Evaluation of chest pain in the emergency department.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to M F Sturman.
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A study was undertaken to test the utility of a strict Bayesian formulation for the diagnosis of coronary disease. Using known probabilities of the disease for men and women in four different age groups and by estimating the probabilities of disease in patients with four important risk factors, we were able to estimate the probability of coronary disease in 512 different subsets of patients. We found that it was not possible to rigourously apply Bayes formula because neither the probability of the risk factor given the disease nor in patients without disease was obtainable in the medical literature. We conclude that to use Bayes formula without equivocation in coronary diagnosis does not appear possible in the present state of statistical knowledge. Rather, an expert system in the form of a knowledge-base would appear to be more achievable.
An acute abdominal pain program run on a microcomputer is described and the experiences tabulated for a series of 194 patients seen in a general hospital setting. The initial diagnostic accuracy of the program compared favorably with that of attending physicians and house staff, and suggests that improvements in the program can lead to a more effective and more accurate abdominal pain program. The possibilities for developing other programs, particularly chest pain, fever, and other global categories, are obvious. We are presently working on a chest pain program and a diagnostic strategy program. Based on the results reported here, we believe that several factors could improve program accuracy. For example, with additional clinical studies and refinement of the program structure, with more expert knowledge, and with further algorithmic development, the program could be made to outperform the average clinician and possibly approach the level of true clinical experts in abdominal pain diagnosis by mimicking their analysis. Indeed, since a program of this type is capable of incorporating the expertise of many different clinicians, it has the potential of outperforming any given expert in specific cases.
A fictional study of patient preference was conducted in 1,534 women who received both laparoscopy and a pelvic examination plus pelvic ultrasonography. The overwhelming majority of women (87%) preferred laparoscopy, with most patients (78%) indicating they would undergo a repeat examination if requested. Hospital occupancy rose 24% while gynecologists' incomes rose 58%. Radiologists' incomes declined 14%. Seven deaths occurring in conjunction with laparoscopy were determined to be statistically insignificant. Based on these findings, it is suggested that the pelvic examination be replaced by routine laparoscopy.
Tritiated estradiol injected intravenously into 11 mongrel dogs sacrificed at 3, 7, 10, 17, and 60 min showed maximum uptake in the adrenal gland at 3-7 min. The concentrations of radioactivity in the adrenal in percent dose per gram equaled that from 131I-19-iodocholesterol. If a 131I-estradiol could be synthesized that would concentrate similarly in the adrenal, it would offer the advantage of almost instantaneous imaging after the tracer injection and a lower radiation dose.
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