Does musculoskeletal function deteriorate in a predictable sequence in the elderly?
A variety of functions decline with aging, but whether losses occur in a predictable sequence is unknown. Improved understanding might facilitate the early detection and possible prevention of functional deterioration. We assessed self-reported difficulty with functional tasks in 288 community-dwelling elderly aged 65 to 97. We hypothesized that the ability to perform tasks involving strength, skill, and endurance (run errands, shop, yardwork or housework) would be lost first, followed by activities requiring less strength or mobility (rise from a chair with no hands, walk), followed by easier, but essential tasks (pick up clothes, rise from bed, lift a cup to the mouth). The patterns of decline were evaluated with Guttman scalograms. Picking up clothes and walking were reversed from the predicted order. Scale reliability was 0.92, indicating that functional decline is ordered; 75% of subjects fell into one of the modal sequence types. Analysis by self-reported presence of arthritis showed that 83% of nonarthritic subjects fit the predicted patterns (reliability = 0.95) versus 65% of arthritic subjects (reliability = 0.86), who tended to lose hand ability out of sequence. Sequential functional loss scales may tell more than the typical simple summation of functional loss, and may have predictive value to the clinician monitoring an elderly patient. If the sequence is accelerated or out of order, such as was seen in patients with arthritis, it may indicate the need for intervention. Examination of sequences of loss may help characterize adaptations to impairment and differences among subgroups.