Improved prediction of metastasis in tongue carcinomas, combining vascular and nuclear tumor parameters.
BACKGROUND: Predicting the presence of metastasis, based on tumor or tumor-related characteristics is of utmost importance. The authors studied the significance of tumor DNA features and tumor-related angiogenesis to predict the occurrence of metastasis in squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) of the tongue. METHODS: Paraplast blocks from resection specimens of 20 metastasized and 20 nonmetastasized SCCs of the tongue with a minimum follow-up of 24 months were used. Tissue sections were stained with anti-CD34 monoclonal antibodies for vessel visualization, and according to Feulgen to stain DNA. Using image analysis, data from both stainings were computed for each of the 40 carcinomas. A logistic regression model to predict the presence of metastasis, based on vascular and nuclear morphology features, was developed. RESULTS: The intratumor variation of chromatin condensation and the percentage vessels smaller than 5 microm in diameter were selected for the model. The model correctly predicted metastasis in 90% of patients and excluded metastasis correctly in 75% of nonmetastasized tumors. Taking into account the prevalence of metastasis in SCC of the tongue of between 30% and 60%, this means a predictive value for a negative outcome of between 95% and 83%. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed model shows an improvement of predictive values compared with previous models with single parameters. Therefore, a multiparameter model appears to predict the multiparameter process of metastasis better.