PubMed Health⌕ Search

Biomedical subjects

L Matthews

Publications and source records attributed to L Matthews.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2007

Modelling the epidemiology and transmission of Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli serogroups O26 and O103 in two different calf cohorts.

Mathematical models are constructed to investigate the population dynamics of Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) serogroups O26 and O103 in two different calf cohorts. We compare the epidemiological characteristics of these two serogroups within the same calf cohort as well as the same serogroups between the two calf cohorts. The sources of infection are quantified for both calf cohort studies. VTEC serogroups O26 and O103 mainly differ in the rate at which calves acquire infection from sources other than infected calves, while infected calves typically remain infectious for less than 1 week regardless of the serogroups. Fewer than 20% of VTEC-positive samples are the result of calf-to-calf transmission. PFGE typing data are available for VTEC-positive samples to further subdivide the serogroup data in one of the two calf cohort studies. For serogroup O26 but not O103, there is evidence for unequal environmental exposure to infection with different PFGE types.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Low-coverage vaccination strategies for the conservation of endangered species.

The conventional objective of vaccination programmes is to eliminate infection by reducing the reproduction number of an infectious agent to less than one, which generally requires vaccination of the majority of individuals. In populations of endangered wildlife, the intervention required to deliver such coverage can be undesirable and impractical; however, endangered populations are increasingly threatened by outbreaks of infectious disease for which effective vaccines exist. As an alternative, wildlife epidemiologists could adopt a vaccination strategy that protects a population from the consequences of only the largest outbreaks of disease. Here we provide a successful example of this strategy in the Ethiopian wolf, the world's rarest canid, which persists in small subpopulations threatened by repeated outbreaks of rabies introduced by domestic dogs. On the basis of data from past outbreaks, we propose an approach that controls the spread of disease through habitat corridors between subpopulations and that requires only low vaccination coverage. This approach reduces the extent of rabies outbreaks and should significantly enhance the long-term persistence of the population. Our study shows that vaccination used to enhance metapopulation persistence through elimination of the largest outbreaks of disease requires lower coverage than the conventional objective of reducing the reproduction number of an infectious agent to less than one.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Heterogeneous shedding of Escherichia coli O157 in cattle and its implications for control.

Identification of the relative importance of within- and between-host variability in infectiousness and the impact of these heterogeneities on the transmission dynamics of infectious agents can enable efficient targeting of control measures. Cattle, a major reservoir host for the zoonotic pathogen Escherichia coli O157, are known to exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity in bacterial shedding densities. By relating bacterial count to infectiousness and fitting dynamic epidemiological models to prevalence data from a cross-sectional survey of cattle farms in Scotland, we identify a robust pattern: approximately 80% of the transmission arises from the 20% most infectious individuals. We examine potential control options under a range of assumptions about within- and between-host variability in infection dynamics. Our results show that the within-herd basic reproduction ratio, R(0), could be reduced to <1 with targeted measures aimed at preventing infection in the 5% of individuals with the highest overall infectiousness. Alternatively, interventions such as vaccination or the use of probiotics that aim to reduce bacterial carriage could produce dramatic reductions in R(0) by preventing carriage at concentrations corresponding to the top few percent of the observed range of counts. We conclude that a greater understanding of the cause of the heterogeneity in bacterial carriage could lead to highly efficient control measures to reduce the prevalence of E. coli O157.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Super-shedding cattle and the transmission dynamics of Escherichia coli O157.

The prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 displays striking variability across the Scottish cattle population. On 78% of farms, in a cross-sectional survey of 952, no shedding of E. coli O157 was detected, but on a small proportion, approximately 2%, very high prevalences of infection were found (with 90-100% of pats sampled being positive). We ask whether this variation arises from the inherent stochasticity in transmission dynamics or whether it is a signature of underlying heterogeneities in the cattle population. A novel approach is taken whereby the cross-sectional data are viewed as providing independent snapshots of a dynamic process. Using maximum-likelihood methods to fit time-dependent epidemiological models to the data we obtain estimates for the rates of immigration and transmission of E. coli O157 infection - parameters which have not been previously quantified in the literature. A comparison of alternative model fits reveals that the variation in the prevalence data is best explained when a proportion of the cattle are assumed to transmit infection at much higher levels than the rest - the so-called super-shedders. Analysis of a second dataset, comprising samples taken from 32 farms at monthly intervals over a period of 1 year, additionally yields an estimate for the rate of recovery from infection. The pattern of prevalence displayed in the second dataset also strongly supports the super-shedder hypothesis.

Animal Husbandry↗
PubMed2005

Modelling the spread of scrapie in a sheep flock: evidence for increased transmission during lambing seasons.

Presence of scrapie infectivity in the placenta suggests the possibility of increased transmission of scrapie during the lambing season. This hypothesis was explored here using a mathematical model of scrapie transmission dynamics which has previously been successfully used to study several scrapie outbreaks in Scottish sheep flocks. It was applied here to the Langlade experimental sheep flock (INRA Toulouse, France), in which a natural scrapie epidemic started in 1993. Extensive data were available, including pedigree, scrapie histopathological diagnoses and PrP genotypes. Detailed simulations of the scrapie outbreak reveal that the observed patterns of seasonality in incidence can not be accounted for by seasonality in demography alone and provide strong support for the hypothesis of increased transmission during lambing. Observations from several other scrapie outbreaks also showing seasonal incidence patterns support these conclusions.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2005

Epidemiological implications of the contact network structure for cattle farms and the 20-80 rule.

The network of movements of cattle between farm holdings is an important determinant of the potential rates and patterns of spread of infectious diseases. Because cattle movements are uni-directional, the network is unusual in that the risks of acquiring infection (by importing cattle) and of passing infection on (by exporting cattle) can be clearly distinguished, and there turns out to be no statistically significant correlation between the two. This means that the high observed degree of heterogeneity in numbers of contacts does not result in an increase in the basic reproduction number, R0, in contrast to findings from studies of other contact networks. Despite this, it is still the case that just 20% of holdings contribute at least 80% of the value of R0.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2005

Reactome: a knowledgebase of biological pathways.

Reactome, located at http://www.reactome.org is a curated, peer-reviewed resource of human biological processes. Given the genetic makeup of an organism, the complete set of possible reactions constitutes its reactome. The basic unit of the Reactome database is a reaction; reactions are then grouped into causal chains to form pathways. The Reactome data model allows us to represent many diverse processes in the human system, including the pathways of intermediary metabolism, regulatory pathways, and signal transduction, and high-level processes, such as the cell cycle. Reactome provides a qualitative framework, on which quantitative data can be superimposed. Tools have been developed to facilitate custom data entry and annotation by expert biologists, and to allow visualization and exploration of the finished dataset as an interactive process map. Although our primary curational domain is pathways from Homo sapiens, we regularly create electronic projections of human pathways onto other organisms via putative orthologs, thus making Reactome relevant to model organism research communities. The database is publicly available under open source terms, which allows both its content and its software infrastructure to be freely used and redistributed.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Modelling the epidemiology of Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli serogroups in young calves.

We investigate the epidemiology of 12 Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) serogroups observed in a calf cohort on a Scottish beef farm. Fitting mathematical models to the observed time-course of infections reveals that there is significant calf-to-calf transmission of VTEC. Our models suggest that 40% of all detected infections are from calf-to-calf transmission and 60% from other sources. Variation in the rates at which infected animals recover from infection by different VTEC serogroups appears to be important. Two thirds of the observed VTEC serogroups are lost from infected calves within 1 day of infection, while the rest persist for more than 3 days. Our study has demonstrated that VTEC are transmissible between calves and are typically lost from infected animals in less than 1 week. We suggest that future field studies may wish to adopt a tighter sampling frame in order to detect all circulating VTEC serogroups in similar animal populations.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

The DNA sequence and comparative analysis of human chromosome 10.

The finished sequence of human chromosome 10 comprises a total of 131,666,441 base pairs. It represents 99.4% of the euchromatic DNA and includes one megabase of heterochromatic sequence within the pericentromeric region of the short and long arm of the chromosome. Sequence annotation revealed 1,357 genes, of which 816 are protein coding, and 430 are pseudogenes. We observed widespread occurrence of overlapping coding genes (either strand) and identified 67 antisense transcripts. Our analysis suggests that both inter- and intrachromosomal segmental duplications have impacted on the gene count on chromosome 10. Multispecies comparative analysis indicated that we can readily annotate the protein-coding genes with current resources. We estimate that over 95% of all coding exons were identified in this study. Assessment of single base changes between the human chromosome 10 and chimpanzee sequence revealed nonsense mutations in only 21 coding genes with respect to the human sequence.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

DNA sequence and analysis of human chromosome 9.

Chromosome 9 is highly structurally polymorphic. It contains the largest autosomal block of heterochromatin, which is heteromorphic in 6-8% of humans, whereas pericentric inversions occur in more than 1% of the population. The finished euchromatic sequence of chromosome 9 comprises 109,044,351 base pairs and represents >99.6% of the region. Analysis of the sequence reveals many intra- and interchromosomal duplications, including segmental duplications adjacent to both the centromere and the large heterochromatic block. We have annotated 1,149 genes, including genes implicated in male-to-female sex reversal, cancer and neurodegenerative disease, and 426 pseudogenes. The chromosome contains the largest interferon gene cluster in the human genome. There is also a region of exceptionally high gene and G + C content including genes paralogous to those in the major histocompatibility complex. We have also detected recently duplicated genes that exhibit different rates of sequence divergence, presumably reflecting natural selection.

Base Composition↗
PubMed2003

Neighbourhood control policies and the spread of infectious diseases.

We present a model of a control programme for a disease outbreak in a population of livestock holdings. Control is achieved by culling infectious holdings when they are discovered and by the pre-emptive culling of livestock on holdings deemed to be at enhanced risk of infection. Because the pre-emptive control programme cannot directly identify exposed holdings, its implementation will result in the removal of both infected and uninfected holdings. This leads to a fundamental trade-off: increased levels of control produce a greater reduction in transmission by removing more exposed holdings, but increase the number of uninfected holdings culled. We derive an expression for the total number of holdings culled during the course of an outbreak and demonstrate that there is an optimal control policy, which minimizes this loss. Using a metapopulation model to incorporate local clustering of infection, we examine a neighbourhood control programme in a locally spreading outbreak. We find that there is an optimal level of control, which increases with increasing basic reproduction ratio, R(0); moreover, implementation of control may be optimal even when R(0) < 1. The total loss to the population is relatively insensitive to the level of control as it increases beyond the optimal level, suggesting that over-control is a safer policy than under-control.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

The construction and analysis of epidemic trees with reference to the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth outbreak.

The case-reproduction ratio for the spread of an infectious disease is a critically important concept for understanding dynamics of epidemics and for evaluating impact of control measures on spread of infection. Reliable estimation of this ratio is a problem central to epidemiology and is most often accomplished by fitting dynamic models to data and estimating combinations of parameters that equate to the case-reproduction ratio. Here, we develop a novel parameter-free method that permits direct estimation of the history of transmission events recoverable from detailed observation of a particular epidemic. From these reconstructed 'epidemic trees', case-reproduction ratios can be estimated directly. We develop a bootstrap algorithm that generates percentile intervals for these estimates that shows the procedure to be both precise and robust to possible uncertainties in the historical reconstruction. Identifying and 'pruning' branches from these trees whose occurrence might have been prevented by implementation of more stringent control measures permits estimation of the possible efficacy of these alternative measures. Examination of the cladistic structure of these trees as a function of the distance of each case from its infection source reveals useful insights about the relationship between long-distance transmission events and epidemic size. We demonstrate the utility of these methods by applying them to data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the UK.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2002

Comparative epidemiology of scrapie outbreaks in individual sheep flocks.

Data recording the course of scrapie outbreaks in 4 sheep flocks (2 in Cheviot sheep and 2 in Suffolks) are compared. For each outbreak the data on scrapie incidence and sheep demography and pedigrees cover periods of years or decades. A key finding is that the incidence of clinical cases peaks in sheep 2-3 years old, despite very different forces-of-infection. This is consistent with age-specific susceptibility of sheep to scrapie, as has been reported for cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and for humans to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Scrapie incidence was higher in ewes than rams and at certain times of years, though these effects were not consistent between flocks. There was no evidence for high levels of vertical transmission.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2001

Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape.

Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.

Animal Husbandry↗
PubMed2001

Effects of interrupted social contact on the social behaviour of calves and piglets.

The use of traditional operant conditioning techniques to assess the behavioural needs of farm animals has been criticised because presenting short rewards repeatedly may interrupt bouts of behaviour and thereby devalue the reward. The two reported experiments (one including 12 calves and one including 12 piglets) aimed to investigate if interruption of social contact affects social behaviour. In both experiments, animals were housed in pairs (one test animal and one companion animal) in large pens with solid sides. The experiment included three periods: a pre-test period, a test period and a post-test period. Animals were separated for 24 h and then reunited for 24 h in each period. In the test period, the first 42 min of contact after reunification comprised 12 successive 3.5 min long periods separated by gaps, whereas in the pre- and post-test periods, the contact was continuous. Calves sniffed and licked each other more when social contact was interrupted (P<0.01), but no effects of interrupting social contact were found for social or locomotor play. In piglets, the test animals performed more flank pushing of the companion (P<0.01), and avoided the companion more (P<0.05), when social contact was interrupted, while no effects of interruption were found for parallel pressing, bites and head knocks, sniffing or locomotor play. The results suggest that if social contact is interrupted in an operant conditioning set up, some elements of aggressive behaviour may be stimulated in piglets.

Journal Article↗