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M E Lovely

Publications and source records attributed to M E Lovely.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Reducing nursing home use through community long-term care: an optimization analysis.

Can community services be made more effective in reducing nursing home use through better management of their mix and allocation? To test this idea, we used data from the National Long-Term Care Channeling Demonstration to estimate logistic regression models relating the use of various types of community services to nursing home use. We then used these estimates to form an objective function for a mathematical optimization procedure which minimizes total expected population nursing home use as a function of community service use, subject to a total expenditure constraint. We find through this simulated reallocation that, in theory, significant reductions in nursing home use can be produced without increasing total community expenditures.

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The cost-effectiveness of community services in a frail elderly population.

We use an integrated model incorporating simple principles of decision analysis and marginal cost analysis to discuss cost-effectiveness of community long-term care services as a substitute for nursing home care. By taking individuals as the unit of analysis and analyzing different types of community services separately, the model defines the targeting issue precisely and permits key policy parameters to be estimated empirically. When applied to data from the National Long Term Care Channeling Demonstration, 41% of those screened into the control group were found to have some potential for net long-term care cost reduction through program services.

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