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Biomedical subjects

L S Kalkstein

Publications and source records attributed to L S Kalkstein.

11 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2003

An operational heat/health warning system in Shanghai.

Previous research has noted that high surface temperatures within certain "offensive" air masses can lead to increased mortality. This study assesses the relationship between daily mortality rates and weather within the city of Shanghai, China, while introducing an operational heat/health warning system for the city. Using numerous meteorological observations, the spatial synoptic classification has been used to classify each summer day from 1989 to 1998 into one of eight air mass types for Shanghai. Through the comparative analysis of the daily air mass type and the corresponding Shanghai mortality rate, "moist tropical plus" (MT+), an extremely hot and humid air mass, was identified as an offensive air mass with the highest rates of mortality. Using stepwise regression, an algorithm was produced to help predict the number of excess deaths that will occur with each occurrence of the MT+ airmass. The heat/health warning system was run experimentally in the summer of 2001 and illustrated that the use of a warning system can alert the city's residents of potentially offensive weather situations that can lead to a deterioration in human health.

China↗
PubMed1998

New procedures to estimate water temperatures and water depths for application in climate-dengue modeling.

Two new approaches have been developed to estimate water temperatures and water depths in containers that commonly are used as breeding sites for mosquitoes, the primary vectors of dengue viruses. These estimates are incorporated in recently developed stochastic simulation models used to describe the daily dynamics of dengue virus transmission in the urban environment. Water temperature estimates are provided through a regression model that includes meteorological variables not previously used; results show that they are significantly better than those used in previous dengue transmission models. Water depth models use a climatic water budget approach which estimates moisture storage within containers. The water depth models are less precise than those developed for water temperature; however, results are superior to those used in previous models. These new approaches should improve estimates of the impact of water conditions on dengue vectors.

Aedes↗
PubMed1997

A synoptic evaluation of asthma hospital admissions in New York City.

An evaluation of weather/asthma relationships in the New York City Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) is developed using a synoptic climatological methodology. This procedure isolates "air masses," or bodies of air that are homogeneous in meteorological character, and relates them to daily counts of overnight asthma hospital admissions. The synoptic procedure used here, known as the temporal synoptic index (TSI), can identify air masses in automated fashion for every day over many years. It is apparent that certain air masses are related to statistically significant increases in asthma hospital admissions. The impact varies seasonally, with weather having a particularly important impact on asthma admissions during fall and winter. It appears that air pollution has little impact on asthma during these two seasons, and the air masses associated with the highest admissions are not distinguished by high concentrations of pollutants. However, during spring and summer, the air masses associated with highest admissions are among those with high pollution concentrations. There is a strong interseasonal differential response to weather and air pollution by asthmatics in New York City. If these results can be replicated at other locations in future studies, it may be possible to develop an asthma/weather watch-warning system, based on the expected arrival of high-admissions air masses.

Air Pollutants↗
PubMed1997

An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change.

A new air mass-based synoptic procedure is used to evaluate climate/mortality relationships as they presently exist and to estimate how a predicted global warming might alter these values. Forty-four large U.S. cities with metropolitan areas exceeding 1 million in population are analyzed. Sharp increases in mortality are noted in summer for most cities in the East and Midwest when two particular air masses are present. A very warm air mass of maritime origin is most important in the eastern United States, which when present can increase daily mortality by as many as 30 deaths in large cities. A hot, dry air mass is important in many cities, and, although rare in the East, can increase daily mortality by up to 50 deaths. Cities in the South and Southwest show lesser weather/mortality relationships in summer. During winter, air mass-induced increases in mortality are considerably less than in summer. Although daily winter mortality is usually higher than summer, the causes of death that are responsible for most winter mortality do not vary much with temperature. Using models that estimate climate change for the years 2020 and 2050, it is estimated that summer mortality will increase dramatically and winter mortality will decrease slightly, even if people acclimatize to the increased warmth. Thus, a sizable net increase in weather-related mortality is estimated if the climate warms as the models predict.

Aged↗
PubMed1996

Synoptic weather modeling and estimates of the exposure-response relationship between daily mortality and particulate air pollution.

This study estimated the association between particulate air pollution and daily mortality in Utah Valley using the synoptic climatological approach to control for potential weather effects. This approach was compared with alternative weather modeling approaches. Although seasonality explained a significant amount of variability in mortality, other weather variables explained only a very small amount of additional variability in mortality. The synoptic climatological approach performed as well or slightly better than alternative approaches to controlling for weather. However, the estimated effect of particulate pollution on mortality was mostly unchanged or slightly larger when synoptic categories were used to control for weather. Furthermore, the shape of the estimated dose-response relationship was similar when alternative approaches to controlling for weather were used. The associations between particulate pollution and daily mortality were not significantly different from a linear exposure-response relationship that extends throughout the full observed range of pollution.

Air Pollution↗
PubMed1993

The impact of climate change on human health: some international implications.

The objective of this study is to discuss the potential impact of a global warming on various aspects of human health. Changes in heat-related mortality are estimated for four countries: the United States, Canada, the People's Republic of China and Egypt. In addition, the potential confounding impact of increased air pollution is considered. Finally, a framework to analyze two vector-borne diseases, onchocerciasis and malaria, which may spread if temperatures increase, is discussed. Our findings suggest that heat-related mortality is estimated to rise significantly in all four countries if the earth warms, with the greatest impacts in China and Egypt. The most sensitive areas are those with intense but irregular heat waves. In the United States, air pollution does not appear to impact daily mortality significantly when severe weather is present, although it seems to have a slight influence when weather conditions are not stressful.

Canada↗
PubMed1991

A new approach to evaluate the impact of climate on human mortality.

The objective of this study is to introduce a new procedure to determine the impact of climate on human mortality with the use of a synoptic climatological approach. The holistic nature of synoptic categories allows for the simultaneous evaluation of numerous weather elements as they realistically appear within air masses. In addition, this approach allows for a better distinction between pollution-induced mortality and weather-induced mortality. A synoptic categorization was performed for St. Louis, Missouri, and each category was evaluated in terms of its mean daily mortality. Of 10 summer categories found in St. Louis, one possessed the highest mean mortality by far, and 8 of the top 10 mortality days in St. Louis occurred when this category was present. Further analysis determined that long, consecutive day periods of this hot, oppressive category are associated with a continuing rise in mortality. It was determined that the procedure described here has the potential to be used in a weather/mortality watch-warning system. Finally, it appears that day-to-day mortality fluctuations are much more sensitive to weather than to pollution concentrations, as the oppressive category associated with the greatest mortality possessed levels of six major pollutants that were not noteworthy.

Age Factors↗