Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to M D Gupte.
A simulation model for leprosy transmission and control has been developed with specific objectives. Several sensitivity experiments have been carried out by altering the various inputs based on empirical data combined with intelligent guessing. The outputs generated through these exercises were on the expected lines. While incremental exercises would improve the model, it can be used even at the existing stage as a tool for programme managers.
This paper examines whether the health administration can use lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) for identifying high prevalence areas for leprosy for initiating necessary corrective measures. The null hypothesis was that leprosy prevalence in the district was at or above ten per 10,000 and the alternative hypothesis was that it was at or below five per 10,000. A total of 25,500 individuals were to be examined with 17 as an acceptable maximum number of cases (critical value). Two-stage cluster sample design was adopted. The sample size need not be escalated as the estimated design effect was 1. During the first phase, the survey covered a population of 4,837 individuals out of whom 4,329 (89.5%) were examined. Thirty-five cases were detected and this number far exceeded the critical value. It was concluded that leprosy prevalence in the district should be regarded as having prevalence of more than ten per 10,000 and further examination of the population in the sample was discontinued. LQAS may be used as a tool by which one can identify high prevalence districts and target them for necessary strengthening of the programme. It may also be considered for certifying elimination achievement for a given area.
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LECs were carried out from 1998 to 2000 in eight counties of west China. The number of cases detected during the year of LECs was much higher than that detected by routine methods before the year of the LEC. However, the annual number of cases detected during the year after the LEC showed different patterns. One pattern is that the number of new cases detected in the year after the LEC declined to the level similar to that before the year of the LEC. The second pattern is that the number of new cases detected in the year after the LEC declined steeply to less than that detected before the year of the LEC. Following peak case-detection during the year of the LEC, a gradual decrease in the number of new cases was observed in the subsequent years. The repeat LEC brought a weakly rebounding peak case-detection during the year following the first LEC carried out 3 years earlier. The operational, epidemiological and technical factors influencing the trends of case-detection during the LECs are discussed.
Paucibacillary (PB) patients form a large segment of newly diagnosed leprosy patients and those who present with only two or three skin lesions could have problems with compliance. With prolonged anti-leprosy drug regimens that last over six months. ROM therapy, a one-dose regimen, offers an attractive alternative in treating such patients. We conducted a longitudinal study of 51 such PB patients, placing them in two groups at random: one receiving the standard PB-MDT regimen, and the other the ROM regimen. Patients were followed up for 2 years, with a comprehensive clinical examination done every six months. 14 patients, 7 in each group, also had their skin biopsies evaluated histopathologically at recruitment, at 6 months and at the end of 2 years. There was a consistent improvement of lesions in both the groups over time. The fall in granuloma fraction and the clearance of the initial bacterial index were seen in the histopathology of both groups. Although the PB-MDT regimen is an effective and robust one, the operational convenience and drug compliance with ROM could make it an acceptable, parallel regimen for PB patients when the disease is localized to 2 or 3 skin lesions.
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Clinical diagnosis is still the most useful tool for detecting early cases of leprosy in field research. In prophylaxis studies accuracy of clinical diagnosis of leprosy is important during intake as well as for measuring efficacy of the intervention. This paper reports our observations regarding the extent of inter-observer variations in clinical diagnosis of leprosy and its implications for a prophylaxis study. Information on 225 suspects and cases of leprosy, each examined independently by three senior workers after initial standardization, was used for this purpose. Agreement among the examiners regarding the presence of skin patch, thickened nerve trunk and sensory deficit was fairly high (Kappa = 0.7). Agreement on the presence of infiltration in a skin patch was not satisfactory (Kappa = 0.4-0.5). It was observed that in clinical diagnosis of leprosy, presence of skin patch and sensory deficit, as well as thickened nerve trunk and related anaesthesia were correlated observations. The influence of inter-observer variations on defining leprosy problem in the community can be quite large. The paper suggests some ways of overcoming the problem.
A Series of exercises were undertaken in order to develop methodology for consistency and reliability of clinical diagnosis of leprosy under field conditions in longitudinal studies. It was observed in initial studies that the field investigators could miss about 35% of cases of leprosy, mostly those with early manifestations. After training and experience, the proportion of missed cases came down to about 20%. In about 14% of females with patches suggestive of leprosy the patches were present in the covered areas of the body and so are likely to be missed during examination in field situations. One hundred forty two individuals with suspicious and definite leprosy lesions detected by paramedical workers were examined by a senior medical officer experienced in leprosy on two different occasions at an interval of three months for leprosy diagnosis. The concordance rates for diagnosis and classification of leprosy were about 80% and 70% respectively; and corresponding values for kappa were 0.59 and 0.62 similar to earlier experiences in inter-observer variation studies.
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ICRC vaccine is one of the candidate anti-leprosy vaccines under test in a large scale comparative vaccine in trial. The objectives of the present study was to study the sensitization potential, as measured by Rees' MLSA and lepromin, and reactogenicity of this vaccine preparation in the local population. The study included 368 'healthy' individuals aged 1-70 years. Each individual received either ICRC vaccine or normal saline (control) by random allocation. They were also tested with Rees' MLSA and lepromin-A, 12 weeks after vaccination. Reactions to Rees' MLSA were measured after 48 hours and those to lepromin-A after 48 hours and three weeks. Character and size of local response, at the vaccination site, were recorded at 3rd, 8th and 15th week after vaccination. The results of the study showed that healing of vaccination lesion was uneventful, the mean size of the lesion being 10.3 mm. The mean sizes of post-vaccination reactions, to Rees' MLSA and lepromin (both early and late reactions), were significantly higher in the vaccine group compared to that in the normal saline group; the sensitizing effect attributable to the vaccine was of the order of 3.5 mm, 1.7 mm and 2.2 mm respectively. In conclusion, the study has demonstrated that ICRC vaccine was 'safe' and produced significant sensitizing effect as measured by post-vaccination sensitization to Rees' MLSA and lepromin, in the local population.
M.w vaccine is one of the antileprosy vaccines under test in an ongoing comparative vaccine trial in South India. The objective of the present study was to examine the sensitizing ability, as measured by skin test reactions to Rees' MLSA and lepromin, and reactogenicity of M.w vaccine in the local population. Two doses of M.w, 1 x 10(9) bacilli and 5 x 10(9) bacilli, were used, in two separate studies of 395 and 400 "healthy" individuals aged 1-65 years. In each study, the study subjects received either M.w vaccine or normal saline (control), by random allocation. The results showed that healing of vaccination lesions was uneventful although the healing process was somewhat prolonged with the higher dose. The mean size of lesions was 7.0 mm and 9.5 mm with the low and high doses of the vaccine, respectively. The results also showed that M.w vaccine in a dose of 1 x 10(9) bacilli, failed to induce post-vaccination sensitization as measured by reactions to Rees' MLSA and by Fernandez and Mitsuda reactions to lepromin-A. However, when the dose of the vaccine was increased to 5 x 10(9) bacilli the mean sizes of post-vaccination reactions to Rees' MLSA and lepromin-A (both early and late) were significantly larger in the vaccine group compared to that in the control group. The sensitizing effect attributable to the vaccine was of the order of 1.5 mm to 1.8 mm.
A study was undertaken in Pudukottai district, Tamilnadu, India to test rapid assessment methods: viz (i) sample surveys with lower coverages for clinical examination in estimating the disease problem in the community, (ii) utility of registered case prevalence for estimating the actual prevalence in a given area, (iii) leprosy in school-going children and its utility in estimating leprosy prevalence in the community, and (iv) information on disability and smear positivity in estimating leprosy prevalence; and develop correction factors for estimating leprosy situation. A sample of 23 clusters from 582 clusters of contiguous villages and hamlets was further divided into two random sub-samples for two surveys with differing coverages. One team covered nine clusters comprising 34 villages with a population of 17,562 and examined 15,596 with a population of 26,927 and examined 16,622 (62%) persons for leprosy. The results showed that: (i) leprosy sample surveys with lowered coverages would tend to miss valuable information, in terms of quality and quantity; (ii) from 'known case' registers, to estimate the true burden of leprosy disease and to monitor its trend over time is inadequate; (iii) school surveys are of limited value for estimating the disease burden in the community or to monitor its trend over time; (iv) the number of smear-positive cases is to small to serve as an indicator for the total case load in the community; and (v) the prevalence of active disease and that of grade 2 disability in the community are poorly correlated. Reliable methods other than those used here need to be developed for evaluation and monitoring of the disease burden particularly in the post-MDT era.
BCG is one of the vaccines used, as control arm, in an ongoing large scale comparative leprosy vaccine trial in South India. The objective of the present study was to examine, in the local population, the sensitizing ability, as measured by skin test reactions to tuberculin, and reactogenecity, in terms of skin lesions at the site of vaccination, for the two batches of BCG vaccine used in the above trial. The study was undertaken in 816 tuberculin-negative, previously not vaccinated school children, aged five to 14 years. Each child received one of the two batches of BCG vaccine or normal saline (control), by random allocation. At 12 weeks from vaccination, character and size of local response, at the vaccination site, were recorded. At the same time, the children were retested with tuberculin and post-vaccination reactions to the test were measured after 72 hours. At three years after vaccination all available children were re-examined for the presence and size of BCG scar at the site of vaccination. It was found that healing of vaccination lesions was uneventful, with both batches of BCG. The mean size of the lesion was similar for the two batches, the overall mean being 6.3 mm. The mean size of post-vaccination tuberculin sensitivity increased with age, and it was 14.5 mm and 15.6 mm. The sensitizing effect attributable to the vaccine was 11 mm and 12 mm, for the two batches of BCG respectively. This study showed that the two batches of BCG, in a dose of 0.1 mg, used in the ongoing leprosy vaccine trial were acceptable in terms of vaccination lesion and were highly satisfactory in terms of development of hypersensitivity.