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M D Gupte

Publications and source records attributed to M D Gupte.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Estimation of measles vaccination coverage using the Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) method--Tamilnadu, India, 2002-2003.

INTRODUCTION: As part of the global strategic plan to reduce the number of measles deaths in India, the state of Tamilnadu aims at > or =95% measles vaccination coverage. A study was conducted to measure overall coverage levels for the Poondi Primary Health Center (PPHC), a rural health-care facility in Tiruvallur District, and to determine whether any of the PPHC's six health subcenters had coverage levels <95%. METHODS: The Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) method was used to identify health subcenters in the PPHC area with measles vaccination coverage levels <95% among children aged 12-23 months. Lemeshow and Taber sampling plans were used to determine that the measles vaccination status of 73 children aged 12--23 months had to be assessed in each health subcenter coverage area, with a 5% level of significance and a decision value of two. If more than two children were unvaccinated, the null hypothesis (i.e., that coverage in the health subcenter was low [<95%]) was not rejected. If the number of unvaccinated children was two or fewer, the null hypothesis was rejected, and coverage in the subcenter was considered to be good (i.e., > or =95%). All data were pooled in a stratified sample to estimate overall total coverage in the PPHC area. RESULTS: For two (33.3%) of the six health subcenters, more than two children were unvaccinated (i.e., coverage was <95%). Combining results from all six health subcenters generated a coverage estimate of 97.7% (95% confidence interval = 95.7-98.8) on the basis of 428 (97.7%) of 438 children identified as vaccinated. CONCLUSION: LQAS techniques proved useful in identifying small health areas with lower vaccination coverage, which helps to target interventions. Monthly review of vaccination coverage by subcenter and village is recommended to identify pockets of unvaccinated children and to maintain uniform high coverage in the PPHC area.

Catchment Area, Health↗
PubMed2005

Trends of case detection and other indicators of leprosy in China during 1985-2002.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trends of case detection and other indicators of leprosy in China during 1985-2002. METHODS: Data reported by each province were collected by China National Leprosy Database in Nanjing P.R. China. All data about registered cases were put into computer for analysis. RESULTS: From 1985 to 2002, a total of 49,477 new leprosy cases had been detected. Among them, 69.5% were multibacillary cases and 25.4% had grade 2 disability. The child cases aged below 15 years accounted for 3.74% of total cases. Totally, 5824 cases and 303 cases relapsed after dapsone (DDS) mono-therapy and multidrug therapy (MDT), respectively. Case detection showed a marked reduction from 0.47/100,000 in 1985 to 0.18/100,000 in 1993 although there were several spurts due to operational factors. From 1994, case detection showed no significant decline. The grade 2 disability among new patients decreased from 31.4% in 1985 to 23.4% in 2002. The child case detection rate among new cases fluctuated between 2.70%-3.56% from 1999 to 2002. The incidence of relapse declined after the introduction of DDS mono-therapy. However, it increased after the introduction of MDT. CONCLUSION: China experiences in leprosy control show that it will take a long time with continuing present leprosy control activities to bring down the case detection and other indicators to a very low level even after reaching the elimination goal of leprosy.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Application of lot quality assurance sampling for leprosy elimination monitoring--examination of some critical factors.

BACKGROUND: The concept of elimination of an infectious disease is different from eradication and in a way from control as well. In disease elimination programmes the desired reduced level of prevalence is set up as the target to be achieved in a practical time frame. Elimination can be considered in the context of national or regional levels. Prevalence levels depend on occurrence of new cases and thus could remain fluctuating. There are no ready pragmatic methods to monitor the progress of leprosy elimination programmes. We therefore tried to explore newer methods to answer these demands. With the lowering of prevalence of leprosy to the desired level of 1 case per 10000 population at the global level, the programme administrators' concern will be shifted to smaller areas e.g. national and sub-national levels. For monitoring this situation, we earlier observed that lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS), a quality control tool in industry was useful in the initially high endemic areas. However, critical factors such as geographical distribution of cases and adoption of cluster sampling design instead of simple random sampling design deserve attention before LQAS could generally be recommended. The present exercise was aimed at validating applicability of LQAS, and adopting these modifications for monitoring leprosy elimination in Tamil Nadu state, which was highly endemic for leprosy. METHODS: A representative sample of 64000 people drawn from eight districts of Tamil Nadu state, India, with maximum allowable number of 25 cases was considered, using LQAS methodology to test whether leprosy prevalence was at or below 7 per 10000 population. Expected number of cases for each district was obtained assuming Poisson distribution. Goodness of fit for the observed and expected cases (closeness of the expected number of cases to those observed) was tested through chi(2). Enhancing factor (design effect) for sample size was obtained by computing the intraclass correlation. RESULTS: The survey actually covered a population of 62157 individuals, of whom 56469 (90.8%) were examined. Ninety-six cases were detected and this number far exceeded the critical value of 25. The number of cases for each district and the number of cases in the entire surveyed area both followed Poisson distribution. The intraclass correlation coefficients were close to zero and the design effect was observed to be close to one. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the LQAS exercises leprosy prevalence in the state of Tamil Nadu in India was above 7 per 10000. LQAS method using clusters was validated for monitoring leprosy elimination in high endemic areas. Use of cluster sampling makes this method further useful as a rapid assessment procedure. This method needs to be tested for its applicability in moderate and low endemic areas, where the sample size may need increasing. It is further possible to consider LQAS as a monitoring tool for elimination programmes with respect to other disease conditions.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Utility of serodiagnostic tests for leprosy: a study in an endemic population in South India.

In order to evaluate the usefulness of natural disaccharide (PGL1) and 35 kDa antigens based serology in diagnosis of leprosy and in detecting high risk groups for leprosy, this study was conducted in an endemic population in South India. Out of 3346 cases and their households and neighbouring household contacts, serum samples from 2994 and 2875 individuals were screened for antibodies against PGL1 and 35kDa antigens respectively. While the overall positivity for contacts and leprosy cases was 3.3% for PGL1 antibody, the positivity for 35 kDa antibody was 6.3%. The positivity for contact population was 2.7% and 5.4% for PGL1 and 35 kDa antibodies, respectively. Lepromatous and borderline lepromatous patients showed positivity of 35.1% for PGL1 antibody and 45.7% for 35 kDa antibody. Follow-up of contacts showed that the majority (>90%) remained seronegative for both the antibodies and most of the new cases emerged from the seronegative group. The study clearly indicates that specific serological assays are not sensitive enough for application, both for diagnosis and for identifying any individual at risk for leprosy in the south Indian endemic population.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Components of small area variation in fertility rates among married women in south India.

OBJECTIVE: To adapt and develop a method for finding out what proportion of the variation among small areas in the number of births to married women is excess (systematic) variation over and above the chance (random) variation. METHODS: We adopted a two-stage sampling procedure to select 20 sub-centres in south India. We contacted all households and collected information on recent births and socioeconomic variables from all ever married women aged 15-49 years. Systematic and random components of variance were estimated using Poisson regression, adjusting for socioeconomic factors. RESULTS: Of the observed variance in fertility, 65% is explained by the estimated systematic variation. Though many important explanatory variables are considered, the systematic variance is significant mainly among illiterate women, those aged under 18 years at marriage, the marginalized population, and those with labourer husbands. CONCLUSIONS: Poisson regression can be adapted to estimate the random and systematic components of variation in fertility among small areas. The systematic component of variance can further be adjusted for socioeconomic factors. Identification of the significant predictors will help health planners develop necessary interventions at the small area level.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

An institutional outbreak of leptospirosis in Chennai, South India.

The emergence of an outbreak of leptospirosis in a nurses' hostel in Chennai presented a challenge to identify and control the source of the outbreak. Sixty-nine residents and staff members were interviewed to assess exposure factors. Blood samples from the acute and convalescent patients were tested with the Microscopic Agglutination Test using the serovars prevalent in Chennai. Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) was conducted on serum and water samples. Based on preliminary investigation, control measures with standard hygienic measures were instituted. The attack rate was 35%. The epidemic curve suggested continuous or intermittent exposure to infection over a five-week period. Twenty residents (three asymptomatic) developed laboratory confirmed Leptospira icterohemorrhagiae. Residents collected water from an underground storage tank that was filled twice weekly from a mobile water tanker with a bucket on a rope, and the tank was usually left open. PCR tests confirmed the presence of leptospires from this water. Other control measures included cleaning the large backyard with its many stray dogs and rats, chlorinating water supplies, boiling drinking water and health education. No further cases occurred twelve days after implementing control measures. Access to clean water, not only for drinking but also for bathing, brushing and washing is essential to prevent water-borne outbreaks.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

A study of antifungal antibiotic production by Streptomyces chattanoogensis MTCC 3423 using full factorial design.

AIMS: To determine the correct levels of the three process parameters identified as the most important for maximum production of antifungal antibiotic by the newly isolated strain of Streptomyces chattanoogensis MTCC 3423. METHODS AND RESULTS: The three independent variables, namely concentration of carbon source (glucose), nitrogen source (soybean meal) and temperature of incubation, were found to be the most important for production of antifungal antibiotic by the isolate Streptomyces chattanoogensis MTCC 3423 from a one-factor-at-a-time study. These variables were varied at three levels in 27 experiments using full factorial design. The results were analysed using statistical software for social sciences, SPSS (version 6.0). They indicated that the optimum combination of the three factors for maximum yield (263.63 U) of the antibiotic was concentration of carbon source (glucose) 5%, concentration of nitrogen source (soybean meal) 1% and temperature of incubation 30 degrees C. The antifungal antibiotic activity of the isolate was estimated against Candida albicans by bioassay. CONCLUSIONS: The S. chattanoogensis MTCC 3423 isolate was found to yield a maximum of 263.63 IU Nystatin ml-1 medium by manipulating the three process parameters of glucose, soybean meal and temperature of incubation. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: As process optimization by single-dimensional search is laborious and time consuming, and does not guarantee determination of optimal conditions, an attempt was made to use a more practical full factorial method. Even though antifungal antibiotic treatment and resistance data have been analysed using SPSS software, there are no reports on antifungal antibiotic production using SPSS.

Antifungal Agents↗
PubMed2001

Epidemiological profile of India: historical and contemporary perspectives.

Knowledge and understanding of the epidemiological profile is an essential pre-requisite to assess and address public health needs in the country and to enable efficient programme planning and management. The need for adequate and accurate health information and data to undertake such an exercise cannot be over-emphasized. The present effort is a modest attempt to critically analyse the epidemiological profile of India from the historical and contemporary perspective. In order to assess the successes achieved as well caution against the daunting challenges awaiting the country, parameters such as disease burden and health status indicators, are increasingly being used. Changes in the population age structure, improvements in the nation's economic status, altered life-styles of people and duality of disease burden testify to the demographic, development and health transition occurring in the country. Population stabilization, poverty alleviation, life-style modification, surveillance and control of communicable and non-communicable diseases constitute the major challenges demanding urgent attention in the future.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed2001

Prevalence of known diabetes in Chennai City.

AIM: To determine prevalence of known diabetes in those more than 20 years of age in Chennai city. METHODOLOGY: Urban population was selected for the survey. Assuming the prevalence of known diabetes as 5.0% in those aged > 20 years, the cluster sample size calculated to estimate it with 95% CI and +/- 10% precision, was 25800 individuals of all ages. This population obtained from 200 households in each of 30 randomly selected corporation divisions of the city, was surveyed by social workers by house to house enquiry. General information and health status of every member of the household were recorded on prescribed forms. This survey was conducted during January-July, 1998. RESULTS: Among 26,066 individuals of all ages 779 had known diabetes and 99.4% of them had type 2 diabetes. The prevalence of known diabetes was 2.9% for all ages and both sexes combined. Crude and age-standardized prevalence was 4.9% (95% CI 4.6-5.2) for those aged > 20 years. The standardized prevalence was 10.5% (95% CI 9.8 - 11.2) in those aged > or = 40 years. The prevalence was significantly high (P < 0.05) in females. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of known diabetes was low in total population but increased in those aged > 20 and further increased in those aged > or = 40 years. The causes for high prevalence in > or = 40 year age group needs to be explored in this population.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) for monitoring a leprosy elimination program.

In a statistical sense, prevalences of leprosy in different geographical areas can be called very low or rare. Conventional survey methods to monitor leprosy control programs, therefore, need large sample sizes, are expensive, and are time-consuming. Further, with the lowering of prevalence to the near-desired target level, 1 case per 10,000 population at national or subnational levels, the program administrator's concern will be shifted to smaller areas, e.g., districts, for assessment and, if needed, for necessary interventions. In this paper, Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS), a quality control tool in industry, is proposed to identify districts/regions having a prevalence of leprosy at or above a certain target level, e.g., 1 in 10,000. This technique can also be considered for identifying districts/regions at or below the target level of 1 per 10,000, i.e., areas where the elimination level is attained. For simulating various situations and strategies, a hypothetical computerized population of 10 million persons was created. This population mimics the actual population in terms of the empirical information on rural/urban distributions and the distribution of households by size for the state of Tamil Nadu, India. Various levels with respect to leprosy prevalence are created using this population. The distribution of the number of cases in the population was expected to follow the Poisson process, and this was also confirmed by examination. Sample sizes and corresponding critical values were computed using Poisson approximation. Initially, villages/towns are selected from the population and from each selected village/town households are selected using systematic sampling. Households instead of individuals are used as sampling units. This sampling procedure was simulated 1000 times in the computer from the base population. The results in four different prevalence situations meet the required limits of Type I error of 5% and 90% Power. It is concluded that after validation under field conditions, this method can be considered for a rapid assessment of the leprosy situation.

Computer Simulation↗
PubMed1999

SIMLEP: a simulation model for leprosy transmission and control.

SIMLEP is a computer program for modeling the transmission and control of leprosy which can be used to project epidemiologic trends over time, producing output on indicators such as prevalence, incidence and case-detection rates of leprosy. In SIMLEP, health states have been defined that represent immunologic conditions and stages of leprosy infection and disease. Three types of interventions are incorporated: vaccination, case detection and chemotherapy treatment. Uncertainties about leprosy have led to a flexible design in which the user chooses which of many aspects should be included in the model. These aspects include natural immunity, asymptomatic infection, type distribution of new cases, delay between onset of disease and start of chemotherapy, and mechanisms for leprosy transmission. An example run illustrates input and output of the program. The output produced by SIMLEP can be readily compared with observed data, which allows for validation studies. The support that SIMLEP can give to health policy research and actual decision making will depend upon the extent of validation that has been achieved. SIMLEP can be used to improve the understanding of observed leprosy trends, for example, in relation to early detection campaigns and the use of multidrug therapy, by exploring which combinations of assumptions can explain these trends. In addition, SIMLEP allows for scenario analysis in which the effects of control strategies combining different interventions can be simulated and evaluated.

BCG Vaccine↗
PubMed1998

Underutilization of the available services by the needy disabled leprosy patients in Government Leprosy Control Unit Puttoor, Chittoor district, Andhra Pradesh, South India.

This study was undertaken to find out the deformity profile, utilization of disability care services, factors associated with underutilization and the impact of educating leprosy patients with visible disabilities in self-care practices in the area covered by the LCU Chittoor. The disability prevalence rate in the area was 15 per 10,000 population. Training of the staff and teaching leprosy patients in self-care practices has shown a remarkable improvement in skin texture and ulcer situation of disabled leprosy patients.

Adolescent↗