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Biomedical subjects

M Begon

Publications and source records attributed to M Begon.

13 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1998

A model of disease and vaccination for infections with acute and chronic phases.

A general model is presented of a disease in which both recovered and vaccinated individuals are protected from acute disease, but are still susceptible to chronic infection. The special threshold conditions for the establishment and persistence of such a disease are derived and explained in full. The efficacies of alternative vaccination strategies are detailed and a specific example of such a disease is given by examining feline calicivirus (FCV), a cause of upper respiratory tract disease in cats.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1997

The effect of cowpox virus infection on fecundity in bank voles and wood mice.

Although epidemic infectious diseases are a recognized cause of changes in host population dynamics, there is little direct evidence for the effect of endemic infections on populations. Cowpox virus is an orthopoxvirus which is endemic in bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus), wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) and field voles (Microtus agrestis) in Great Britain. It does not cause obvious signs of disease nor does it affect survival, but in this study we demonstrate experimentally that it can reduce the fecundity of bank voles and wood mice by increasing the time to first litter by 20-30 days. The pathogenic mechanisms causing this effect are at present not known, but this finding suggests that natural subclinical infection could have a considerable effect on the dynamics of wild populations.

Animals↗
PubMed1997

Cowpox in British voles and mice.

Serosurveys indicate that bank voles, field voles and woodmice are probably reservoir hosts of cowpox virus in western Europe, although virus has not yet been isolated from these species. In this study, bank voles, field voles, woodmice and laboratory mice were shown to be susceptible to combined intradermal and subcutaneous inoculation with 3-20 plaque-forming units (pfu) of cowpox virus. Bank and field voles, but not laboratory mice, were also susceptible to combined oral and nasal inoculation with 50 pfu. Few clinical signs were seen and virus was generally recovered only from inoculation sites. Bank voles were not susceptible to injection of ectromelia virus (5000 pfu) into the skin (as described above). These results provide information on which further pathogenesis and transmission studies can be based, and support the view that the orthopoxvirus antibody detected in British wild voles and woodmice indicates infection with cowpox virus. However, further investigation of the pathogenesis of cowpox in these species is needed to understand better the epidemiology of the disease.

Administration, Intranasal↗
PubMed1996

Host-pathogen systems in a spatially patchy environment.

A discrete model for a host-pathogen system is developed and is used to represent the dynamics in each patch within a landscape of n x n patches. These patches are linked by between-generation dispersal to neighbouring patches. Important results (compared to similar 'coupled map lattice' studies) include an increase in the likelihood of metapopulation extinction if the natural loss of pathogen particles is low, and the observation of a radial wave pattern (not previously reported) where the wavefront propagates uniformly from a central focus. This result has additional significance in that it permits the system to exhibit 'intermittency' between two quasi-stable spatial patterns: spirals and radial waves. With intermittent behaviour, the dynamics may look consistent when viewed at one time scale, but over a longer time scale they can alter dramatically and repeatedly between the two patterns. There is also evidence of clear links between spatial structure and temporal metapopulation behaviour in both the intermittent and 'pure' regions, verified by results from an algorithmic complexity measure and a spectral analysis of the temporal dynamics.

Animals↗
PubMed1996

Transmission dynamics of Bacillus thuringiensis infecting Plodia interpunctella: a test of the mass action assumption with an insect pathogen.

Central to theoretical studies of host-pathogen population dynamics is a term describing transmission of the pathogen. This usually assumes that transmission is proportional to the density of infectious hosts or particles and of susceptible individuals. We tested this assumption with the bacterial pathogen Bacillus thuringiensis infecting larvae of Plodia interpunctella, the Indian meal moth. Transmission was found to increase in a more than linear way with host density in fourth and fifth instar P. interpunctella, and to decrease with the density of infectious cadavers in the case of fifth instar larvae. Food availability was shown to play an important part in this process. Therefore, on a number of counts, the usual assumption was found not to apply in our experimental system.

Animals↗
PubMed1994

Life-history trade-offs and the evolution of pathogen resistance: competition between host strains.

The dynamics of a 'resistant' and a 'susceptible' strain of a self-regulated host species, in the presence of a directly transmitted pathogen, is investigated. The two strains trade off differences in pathogen transmissibility (as an aspect of pathogen resistance) against differences in birth rate and/or resistance to crowding. Depending on parameter values, either strain may be eliminated, or the two may coexist (along with the pathogen). Coexistence (polymorphism), unsurprisingly, requires an appropriate balance between the different advantages possessed by the two strains. The probability of coexistence through such a balance, however, varies nonlinearly with the degree of difference between the strains: coexistence is least likely between two very similar strains. Resistance is most likely to evolve in hosts with the characteristics of many insect pests. Moreover, with highly pathogenic pathogens, a 'susceptible' strain may exclude a 'resistant' strain because its higher growth rate is more effective against the pathogen than reduced transmissibility. 'Resistance' can reside in parameters other than those directly associated with the pathogen. Although no cycles arise and no chaotic behaviour is found, an oscillatory approach to equilibrium is commonly observed, signalling the possibility of observable oscillations in strain frequency in the (more variable) real world.

Animals↗
PubMed1994

Host-host-pathogen models and microbial pest control: the effect of host self regulation.

A model has been investigated of the dynamics of the interaction between two hosts that are both attacked by a common pathogen with free-living infective stages, where the hosts are also subject to self-regulation. If either host interacted with the pathogen alone, two types of dynamics would be possible: an uninfected state where the host settles at its carrying capacity, and an infected state where the host settles at, or cycles around, a density lower than the carrying capacity. The three possible combination of two hosts have been investigated: uninfected-uninfected (both hosts uninfected if alone with the pathogen), infected-uninfected and infected-infected. A range of dynamics is generated, depending on parameter values, including infected co-existence of the two hosts (arrived at by a variety of routes), uninfected co-existence of the two hosts, exclusion of one host by the other which remains in an infected state, and a number of outcomes contingent on the initial densities in the system. Free-living infective stages make uninfected co-existence more likely and introduce additional contingency into the dynamics. The implications for microbial pest control are into the dynamics. The implications for microbial pest control are markedly different from those derived from related models without host self-regulation. There appears to be little chance of a non-target host undermining pest control, relatively little chance of the non-target enhancing pest control and a small but non-negligible threat to non-targets when parameter values are appropriate. The application of the results is commended but great caution is urged.

Animals↗
PubMed1994

The population dynamics of microparasites and vertebrate hosts: the importance of immunity and recovery.

The models of Anderson and May on the dynamics of vertebrate (1979, Nature 280, 361-367) and invertebrate (1981, Philos, Trans. R. Soc. 291, 451-524) populations and their microparasites have been extended and elaborated. Hence, in a series of models the effects of a range of biological factors have been considered. These models taken together clarify in particular the effects of recovery from the disease back to a state of susceptibility and the additional effects of recovery to a state of immunity. In general recovery increases both the threshold density and the equilibrium density but does not alter the prevalence of infection or the region in parameter space in which the host is regulated. Immunity causes a further increase in the equilibrium density, does not alter either the prevalence of infection or the threshold density, but reduces the region in which there is regulation. In both cases exceptions tend to occur when there is density dependence.

Animals↗
PubMed1991

A host-host-pathogen model with free-living infective stages, applicable to microbial pest control.

A model has been investigated of the dynamics of the interaction between two hosts which are both attacked by a common pathogen, where the pathogen has free-living infective stages the population size of which must itself be modelled explicitly, and where the host species do not interact with one another except through their shared pathogen. If either host interacted with the pathogen alone, three broad classes of dynamics would be possible: host regulation, pathogen persistence and pathogen extinction. Here, all possible types of combinations of hosts are examined: regulation-regulation (both hosts would be regulated if they interacted with the pathogen alone), regulation-persistence, regulation-extinction, persistence-persistence persistence-extinction and extinction-extinction. A wide range of dynamics is generated, including a number of patterns quite unlike those found in the one-host pathogen case (e.g. persistence in one host, elimination of the other host) and behaviour contingent on initial densities in the system. For clarity and pertinence, attention is focused on the case where one host is a pest, the pathogen is a potential microbial control agent, and the other host is a non-target species which it is undesirable to harm. The model suggests, broadly, that non-targets are unlikely to be seriously threatened in such cases, and also that non-targets, far from undermining pest control, are quite likely to contribute to its efficacy.

Animals↗
PubMed1977

The effective size of a natural drosophila subobscura population.

The effective size of a natural Drosophila subobscura population has been computed by drawing together various pieces of ecological information. The value, for both variance and inbreeding effective numbers, is approximately 400. This is largely due to reductions caused by a winter bottleneck and non-random distributions of family sizes. Areas where such estimates might be refined further are pointed out, and the implications of the results are discussed.

Animals↗