Seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus infection.
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Child↗
Biomedical subjects
Lisa J White
Publications and source records attributed to Lisa J White.
The reinfection threshold.
Thresholds in transmission are responsible for critical changes in infectious disease epidemiology. The epidemic threshold indicates whether infection invades a totally susceptible population. The reinfection threshold indicates whether self-sustained transmission occurs in a population that has developed a degree of partial immunity to the pathogen (by previous infection or vaccination). In models that combine susceptible and partially immune individuals, the reinfection threshold is technically not a bifurcation of equilibria as correctly pointed out by Breban and Blower. However, we show that a branch of equilibria to a reinfection submodel bifurcates from the disease-free equilibrium as transmission crosses this threshold. Consequently, the full model indicates that levels of infection increase by two orders of magnitude and the effect of mass vaccination becomes negligible as transmission increases across the reinfection threshold.
Disease Outbreaks↗
The structural identifiability of the susceptible infected recovered model with seasonal forcing.
In this paper, it is shown that the SIR epidemic model, with the force of infection subject to seasonal variation, and a proportion of either the prevalence or the incidence measured, is unidentifiable unless certain key system parameters are known, or measurable. This means that an uncountable number of different parameter vectors can, theoretically, give rise to the same idealised output data. Any subsequent parameter estimation from real data must be viewed with little confidence as a result. The approach adopted for the structural identifiability analysis utilises the existence of an infinitely differentiable transformation that connects the state trajectories corresponding to parameter vectors that give rise to identical output data. When this approach proves computationally intractable, it is possible to use the converse idea that the existence of a coordinate transformation between states for particular parameter vectors implies indistinguishability between these vectors from the corresponding model outputs.
Algorithms↗
Respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology in a birth cohort from Kilifi district, Kenya: infection during the first year of life.
We report estimates of incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection during the first year of life for a birth cohort from rural, coastal Kenya. A total of 338 recruits born between 21 January 2002 and 30 May 2002 were monitored for symptoms of respiratory infection by home visits and hospital referrals. Nasal washings were screened by use of immunofluorescence. From 311 child-years of observation (cyo), 133 RSV infections were found, of which 48 were lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and 31 were severe LRTIs, resulting in 4 hospital admissions. There were 121 primary RSV infections (248 cyo), of which 45 were LRTIs and 30 were severe LRTIs, resulting in 4 hospital admissions; there was no association with age. RSV contributed significantly to total LRTI disease in this vaccine-target group.
Age Factors↗
Infection, reinfection, and vaccination under suboptimal immune protection: epidemiological perspectives.
The SIR (susceptible-infectious-resistant) and SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) frameworks for infectious disease have been extensively studied and successfully applied. They implicitly assume the upper and lower limits of the range of possibilities for host immune response. However, the majority of infections do not fall into either of these extreme categories. We combine two general avenues that straddle this range: temporary immune protection (immunity wanes over time since infection), and partial immune protection (immunity is not fully protective but reduces the risk of reinfection). We present a systematic analysis of the dynamics and equilibrium properties of these models in comparison to SIR and SIS, and analyse the outcome of vaccination programmes. We describe how the waning of immunity shortens inter-epidemic periods, and poses major difficulties to disease eradication. We identify a "reinfection threshold" in transmission when partial immunity is included. Below the reinfection threshold primary infection dominates, levels of infection are low, and vaccination is highly effective (approximately an SIR model). Above the reinfection threshold reinfection dominates, levels of infection are high, and vaccination fails to protect (approximately an SIS situation). This association between high prevalence of infection and vaccine failure emphasizes the problems of controlling recurrent infections in high-burden regions. However, vaccines that induce a better protection than natural infection have the potential to increase the reinfection threshold, and therefore constitute interventions with a surprisingly high capacity to reduce infection where reduction is most needed.
Communicable Disease Control↗
Structural identifiability analysis of some highly structured families of statespace models using differential algebra.
In this paper we identify biologically relevant families of models whose structural identifiability analysis could not be performed with available techniques directly. The models considered come from both the immunological and epidemiological literature.
Animals↗