur one or two orders of magnitude less frequently. Traditions in occupational safety tend to seek for safety targets in terms of zero severe accidents for automatic systems. Decision-making requires a risk assessment balancing potential risk reduction measures and costs within the cultural environment of a production company. This paper presents a simplified procedure which acts as a decision tool. The procedure is based on a risk concept approaching prevention both in a deterministic and in a probabilistic manner. Eight accident scenarios are shown to represent the potential accident processes involving robot interactions with people. Seven prevention policies are shown to cover the accident scenarios in principle. An additional probabilistic approach may indicate which extra safety measures can be taken against what risk reduction and additional costs. The risk evaluation process aims at achieving a quantitative acceptable risk level. For that purpose, three risk evaluation methods are discussed with respect to reaching broad consensus on the safety targets.

Accidents, Occupational↗