The epidemiology of health effects of disasters.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to M F Lechat.
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Compulsory notification of leprosy in Portugal formed the basis for the establishment of a national patient registry used in an epidemiological study. Highest incidence rates were observed in the coastal counties in the middle of Portugal and particularly in the municipalities with a high annual rainfall. Peak incidence rates in males was observed at the age of 25-29 years against 50-59 in females. A continuous and increasing decline in incidence rates was observed throughout the observation period, 1946-80. Towards the end of the period the slopes of the incidence curves seemed to be identical with those observed in other countries where leprosy has previously been eradicated. This is consistent with the notion that towards the end of an endemic situation no new transmission of the disease occurs, and the incidence curve takes the shape of the right part of the distribution of incubation periods which apparently is uniform in leprosy, irrespective of time and place. The pattern observed in other areas during declining incidence rates, of an increase in age at onset by year of onset together with a lack of increase in age at onset by year of birth was confirmed by the Portuguese data, also consistent with a break in the transmission of the disease a long time before the final termination of the endemic situation.
The epidemiometric model of leprosy, built on Polambakkam, India, data, is used to compare the impact on incidence of dapsone and different multidrug therapy (MDT) strategies. The simulations show that generalization of MDT could have a dramatic impact on transmission of the disease. Relapses after MDT, although important from an individual point of view, have a negligible influence on the incidence. Introduction of MDT requires investments that, during the first few years of the program, are much greater than for dapsone monotherapy. These are, however, rapidly absorbed due to the rapidly declining number of new cases, particularly when MDT is not limited to multibacillary cases but is administered to all patients.
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Twenty-five cases of congenital rubella syndrome were recorded in 1,458,126 live births in 19 EUROCAT birth defects registries from 1980 to 1986. During the study period, the incidence declined steadily from 3.50 to 0.41 per 100,000 births. Rubella infection occurred in 12 multiparous women indicating failure in immunization programme.
This paper reviews the results of published and unpublished epidemiological studies on perinatal morbidity in Belgium. The most frequently studied variables are birthweight and gestational age, which are not only morbidity indicators but also morbidity and mortality predictors. Congenital anomalies are studied in Belgium through the results gathered by two regional birth defects registries, which have been operating since 1979. Major results of these registries are presented and discussed with relation to their implications on prevention policy. Subjective and reported health indicators are less commonly available for epidemiological studies, although some were collected in an interview survey conducted in 1981 in three districts of Wallonia. The results show important social inequalities and geographical disparities. Finally, the long-term consequences of perinatal problems are presented and discussed. A prospective study conducted at Leuven University Hospital on infants born between 1981 and 1986 suggests that improving survival of low-birthweight infants with appropriate perinatal care will not increase the number of handicapped children.
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Child bearing at an early age and prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis in pregnant women of advanced age, combined with selective abortion, make it possible to avoid the birth of many children with serious chromosomal anomalies. To see how many of such births were still avoidable in Europe, data from 16 regional EUROCAT registers of congenital anomalies in nine EEC countries were analysed. In the period 1979-1982 about 30% of children with unbalanced anomalies of autosomes were born (live- and still-births) to mothers over 35 years of age. This amounts to an estimated 1300 cases yearly in the entire population of the nine countries. The approach shows the possible use of registry data for monitoring effects of avoidance strategies.
The EUROCAT programme is a concerted action of the European Economic Community for the epidemiologic surveillance of congenital anomalies. Surveillance is based on a network of regional registries coordinated by a central registry. The programme started in 1979 and by 1987, 23 centres were participating, covering together more than 300,000 births per year. The surveillance process implies the selection of the anomalies possibly associated with environmental teratogens or mutagens, the definition of abnormal variations in the rate of these anomalies (the alarms), the establishment of base-line rate and the continuous monitoring of rate. The programme is evaluated by reference to four criteria: the sensitivity of the system in detecting teratogens or mutagens, the specificity of alarms, the rapidity in warning of alarm and in investigating their causes, and the programme efficiency expressed as its cost-utility ratio.
The quality of national perinatal mortality statistics was evaluated from a survey in nine maternity hospitals in Hainaut, Belgium (total births: 7862). The overall completeness of perinatal death registration was 86%. Under-registration was especially frequent in low birth weight babies. In 69% of cases, the birth weight value reported on death certificates was in exact agreement with the value in hospital records. Using detailed categories of causes, there was, in 37% of cases, agreement between the underlying cause on death certificates and the main cause identified in hospital records. Using gross categories of causes, the level of agreement was 56%. Disagreement was mostly due to the lack of specificity of the underlying cause on death certificates. The authors suggest ways to improve the quality of registration.
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Analysis of problems related to the classification of perinatal mortality was made possible through the evaluation of data collected from the medical records of nine maternity hospitals in South-Hainaut. Medical records of 135 fetal and early neonatal deaths were investigated. Perinatal mortality statistics were compiled on the basis of five different definitions of perinatal mortality. Depending on which definition was used, perinatal mortality varied between 10.2% and 15.1%. This study shows that reporting of perinatal mortality in hospital registries according to the legal requirement is incomplete. Standard data should be collected for each pregnancy product, on the basis of clearly defined, national and international accepted definitions. It is suggested that the 1975 recommendations of the World Health Organization (International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition), be used for definition and classification of perinatal mortality.
The effects on health of the 1980 earthquake in southern Italy were surveyed retrospectively. The sample population includes 3619 people living in seven villages situated near the epicentre. Deaths were one hundred times and injury rates more than five times higher in trapped than in non-trapped victims. The possibility for escape was crucial for survival and depended on the type of building. Most of the rescue and relief work was carried out within a few days by unprepared local people who concentrated assistance on people sharing the same dwelling. The results suggest that the emergency phase for medical care was limited to the three to four days after impact. During the 18 months following the quake, mortality rates in injured (13.7%) and non-injured victims (15.8%) were similar. These results point to the need to establish, in each disaster prone area, a health evaluation system on which effective disaster relief and especially the preparedness of the community can be based.
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