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Biomedical subjects

Marc Mangel

Publications and source records attributed to Marc Mangel.

12 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Evaluation of mortality trajectories in evolutionary biodemography.

An important task in evolutionary biodemography is to determine the schedule of survival and reproduction as the outcome of natural selection acting on life histories. We do this by using a model in which the state of the organism is characterized by mass and accumulated damage, both of which are affected by activity and which affect the rate of mortality. Focusing on growth during the juvenile period, we determine the level of activity that maximizes reproductive value. Given this, we are able to project forward and determine the trajectory of mortality for an individual following the optimal life history, given the physiological and reproductive parameters. We show that there are two main classes of juvenile mortality trajectories: U-shaped (such as recently reported for prereproductive humans) and steadily declining and we are able to connect the shape of the mortality trajectory with the physiological and reproductive parameters characterizing the life history. Our work shows the importance of state in models of evolutionary biodemography and the power of modern computational methods to illuminate biological process.

Aging↗
PubMed2006

Life histories and the evolution of aging in bacteria and other single-celled organisms.

The disposable soma theory of aging was developed to explore how differences in lifespans and aging rates could be linked to life history trade-offs. Although generally applied for multicellular organisms, it is also useful for exploring life history strategies of single-celled organisms such as bacteria. Motivated by recent research of aging in E. coli, we explore the effects of aging on the fitness of simple single-celled organisms. Starting from the Euler-Lotka equation, we propose a mathematical model to explore how a finite reproductive lifespan affects fitness and resource allocation in simple organisms. This model provides quantitative predictions that have the potential for direct comparison with experiment, providing an opportunity to test the disposable soma theory more directly.

Adaptation, Biological↗
PubMed2006

Using life history and persistence criteria to prioritize habitats for management and conservation.

In many marine and terrestrial systems, individuals of a focal species may be found in habitats that are neither essential nor of particular concern for conservation. For example, finding fish in a location does not make that location essential. This recognition begs the question of how one identifies the most important habitats for a particular species. We introduce new tools for use when prioritizing habitats for conservation and management, with application to Essential Fish Habitat (EFH). If density-dependent effects can be ignored, then elasticities of population growth rate with respect to adult survival, fecundity, and juvenile survival provide a means of identifying how susceptible the growth rate of the population is to perturbations in vital rates of particular life stages. We develop such a theory and apply it to 16 species of commercially harvested Sebastes rockfishes. We also show that the conclusions may differ significantly depending upon the estimate of mortality rate that is used. This suggests that although estimating mortality rates of fish in the field is difficult, it is crucial to do so. When density-dependent effects are important, we use a stochastic life history model to compute the moderate-term persistence of the stock, an important metric of population biology, as a function of the demographic parameters determined by the habitat. Although developed with fish in mind, the ideas here also apply to other taxa and systems.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Density and intercohort priority effects on larval Salamandra salamandra in temporary pools.

Priority effects, i.e., effects of an early cohort on the performance of a later cohort, are generally studied between, and not within, species. The paucity of intraspecific assessments does not reflect a lack of ecological importance, but the technical problem associated with differentiating between conspecific cohorts. Here, we examine priority and density-dependent effects on larval Salamandra salamandra infraimmaculata. Larvae deposited by their mother early in the season have increased risk of desiccation, as rains at the beginning of the season are less frequent and unpredictable. However, breeding later may incur a high cost through conspecific priority effects, including cannibalism and competition. In an outdoor artificial pool experiment, we established densities of 0, 1, 2, 4 or 6 newly born larvae per pool ( approximately 30 l), and 40 days later, added a second cohort of three newly born larvae to each pool. We differentiated between cohorts using natural individual-specific markings. For the early cohort, increasing density decreased survival and size at metamorphosis, and increased time to metamorphosis. For the late cohort, survival was 100% in pools without early-cohort larvae, but ranged between 13 and 33% in the presence of early-cohort larvae. Time to metamorphosis was significantly longer in the presence of low vs high densities of early-cohort larvae. Results suggest that early-cohort larvae are mainly subjected to exploitative competition and cannibalism mediated by food limitation, and that late-cohort larvae are subjected to cannibalism and interference due to size asymmetry between cohorts. The strong priority effects suggest that Salamandra females could increase their fitness by adjusting the number of larvae they deposit in specific pools to avoid cannibalism and intraspecific competition.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

A life-history perspective on short- and long-term consequences of compensatory growth.

Compensatory or catch-up growth (CG) is widely observed following periods of resource deprivation. Because of this commonness, it is generally assumed that compensatory growth is adaptive, but most theory to date has explicitly ignored considerations of fitness. Following a period of deprivation, when resources become plentiful again, individuals may not respond at all and continue on a "normal" trajectory from a smaller size at age, may exhibit faster-than-normal growth immediately following the end of the period, or may adopt a growth strategy that involves faster-than-normal growth at some later time. Compensating individuals may also overtake control individuals who have been growing normally throughout. We hypothesize that the key to understanding CG is that growth leads to the accumulation of damage at the cellular level that is expressed (and thus must be modeled) at the level of the organism. We show that a life-history model incorporating the mortality consequences of both size and damage provides a framework for understanding compensatory growth. We use the theory to classify physiological and life-history characteristics for which CG is predicted to be the optimal response to deprivation.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Regime, phase and paradigm shifts: making community ecology the basic science for fisheries.

Modern fishery science, which began in 1957 with Beverton and Holt, is ca. 50 years old. At its inception, fishery science was limited by a nineteenth century mechanistic worldview and by computational technology; thus, the relatively simple equations of population ecology became the fundamental ecological science underlying fisheries. The time has come for this to change and for community ecology to become the fundamental ecological science underlying fisheries. This point will be illustrated with two examples. First, when viewed from a community perspective, excess production must be considered in the context of biomass left for predators. We argue that this is a better measure of the effects of fisheries than spawning biomass per recruit. Second, we shall analyse a simple, but still multi-species, model for fishery management that considers the alternatives of harvest regulations, inshore marine protected areas and offshore marine protected areas. Population or community perspectives lead to very different predictions about the efficacy of reserves.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Life-history trade-offs and ecological dynamics in the evolution of longevity.

Longevity is a life-history trait that is shaped by natural selection. An unexplored consequence is how selection on this trait affects diversity and diversification in species assemblages. Motivated by the diverse rockfish (Sebastes) assemblage in the North Pacific, the effects of trade-offs in longevity against competitive ability are explored. A competition model is developed and used to explore the potential for species diversification and coexistence. Invasion analyses highlight that life-history trait trade-offs in longevity can mitigate the effects of competitive ability and favour the coexistence of a finite number of species. Our results have implications for niche differentiation, limiting similarity and assembly dynamics in multispecies interactions.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Oviposition habitat selection in response to risk of predation in temporary pools: mode of detection and consistency across experimental venue.

Natural selection should favor females that avoid ovipositing where risk of predation is high for their progeny. Despite the large consequences of such oviposition behavior for individual fitness, population dynamics, and community structure, relatively few studies have tested for this behavior. Moreover, these studies have rarely assessed the mode of detection of predators, compared responses in prey species that vary in vulnerability to predators, or tested for the behavior in natural habitats. In an outdoor artificial pool experiment, we tested the oviposition responses of two dipteran species, Culiseta longiareolata (mosquito) and Chironomus riparius (midge), to the hemipteran predator, Notonecta maculata. Both dipteran species have similar life history characteristics, but Culiseta longiareolata larvae are highly vulnerable to predation by Notonecta, while Chironomus riparius larvae are not. As their vulnerabilities would suggest, Culiseta longiareolata, but not Chironomus riparius, strongly avoided ovipositing in pools containing Notonecta. An experiment in natural rock pools assessing oviposition by Culiseta longiareolata in response to Notonecta maculata yielded an oviposition pattern highly consistent with that of the artificial pool experiment. We also demonstrated that the cue for oviposition avoidance by Culiseta longiareolata was a predator-released chemical: Notonecta water (without Notonecta replenishment) repelled oviposition for 8 days. Oviposition avoidance and mode of detection of the predator have important implications for how to assess the true impact of predators and for the use of commercially produced kairomones for mosquito control.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Growth, telomere dynamics and successful and unsuccessful human aging.

This paper links mass trajectories with telomere dynamics to construct theoretical models of successful and unsuccessful aging in human beings. It couples parameters of telomere length in somatic cells, as expressed by the terminal restriction fragment (TRF), at birth and the rate of telomere attrition thereafter with nonlinear models of somatic growth to predict the probability of surviving disease free, based on the assumption that telomere length in replicating somatic cells is a surrogate indicator of aging determinants in humans. The models capture aspects of individual variation in successful and unsuccessful aging and the long-term consequences of rapid growth early in life.

Aging↗
PubMed1999

Evolution of Size-Dependent Flowering in Onopordum illyricum: A Quantitative Assessment of the Role of Stochastic Selection Pressures.

We explore the evolution of delayed, size-dependent reproduction in the monocarpic perennial Onopordum illyricum, using a range of mathematical models, parameterized with long-term field data. Analysis of the long-term data indicated that mortality, flowering, and growth were age and size dependent. Using mixed models, we estimated the variance about each of these relationships and also individual-specific effects. For the field populations, recruitment was the main density-dependent process, although there were weak effects of local density on growth and mortality. Using parameterized growth models, which assume plants grow along a deterministic trajectory, we predict plants should flower at sizes approximately 50% smaller than observed in the field. We then develop a simple criterion, termed the "1-yr look-ahead criterion," based on equating seed production now with that of next year, allowing for mortality and growth, to determine at what size a plant should flower. This model allows the incorporation of variance about the growth function and individual-specific effects. The model predicts flowering at sizes approximately double that observed, indicating that variance about the growth curve selects for larger sizes at flowering. The 1-yr look-ahead approach is approximate because it ignores growth opportunities more than 1 yr ahead. To assess the accuracy of this approach, we develop a more complicated dynamic state variable model. Both models give similar results indicating the utility of the 1-yr look-ahead criterion. To allow for temporal variation in the model parameters, we used an individual-based model with a genetic algorithm. This gave very accurate prediction of the observed flowering strategies. Sensitivity analysis of the model suggested that temporal variation in the parameters of the growth equation made waiting to flower more risky, so selected for smaller sizes at flowering. The models clearly indicate the need to incorporate stochastic variation in life-history analyses.

delayed reproduction↗