Biomedical subjects

Lora Billings

Publications and source records attributed to Lora Billings.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2005

Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases.

Multistrain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue hemorrhagic fever that outbreaks of the four serotypes occur asynchronously. Both autonomous and seasonally driven outbreaks were studied in a model containing ADE. For sufficiently small ADE, the number of infectives of each serotype synchronizes, with outbreaks occurring in phase. When the ADE increases past a threshold, the system becomes chaotic, and infectives of each serotype desynchronize. However, certain groupings of the primary and secondary infectives remain synchronized even in the chaotic regime.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Dynamic effects of antibody-dependent enhancement on the fitness of viruses.

Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), a phenomenon in which viral replication is increased rather than decreased by immune sera, has been observed in vitro for a large number of viruses of public health importance, including flaviviruses, coronaviruses, and retroviruses. The most striking in vivo example of ADE in humans is dengue hemorrhagic fever, a disease in which ADE is thought to increase the severity of clinical manifestations of dengue virus infection by increasing virus replication. We examine the epidemiological impact of ADE on the prevalence and persistence of viral serotypes. Using a dynamical system model of n cocirculating dengue serotypes, we find that ADE may provide a competitive advantage to those serotypes that undergo enhancement compared with those that do not, and that this advantage increases with increasing numbers of cocirculating serotypes. Paradoxically, there are limits to the selective advantage provided by increasing levels of ADE, because greater levels of enhancement induce large amplitude oscillations in incidence of all dengue virus infections, threatening the persistence of both the enhanced and nonenhanced serotypes. Although the models presented here are specifically designed for dengue, our results are applicable to any epidemiological system in which partial immunity increases pathogen replication rates. Our results suggest that enhancement is most advantageous in settings where multiple serotypes circulate and where a large host population is available to support pathogen persistence during the deep troughs of ADE-induced large amplitude oscillations of virus replication.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Dynamical epidemic suppression using stochastic prediction and control.

We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control scheme that prevents large outbreaks from occurring. The theory is applicable to a wide range of stochastic processes with underlying deterministic structure.

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PubMed2004

Stochastic bifurcation in a driven laser system: experiment and theory.

We analyze the effects of stochastic perturbations in a physical example occurring as a higher-dimensional dynamical system. The physical model is that of a class- B laser, which is perturbed stochastically with finite noise. The effect of the noise perturbations on the dynamics is shown to change the qualitative nature of the dynamics experimentally from a stochastic periodic attractor to one of chaoslike behavior, or noise-induced chaos. To analyze the qualitative change, we apply the technique of the stochastic Frobenius-Perron operator [L. Billings et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 234101 (2002)] to a model of the experimental system. Our main result is the identification of a global mechanism to induce chaoslike behavior by adding stochastic perturbations in a realistic model system of an optics experiment. In quantifying the stochastic bifurcation, we have computed a transition matrix describing the probability of transport from one region of phase space to another, which approximates the stochastic Frobenius-Perron operator. This mechanism depends on both the standard deviation of the noise and the global topology of the system. Our result pinpoints regions of stochastic transport whereby topological deterministic dynamics subjected to sufficient noise results in noise-induced chaos in both theory and experiment.

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PubMed2004

Multi-scale continuum mechanics: from global bifurcations to noise induced high-dimensional chaos.

Many mechanical systems consist of continuum mechanical structures, having either linear or nonlinear elasticity or geometry, coupled to nonlinear oscillators. In this paper, we consider the class of linear continua coupled to mechanical pendula. In such mechanical systems, there often exist several natural time scales determined by the physics of the problem. Using a time scale splitting, we analyze a prototypical structural-mechanical system consisting of a planar nonlinear pendulum coupled to a flexible rod made of linear viscoelastic material. In this system both low-dimensional and high-dimensional chaos is observed. The low-dimensional chaos appears in the limit of small coupling between the continua and oscillator, where the natural frequency of the primary mode of the rod is much greater than the natural frequency of the pendulum. In this case, the motion resides on a slow manifold. As the coupling is increased, global motion moves off of the slow manifold and high-dimensional chaos is observed. We present a numerical bifurcation analysis of the resulting system illustrating the mechanism for the onset of high-dimensional chaos. Constrained invariant sets are computed to reveal a process from low-dimensional to high-dimensional transitions. Applications will be to both deterministic and stochastic bifurcations. Practical implications of the bifurcation from low-dimensional to high-dimensional chaos for detection of damage as well as global effects of noise will also be discussed.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2003

Noise-induced unstable dimension variability and transition to chaos in random dynamical systems.

Results are reported concerning the transition to chaos in random dynamical systems. In particular, situations are considered where a periodic attractor coexists with a nonattracting chaotic saddle, which can be expected in any periodic window of a nonlinear dynamical system. Under noise, the asymptotic attractor of the system can become chaotic, as characterized by the appearance of a positive Lyapunov exponent. Generic features of the transition include the following: (1) the noisy chaotic attractor is necessarily nonhyperbolic as there are periodic orbits embedded in it with distinct numbers of unstable directions (unstable dimension variability), and this nonhyperbolicity develops as soon as the attractor becomes chaotic; (2) for systems described by differential equations, the unstable dimension variability destroys the neutral direction of the flow in the sense that there is no longer a zero Lyapunov exponent after the noisy attractor becomes chaotic; and (3) the largest Lyapunov exponent becomes positive from zero in a continuous manner, and its scaling with the variation of the noise amplitude is algebraic. Formulas for the scaling exponent are derived in all dimensions. Numerical support using both low- and high-dimensional systems is provided.

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PubMed2002

Phase-space transport of stochastic chaos in population dynamics of virus spread.

A general way to classify stochastic chaos is presented and applied to population dynamics models. A stochastic dynamical theory is used to develop an algorithmic tool to measure the transport across basin boundaries and predict the most probable regions of transport created by noise. The results of this tool are illustrated on a model of virus spread in a large population, where transport regions reveal how noise completes the necessary manifold intersections for the creation of emerging stochastic chaos.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2002

Transition to chaos in continuous-time random dynamical systems.

We consider situations where, in a continuous-time dynamical system, a nonchaotic attractor coexists with a nonattracting chaotic saddle, as in a periodic window. Under the influence of noise, chaos can arise. We investigate the fundamental dynamical mechanism responsible for the transition and obtain a general scaling law for the largest Lyapunov exponent. A striking finding is that the topology of the flow is fundamentally disturbed after the onset of noisy chaos, and we point out that such a disturbance is due to changes in the number of unstable eigendirections along a continuous trajectory under the influence of noise.

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PubMed1996

On noninvertible mappings of the plane: Eruptions.

In this paper we are concerned with the dynamics of noninvertible transformations of the plane. Three examples are explored and possibly a new bifurcation, or "eruption," is described. A fundamental role is played by the interactions of fixed points and singular curves. Other critical elements in the phase space include periodic points and an invariant line. The dynamics along the invariant line, in two of the examples, reduces to the one-dimensional Newton's method which is conjugate to a degree two rational map. We also determine, computationally, the characteristic exponents for all of the systems. An unexpected coincidence is that the parameter range where the invariant line becomes neutrally stable, as measured by a zero Lyapunov exponent, coincides with the merging of a periodic point with a point on a singular curve. (c) 1996 American Institute of Physics.

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