Mortality among drug injectors and notified addicts.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to M Frischer.
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The behaviors and attributes of 503 Scottish injecting drug users were modeled using the linear structural equations program LISREL. Drug use was directly related to prison experience, sexual activity, sharing of injecting equipment, and prostitution. Although the prevalence of HIV among the sample was low (2.0%), the pattern of risk behaviors observed in the data affords potential for future spread of the virus. Harm reduction measures taken by injectors in response to the threat posed by AIDS were inversely related to drug use but, more encouragingly, directly related to awareness of the disease, treatment for drug use, and prostitution.
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OBJECTIVE: To use research and surveillance studies in Glasgow (Scotland, UK) to estimate the number of current injectors infected with HIV, the total number of injectors infected up to the end of 1990 and the recent incidence of infection. DESIGN: (A) Prevalence of injecting drug use was estimated using log-linear modelling. (B) Prevalence of HIV infection was determined from voluntary testing of a community-wide sample of injectors. (C) The number of infected current injectors was predicted by combining the distributions generated by (A) and (B). (D) Data on known HIV-positive injectors were used in conjunction with (C) to forecast the cumulative number of infected injectors. RESULTS: The number of current injectors was estimated to be 9400; the prevalence of HIV infection among 447 injectors recruited to the HIV prevalence study during 1990 was 1.1%. From these data, the number of HIV-positive current injectors in 1990 was estimated to be between 52 and 138. Between 1985 and 1990, 110 known HIV-positive injectors were registered or received treatment in Glasgow for HIV-related diseases; the total number of cases estimated to have occurred during this period was between 110 and 300. The incidence of infection in Glasgow during 1990 was likely to have been low in light of the finding that only one case in the prevalence study had not previously been diagnosed HIV-positive. CONCLUSIONS: Linkage of datasets from a variety of sources and studies has enabled the substantial refinement of estimates of the number of injectors and the proportion infected with HIV in Glasgow up to 1990.
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The prevalence of injecting drug use in Glasgow during 1989 was derived using log-linear analysis to model the relationship between unnamed identifier information obtained from Strathclyde Police, the Scottish HIV-test Reporting Scheme and Treatment Agencies. Whereas previous attempts have required, although rarely demonstrated, independence between samples, the method adopted here did not necessitate this assumption. The best model resulted from taking the dependency between the HIV-test and treatment samples into account, and yielded an estimate of 9424 (95% confidence interval +/- 2460), which represents 11-19 per 1000 population aged 15-55 in Glasgow. The estimated male:female ratio was 2.64:1 and the modal injecting drug user (IDU) aged 20-24. While there are no indicators that prevalence has begun to decline, the extent of the hidden population suggests that around 1 in 7 were receiving some form of treatment for drug use. Available evidence suggests that buprenorphine, temazepam and amphetamines, rather than heroin, are the most commonly injected drugs. These findings should facilitate assessment of the service requirements of this group, and provide a basis from which the number of IDUs infected with HIV and the number likely to progress to AIDS can be determined.
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Using modelling techniques derived from behavioural ecology, unnamed identifier data from a variety of partial samples of injecting drug users [IUDs] were used to estimate the prevalence of this population in Glasgow during 1989. The model yielded an estimate of 9424 [95% confidence interval +/- 2460] which represents a prevalence rate of 15 per 1000 population aged 15-55. The estimated male:female ratio was 2.64:1 and the modal IDU aged 20-24. These figures should facilitate assessment of the service requirements of this group and provide a basis from which the number of IDUs infected with HIV and the number likely to progress to AIDS can be determined. As the methodology required to facilitate reliable prevalence estimates utilizes relatively easy to obtain information it could be repeated in other urban centres where drug injecting is known to occur.
This paper presents analysis of the National Morbidity Surveys carried out in 1956, 1972 and 1982. Over this period an increasing proportion of middle-aged and elderly patients consulted their general practitioners (GPs) and the average patient consulted for more illnesses. This rise in reported morbidity, particularly for circulatory and musculo-skeletal illnesses, occurred during a period of decline in the mortality rate, which suggests that the latter is a poor indicator of population health. The sharp reduction in the consultation rate between 1956 and 1972 suggests that GPs were limiting their role to primary assessment. However, despite a resurgence in the total number of consultations by 1982, the rapid increase in morbidity between 1972 and 1982 further eroded the levels of consultation per episode of illness. Given that the age-structure of the elderly population is gradually shifting upwards and that each generation reports more illness than its predecessor, GPs can expect to face increasing levels of demand for services from elderly patients.
Fourier analysis was used to investigate the role of perceptual information in controlling repetitive finger tapping in a patient with unilateral Parkinsonian tremor. The results are interpreted in the context of Von Holst's theory of relative co-ordination, and demonstrate the subject's reliance on extrinsic information to counteract tremor when performing voluntary repetitive movement.
Evidence of reduced levels of needle sharing among injecting drug users (IDUs) has largely been confined to IDUs attending needle exchanges or receiving treatment. In this paper we present the results of a serial cross-sectional study of needle sharing conducted in Glasgow using a multisite sampling strategy. Of the estimated 9400 IDUs in the city, 503 were interviewed in 1990 and 535 in 1991. The proportion of IDUs reporting injecting with, or passing on used needles and syringes in the last 6 months fell significantly as did the number of individuals from whom equipment was received or passed on to. The impact of this level of sharing has been limited in terms of HIV transmission; the prevalence of HIV among the 1990 sample was 2.0% and 1.1% for the 1991 sample. However, the fact that third of IDUs in Glasgow continue to inject, even occasionally, with used equipment gives cause for concern in view of the other pathologies known to be associated with poor injecting hygiene.
The first HIV-positive diagnosis among injecting drug users (IDU) in Glasgow was made in 1985. By the end of 1987 prevalence among IDU receiving voluntary attributable tests was 4.8%. Since 1990, an annual cross-sectional survey of HIV prevalence and risk behaviours among 500 current Glasgow IDU has provided a more representative sample. Anonymously-tested saliva samples obtained from respondents revealed prevalence rates of 1.8%, 1.2% and 1.0% in 1990, 1991 and 1992 respectively. Since 1987 a wide range of measures aimed at reducing HIV-related risk behaviour among IDU has been introduced and maintained in Glasgow. Against this background, there is evidence that IDU in the city have reduced their risk behaviours. The findings reported here suggest that implementing harm-reduction measures when prevalence is low may inhibit the rapid dissemination of HIV.
In Glasgow, during the period January 1990 to December 1992, 4 different methods were used to determine HIV prevalence among female prostitutes who inject drugs: the surveillance of prostitutes undergoing voluntary named tests, an unlinked anonymous survey of prostitutes attending a health care drop-in centre, a community-wide voluntary anonymous survey of injecting drug users including female prostitutes, and a voluntary anonymous survey of female prostitutes recruited in Glasgow's red-light area. HIV prevalence varied from 1.2 to 4.7% though overlapping confidence intervals indicated no significant differences. A comparison of each approach leads the authors to suggest that the former 2 methods which are relatively inexpensive should be conducted, if possible, on high risk groups such as prostitutes and injecting drug users on a continuous basis. If these indicate HIV rates which are stable and less than 5%, implementation of more sophisticated voluntary anonymous approaches need only be done every 3 to 4 years. However, if rates are unstable and/or greater than 5% then such surveys should be initiated more frequently, perhaps biannually.