Mathematical models of tick-borne disease transmission.
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Journal Article↗
Biomedical subjects
M I Meltzer
Publications and source records attributed to M I Meltzer.
Responses of the ticks Amblyomma hebraeum and A. variegatum to known or potential components of the aggregation-attachment pheromone. IV. Attachment stimulation of nymphs.
Ten known or potential components of the aggregation-attachment pheromone (AAP) of the ticks Amblyomma hebraeum and A. variegatum, as well as a mixture of these components and extracts of prefed males of the two species, were tested as attachment stimulants for nymphs. Unfed nymphs were confined in linen bags on the ears of rabbits that had been treated with the test compounds, mixture or extracts; the numbers attached were recorded after 24 h. In A. hebraeum, attachment was induced by four compounds (2-methyl propanoic acid, methyl salicylate, o-nitrophenol and salicylaldehyde), the mixture and extracts from both species. In A. variegatum, attachment was induced by three compounds (methyl salicylate, o-nitrophenol and salicylaldehyde), the mixture and extracts from both species. Methyl salicylate and o-nitrophenol are primary components of the AAP of both A. hebraeum and A. variegatum. 2-methyl propanoic acid is a species-specific attachment stimulant for A. hebraeum. Salicylaldehyde, a phenolic compound, is not a naturally occurring AAP component. Nymphs of both species respond to fewer attachment stimulants than the adults and, as shown by their respective host ranges, are less dependent on the AAP in the regulation of attachment than the adults.
Animals↗
A comparison of the attraction of nymphs and adults of the ticks Amblyomma hebraeum and A. variegatum to carbon dioxide and the male-produced aggregation-attachment pheromone.
The attraction of nymphs of the ticks Amblyomma hebraeum and A. variegatum to CO2 alone and CO2 together with the male-produced aggregation-attachment pheromone (AAP) was investigated. Matching experiments on the attraction of the adults of the two species were run for comparison. Nymphs of A. hebraeum were strongly attracted to sources of CO2 and CO2/AAP at distances of 10 and 15 m. At distances of 20 and 25 m significantly more nymphs were attracted to CO2/AAP than to CO2 alone. Adults of A. hebraeum were not attracted to CO2 alone at any distance; these ticks were attracted to CO2 and AAP together for distances of up to 25 m. The patterns of attraction of nymphs and adults of A. variegatum at 10 m were similar to those recorded in A. hebraeum.
Animals↗
The use of time-series analysis to forecast bont tick (Amblyomma hebraeum) infestations in Zimbabwe.
Studying the dynamics of tick infestations on cattle is an essential step in developing optimal strategies for tick control. Successful strategic tick control requires accurate predictions of when tick infestations will reach predetermined threshold levels. In the case of Amblyomma hebraeum, earlier work has shown that there is no consistent pattern of seasonal activity. This means that a statistical model for predicting A. hebraeum infestations cannot reliably use climatic factors as the only independent variables. An alternative method is to apply time-series, or auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA), analysis which uses only the past population patterns to predict future trends. This technique was applied to a data set consisting of 108 weekly tick counts of A. hebraeum (adult males, standard females, flat females and standard nymphs), conducted at an experimental station in southeastern Zimbabwe. The ability of the ARMA models to fit and predict actual tick infestations was judged using two sets of criteria. The first set focused on the goodness-of-fit, and used the adjusted R2 values, Q statistic and the Akaike Information Criteria. The second set of criteria measured the forecasting accuracy of an estimated equation, and consisted of regressing a 9-period forecast against an actual out-of-sample data set not used in the estimation process. The root mean square error of the forecast was also considered when comparing several models for the same data set. Using these criteria, the models estimated using the ARMA technique were judged to both fit and forecast with sufficient accuracy to warrant their use in strategic tick control. Although the success of using ARMA to forecast A. hebraeum is partly due to the non-seasonal behavior of the species, the results presented here suggest that it is worthwhile exploring the use of ARMA techniques to model the dynamics of other tick species. Where independent variables exert considerable influence on the dynamics of a tick species, these variables can be incorporated into an ARMA-style model.
Animals↗
Comparison of the attachment rates of males of the ticks Amblyomma hebraeum and A. variegatum to cattle, sheep and rabbits in the absence of aggregation-attachment pheromone.
Losses in domestic ruminants caused by heartwater (Cowdria ruminantium infection) in Zimbabwe and Mozambique are greater when the vector is Amblyomma hebraeum than when the vector is A. variegatum. It has been suggested that the epidemiology of the disease may be influenced by the rates at which unfed adults of these two tick species attach to uninfested hosts (i.e. in the absence of the male-produced aggregation-attachment pheromone [AAP]). In this study we confined unfed males of A. hebraeum and A. variegatum on uninfested cattle, sheep and rabbits and recorded their attachment rates. Males of both species attached more rapidly on cattle than on sheep or rabbits. Males of A. hebraeum attached more rapidly than males of A. variegatum on all three host species. The differences in the attachment rates between the two species were much greater on sheep and rabbits than on cattle. The findings suggest that in the absence of AAP, pioneer males of both tick species may attach to cattle, and pioneer males of A. hebraeum may also attach to sheep. The differences in the attachment rates of A. hebraeum and A. variegatum provide a possible explanation for observed differences in the epidemiology of heartwater associated with these two vector species.
Analysis of Variance↗
Seasonal occurrence of the bont tick (Amblyomma hebraeum) in the southern lowveld of Zimbabwe.
The seasonal occurrence of the bont tick Amblyomma hebraeum was recorded over 2 years on 20 Brahman cattle held in a 240-ha paddock at Mbizi in southeastern Zimbabwe. The cattle were infested with all life cycle stages throughout the study period, and no clearly defined seasonal patterns were recorded. Males remained attached for up to about 6 months, and consequently accumulated on the cattle and outnumbered females considerably. The cattle did not acquire resistance to A. hebraeum and the abundance of the adults increased steadily over the 2 years of sampling. The occurrence of adults and nymphs on hosts appeared to be largely independent of weather, and these stages were active over the entire range of temperature and relative humidity recorded during the study period. It was concluded that unfed adults and nymphs are able to engage in host-seeking irrespective of weather conditions as they do not await hosts on the vegetation but emerge from protected microhabitats in response to specific stimuli from hosts, notably, carbon dioxide and the aggregation-attachment pheromone emitted by attached males. This behavior may explain the reported absence of a consistent pattern of seasonal occurrence of A. hebraeum at different locations in southeastern Africa.
Animals↗
Assessing the costs and benefits of an oral vaccine for raccoon rabies: a possible model.
Any cost-benefit analysis of the use of an oral vaccine to control raccoon rabies should include calculating both costs and benefits in terms of $/unit area. Further, cost savings must be adjusted to match the stages of an epizootic: pre-epizootic, epizootic, and post-epizootic. A generic model, which can be adapted to different sites, illustrates the use of threshold analysis to link distribution costs, cost savings, bait density, and vaccine price. Initial results indicate the need to lower the cost of the vaccine, continue research to determine optimal bait densities, and examine distribution plans that do not require continued protection of areas in which raccoon rabies was eliminated through previous vaccination programs.
Administration, Oral↗
The economic impact of a bioterrorist attack: are prevention and postattack intervention programs justifiable?
Understanding and quantifying the impact of a bioterrorist attack are essential in developing public health preparedness for such an attack. We constructed a model that compares the impact of three classic agents of biologic warfare (Bacillus anthracis, Brucella melitensis, and Francisella tularensis) when released as aerosols in the suburb of a major city. The model shows that the economic impact of a bioterrorist attack can range from an estimated $477.7 million per 100,000 persons exposed (brucellosis scenario) to $26.2 billion per 100,000 persons exposed (anthrax scenario). Rapid implementation of a postattack prophylaxis program is the single most important means of reducing these losses. By using an insurance analogy, our model provides economic justification for preparedness measures.
Anthrax↗
The cost effectiveness of vaccinating against Lyme disease.
To determine the cost effectiveness of vaccinating against Lyme disease, we used a decision tree to examine the impact on society of six key components. The main measure of outcome was the cost per case averted. Assuming a 0.80 probability of diagnosing and treating early Lyme disease, a 0.005 probability of contracting Lyme disease, and a vaccination cost of $50 per year, the mean cost of vaccination per case averted was $4,466. When we increased the probability of contracting Lyme disease to 0.03 and the cost of vaccination to $100 per year, the mean net savings per case averted was $3,377. Since few communities have average annual incidences of Lyme disease >0. 005, economic benefits will be greatest when vaccination is used on the basis of individual risk, specifically, in persons whose probability of contracting Lyme disease is >0.01.
Antigens, Surface↗
The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention.
We estimated the possible effects of the next influenza pandemic in the United States and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions. Using death rates, hospitalization data, and outpatient visits, we estimated 89,000 to 207,000 deaths; 314,000 to 734,000 hospitalizations; 18 to 42 million outpatient visits; and 20 to 47 million additional illnesses. Patients at high risk (15% of the population) would account for approximately 84% of all deaths. The estimated economic impact would be US$71.3 to $166.5 billion, excluding disruptions to commerce and society. At $21 per vaccinee, we project a net savings to society if persons in all age groups are vaccinated. At $62 per vaccinee and at gross attack rates of 25%, we project net losses if persons not at high risk for complications are vaccinated. Vaccinating 60% of the population would generate the highest economic returns but may not be possible within the time required for vaccine effectiveness, especially if two doses of vaccine are required.
Adolescent↗
Costs and benefits of a subtype-specific surveillance system for identifying Escherichia coli O157:H7 outbreaks.
We assessed the societal costs and benefits of a subtype-specific surveillance system for identifying outbreak-associated Escherichia coli O157:H7 infections. Using data from Colorado, we estimated that if it averted five cases annually, the system would recover all its costs.
Colorado↗
Modeling potential responses to smallpox as a bioterrorist weapon.
We constructed a mathematical model to describe the spread of smallpox after a deliberate release of the virus. Assuming 100 persons initially infected and 3 persons infected per infectious person, quarantine alone could stop disease transmission but would require a minimum daily removal rate of 50% of those with overt symptoms. Vaccination would stop the outbreak within 365 days after release only if disease transmission were reduced to <0.85 persons infected per infectious person. A combined vaccination and quarantine campaign could stop an outbreak if a daily quarantine rate of 25% were achieved and vaccination reduced smallpox transmission by > or = 33%. In such a scenario, approximately 4,200 cases would occur and 365 days would be needed to stop the outbreak. Historical data indicate that a median of 2,155 smallpox vaccine doses per case were given to stop outbreaks, implying that a stockpile of 40 million doses should be adequate.
Biological Warfare↗